Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Thursday, 26 June 2003
June 26, 2003 Biovail (BVF)
I am kind of surprised our radar hasn't picked up this stock before today. I don't own any shares but I am aware of the outstanding numbers and track record of this company.
Anyhow, Biovail (BVF) is having a great day today. Currently trading at $49.30 up $3.30 on the day, again of 7.17%. This is a bit larger company than some of our small ones with a market capitalization of $7.28 Billion with 158.3 million shares outstanding and 131.3 million shares floating. The price/earnings is a bit pricey at 74.80 (!). (per Yahoo.com)
Looking at CNN.Money, we find that BVF "applies advanced proprietary controlled release delivery technologies to the development and manufacture of drug products for treatment of major chronic conditions."
The first quarter, 2003, was reported on April 29, 2003: Total revenues increased 23% to $191.4 million from $155.2 million last year. First quarter 2003 diluted earnings per share increased 22% to $.39 from $.32 last year. This was reported on Yahoo.com.
Morningstar.com shows an equally pretty picture with steady revenue growth from $66 million in 1996, $82 million in 1997, $112 million in 1998, $172 million in 1999, $309 million in 2000, and $583 million in the trailing twleve months per Morningstar. Currently extrapolating the first quarter of 2003 we have a rate of $760 million for 2003 going forward.
Free cash flow has increased from $44 million in 1999, $87 million in 2000, and $182 million in the trailing twelve months per morningstar.com. Liabilities are a bit steep relative to assets on this report but with the ample cash flow and increasing revenues/earnings this does not seem to be a problem.
This is a GREAT stock to consider for your portfolio. I do not own any shares....and do not have any cash free to buy some but would certainly consider it if I did! Have a great Thursday.
Drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions, comments, or as always appreciated words of encouragement!
Wednesday, 25 June 2003
June 25, 2003 Biosite (BSTE)
This one I have owned for awhile with a brokerage firm in the Cities (Minneapolis for all of you non-midwesterners!)..This is a managed account and I do not make the selections. But I can see why my advisors liked this one.
According to CNN.Money, Biosite, Inc. "develops, manufactures and markets diagnostic products that improve the quality of patient care and simplify the practice of laboratory medicine." Is that ABSTRUSE enough for you?
On May 1, 2003, BSTE reported their first quarter 2003 results: Per the NYTimes on the web, revenues grew 114% and net profits grew 265% (!).
Five year financials on Morningstar.com shows a beautiful series of bar graphs with revenue of $31.7 million in 1997, $37.1 million in 1998, $43.7 million in 1999, $55.0 million in 2000, $66 million in 2001 and $105 million in 2002. Isn't that spectacular?
Free cash flow has improved from positive $1 million in 2000, $15 million in 2001, $12 million in 2002.
This company has LOADS of cash with $70.9 million of cash on hand compared to current liabilities of $18.1 million and $5.3 million in long term debt. This does not take into consideration the $27.9 million in other current assets reported on Morningstar.
By the way, BSTE is having a GREAT day today trading at $48.15 up $4.20 or 9.55% on the day.
The market cap is $658.9 million and there are only 15.0 million shares outstaqnding with 13.7 million that float. (are the others sinkers?)....yuck
The stock does trade at a kind of high p/e of 39.17...and like I said above I DO own some shares of this stock. But if you just LOOK at the numbers and the bar graphs on morningstar.com, I will let you make your own decision...
Reminds me of the old Alka Seltzer commercial with the mother offering her kid some spicy meatballs...."Try it you'll like it!"...that's kind of how I feel about THIS company!
June 25, 2003 Digital Insight Corp (DGIN)
Heaven forbid but I think I have ANOTHER dot-com here...or am I defining them wrong? Anyhow this one looks nice to me.
According to CNN.Money, Digital Insight "provides Internet banking services to credit unions, banks and savings and loans. Services include online banking, bill payment, cash management, target marketing and eCommerce portal capabilities."
DGIN is currently trading at $17.96 up $2.04 on the day which is a gain of 12.81% per NYTimes on the Web.
I do not own any shares of this. However, just like our last pick, this one looks very intriguing and if I lose all sense of self control......
On April 24, 2003, DGIN reported their first quarter results for the period ending March 31, 2003: revenues for the first quarter increased 35% to $35.5 million from $30.1 million in the first period last year. Net income was $2.9 million or $.09/share
compared to a net loss last year of $34.7 million or ($1.11)/share. This was reported in the NYTimes on the web.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful picture when the 5 year financials are shown: Revenues increase sequentially from $5.1 million in 1997, to $13.2 million in 1998, $26.2 million in 1999, $54.4 million in 2000, $94.6 million in 2001 and $130 million in 2002. If we extrapolate from the current first quarter we get approximately $142 million in revenue for 2003.
Free Cash Flow has ALSO turned positive in the last couple of years from NEGATIVE $60 million in 2000, NEGATIVE $22 million in 2001, to POSITIVE $11 million in 2002.
Morningstar shows LOADS of cash with $74.4 million in cash more than $43.4 million in current liabilities and $6.0 million in long-term liabilities.
So 'What made the stock jump today?' you ask....well they announced a new relationship with Microsoft and you might just want to read more about DGIN on the Net. The stars are aligned for this one!
Have a great day investing and return often!
June 25, 2003 Bankrate, Inc. (RATE)
I had such a LOUSY day yesterday....didn't post any new ones. We got stopped out on our DKS and it then turned around and zoomed up! Sold a couple of others and I will update you on these as we go.
This morning the market was up and the Fed was preparing to cut rates....don't you kind of suspect the market turns LOWER on the NEWS of the cut. That is how it works...things RISE in anticipation and FALL on realization of expectations. Kind of a mind game don't you think?
I scanned some of the movers today, saw RATE and bout 400 shares. So I AM a stockholder of this one. I don't usually like to buy first and let you know later.....but when I DO, I want to tell you about it...transparency you see!
Bankrate, Inc. (RATE) "provides consumers with independent and objective research comparing various banking and credit products, such as mortgages, home equity loands and credit cards through a broad portfolio of Websites and print publications." per CNN.Money.
RATE is having a GREAT day today trading at $10.40 up $1.13 on the day or 12.19%.
On April 30, 2003, Bankrate reported their first quarter results for the quarter ending March 31, 2003: total revenue rose 52% to a record $8.5 million from $5.6 million in 2002, net income was up over 100% to $2 million from $690,000 in 2002 and on a per share basis was up to $.13/share from $.05.
Morningstar shows nice sequential growth from 1998 when $3.5 million in revenue was reported jumping to $12 million in 1999, $15.2 million in 2000, $18.3 million in 2001, and $24 million in 2002. Extrapolating from the current $8.5 million in the first quarter of 2003 would bring us to a $34 million/year rate this year. Certainly, if interest rates start rising...not expected soon..but possible...there might be a quick drop off of refinancing.
Free cash flow has been improving steadily from a negative $18 million in 1999, negative $13 million in 2000, to a positive $1 million in 2001 and $3 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.com.
Morningstar goes on to report an excellent financial picture for RATE with $8.4 million of cash on hand with only $3.8 million of current liabilities and $0.1 million of long term debt. Other current assets are at $3.3 million not even counting the cash.
This is a small company with a market capitalization of $131.7 million with only 14.2 million shares outstanding and a float of 7.10 million shares.
Yahoo reports a p/e of 23.23 so valuation is good.
You can see why I like this one....another dot-com (yikes!)....and bought 300 shares this a.m. Use your own judgement on this! As always keep the 8% stops and drop me a line at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, or most of all words of encouragement!
Tuesday, 24 June 2003
Trading Account Update 6/24/03
Sometimes you never learn about bending rules! FDCC is down today passing my 8% loss and I have sold all shares. Unfortunately LIFC has hit the 8% loss and that is now OUT of the portfolio. Both are great looking stocks....but we will try to maintain our trading discipline. Proceeds will go towards margin debt....not new position! Good luck today...looks like the market wants to bounce back a little...will wait towards later in the session to tell if this holds...Bob
Monday, 23 June 2003
Transparency: FDCC trade
No self-control. That FDCC looked so nice...famous last words? Anyhow, I got rid of my two weakest stocks in my trading portfolio....both underwater by about 5%, ACS and DKS....and bot 300 of FDCC. I liked the low p/e, high growth rate, low # shares and the consistency. Anyhow, I am now an owner of some shares. Wish me luck.
June 23, 2003 Factual Data Corp. (FDCC)
O.k....I wasn't too crazy about the pineapple stock that I just posted....Del Monte Fresh fruits...I mean what is the growth potential for fresh fruits? Just kidding...but their revenue growth WASN'T as dynamic or exciting as the one I have for you now.
Factual Data Corporation (FDCC) is per Cnn.money, a provider of "a broad range of information services including business-to-business services to the mortgage lending industry. In addition to company operated offices, FDCC provides services from franchised offices."
FDCC is having a GREAT day today in a LOUSY market! They are trading at $19.18 up $1.25 or 6.97% on the day. The stock trades at a reasonable p/e of 14.63 and is a SMALL company with a market cap of $119.0 million. There are only 6.2070 million shares outstanding.
On April 24, 2003, FDCC reported, per NYTimes on the Web, that total revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2003, increased 55.6% to $21.0 million from $13.5 million in the same period last year. Net income was $2.9 million or $.47/share compared to $1.3 million, or $.21 per share for the same period in 2002. This is OUTSTANDING performance.
Morningstar.com 5 year financials demonstrate an OUTSTANDING sequential growth from $3.5 million in 1997 to $9.9 million in 1998, $25.8 million in 1999, $31.3 million in 2000, $51.2 million in 2001, and $63 million in 2002. Extrapolating the current quarter would give us a revenue rate of $84 million in 2003.
Free cash flow, although small, has been improving nicely from $2 million in 2000 to $8 million in 2001 and $9 million in 2002.
The company is adequately solvent with $7.8 million in cash and $8.4 million in other current assets compared to $14.2 million in current liabilities. There is $8.3 million in long-term liabilities as well...but with the improving cash flow...I do not think this will be a problem imho.
I do not own any shares of this stock...but it is a formula for success....relatively good valuation with explosive revenue and earnings growth CONSISTENTLY for the past 5 years. My kind of stock....and if Dick's hits the 8% loss, I might bend my rules a bit....I know....should stick to them...but anyhow....would love to find a way to own some shares of this company!
Have a great day....and again....please feel free to drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org with your comments, criticisms...etc.! Bob
June 23, 2003 Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Kind of a bearish day in the market with the Dow down 130 and the NASDAQ down 30 as I write. Medicine isn't always pleasant tasting but a little pull-back in here is just what the doctor ordered! Hopefully we will see support after a pull-back of 30-40%....then let the good times roll!
Looking at the stocks...we find Fresh Del Monte Produce on the greatest percentage gainers. This has been a steady if not exciting performer on a fundamental basis.
FDP is currently trading at $26.14 up $1.25 or 5.02% on the day. The stock is fairly cheap valuation wise with a trailing p/e of 6.58. The market cap is $1.5 billion. And they even pay a small dividend of $.10/share which was raised in the last 12 months...paid per quarter.
According to CNN.Money, "FDP produces, distributes and markets fresh produce. The Co's products are marketed throughout the world in over 50 countries under the DEL MONTE brand name."
Looking at the latest quarter, on April 29th, per the NYTimes on the web, they announced the financial results for the first quarter ending March 28, 2003: Earnings per share were $1.55/diluted share compared to $1.10 in the same period last year. Net sales rose to $643.8 million compared to $537.4 million last year. I mean THAT is a lot of pineapple!
Morningstar.com shows a consistent growth in revenue from $1.45 billion in 1997, $1.6 billion in 1998, $1.74 billion in 1999, $1.85 billion in 2000, $1.928 billion in 2001. Unfortunately no results for 2002 are listed on the website.
Free cash flow has improved from a negative $65 million in 1999, $20 billion in 2000, and $174 million in 2001.
Assets and liabilities are a little bit weighted towards the liabilities with $250 million in current liabilities reported...although there are $13 million in cash and $368.9 million in other current assets present. Long-term debt is at $396.1 million.
This stock is a steady grower with relatively cheap valuation...per the p/e....and with the free cash flow, hopefully will see some improvement in the balance sheet.
I don't own any shares of this stock....and if you read my recent blog, I don't have any cash available in my trading account to make any purchases now....but you may be interested in a little pineapple for YOUR portfolio.
Please let me know if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement for me....at bobsadviceforstocks.lycos.com.
Transparency: trading update
Market is a bit overbought and my margin is a little high! Peeled off 100 of AHMH and 50 of DRS this morning on the open. Was a wash with a small gain on DRS and a small loss on AHMH....otherwise will stay with our usual trading rules. Will be checking on those largest gainers later this morning! Bob
Sunday, 22 June 2003
June 21, 2003 How are we doing #2...
Since there aren't any markets open today, this is a nice time to review some of our past picks. Last weekend we looked at our first week of picks...Starting May 12th. Let's look at the following week:
Picks that week included Bradley Pharmaceuticals which on 5/19 was trading at $15.77. Currently, as of June 20, 2003, BDY closed at $17.00. This is a $1.23 increase or a 7.79% increase in a month.
On 5/20/03, we chose Home Depot (HD) for our list. At that time HD was trading at $31.10. Currently, at the close on 6/20/03, HD closed at $32.49, an increase of $1.39 or a 4.47% increase.
On 5/21/03, Synovis Life Technology was selected. SYNO was trading at $14.39 at that time and now one month later, on 6/20/03, is trading at $19.28 at the close or an increase of $4.89 or a 33.9% increase in the month!
Enzo Biochem (ENZ) was picked on 5/22 when it was trading at $20.40. Currently as of 6/20/03, ENZ closed at $23.70 an increase of $3.30 or a 16.2% increase in the month.
May 22nd found us selecting Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS). This sporting goods firm which recently came public was trading at $29.75 on 5/22/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, DKS closed at $33.26. This was a $3.51 increase or an 11.8% increase on the month.
New Century Finance, NCEN, was trading at $47.02 when it was selected for our list on 5/22/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, NCEN closed at $44.21 or a drop of $2.81 or a drop of 6.0%.
NVR is our most expensive stock on this list trading at $394.86 on 5/23/03 the date we sellected it. Currently, as of 6/20/03 NVR is at $406.50 a gain of $11.64 or a gain of 2.94%.
RRGB or Red Robin Gourmet Burger was at $17.00 when it was selected on 5/23/03. Currently, as of 6/20/03, RRGB closed at $18.93 or an increase of $1.93 or an increase of 11.4%.
Except for NCEN the rest of the stocks that we have held a month have performed nicely. Certainly, a lot of this has to do with the strong market, but at lease we can say that with this system we are participating with the rally.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Again, feel free to email me at email@example.com with any of your questions, comments, or words of encouragement!
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