Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Friday, 26 September 2003
September 26, 2003 Research in Montion, LTD. (RIMM)
How about a bowl of blackberries for breakfast? Anyhow, terrible pun, but Research in Motion, the company behind the popular Blackberry communication device, is having a nice day. I do not own any shares of this stock. Currently Research in Motion (RIMM) is trading at $38.24 up $2.52 on the day or 7.05%. The stock is actually drifting lower this morning as the market drifts in the red.
According to money.cnn.com, RIMM "...is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the mobile communication market."
RIMM reported yesterday their second quarter results: Revenue for the quarter ending August 30, 2003, was $125.7 million up 20% from $104.5 million the PRIOR quarter (SEQUENTIALLY) and up 70% (!) from $73.4 million in the same quarter last year.
Net income for the quarter was $2.1 million or $.03 per share compared to a net loss of ($8.2) million or ($.11)/share the prior quarter. Unfortunately, the news report did not include the prior year's result.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful growth in revenue from $20.9 million in 1998, $47.3 million in 1999, $85.0 million in 2000, $221.3 million in 2001, $294.1 million in 2002, and extrapolating the current quarter would get us to about $500 million (!) in 2003.
Unfortunately, the latest *'s on free cash flow are NOT as pretty: ($37) million in 2000, ($75) million in 2001, ($56) million in 2002, and no numbers in 2003. I expect that with this profitable quarter, the free cash flow has also improved but this is not a strength for this firm.
This company is FLUSH with cash with $644.6 million of cash and $92.8 million of other current assets compared to a mere $59.5 million of current liabilities, and $11.9 million of long-term liabilities. Certainly, we can wait awhile for the cash flow to improve, but would rather see this neutral or improving than continuing the present 'burn'.
This company has a market cap of $2.95 Billion, with a forward (!) p/e of 61.59, a PEG ratio of 4.38 and a price/sales of 7.05...this is NO BARGAIN. There are 77.37 million shares outstanding and 57.30 million of them that float. I am not alone in my skepticism of the price here as there are 7.82 million shares out short representing 13.66% of the float or 3.047 days of trading (as of 8/8/03).
This is a fabulous company. However, you will pay top dollar to purchase these shares. That doesn't mean the stock cannot go higher...and I am not going to start being a value investor just yet....but all things being considered try to buy the best growth at the most reasonable price....(GARP). I would like to see the cash flow turn profitable...and the earnings pick up to get us a bit better price.
Thursday, 25 September 2003
September 25, 2003 WD-40 Company (WDFC)
I try to be eclectic here (lol). This is kind of a Peter Lynch sort of stock. Who DOESN'T have a can of WD-40 to take care 'of what ails you'? Anyhow, this stock showed up today on the lists...and it looks like a pretty good fit. (If we cannot fit it in, we could just spray a bit of WD-40 and push...yuk yuk).
Enough of my humor, money.cnn.com reports that "WD-40 manufactures a line of both lubricant and heavy-duty hand cleaning products aimed at the hardware, do-it-yourself, automotive and other retail and industrial markets. Products include WD-40, 3 IN-ONE and Lava." The stock trading under WDFC is doing well today; as I write, WDFC is trading at $31.20, up $2.45 or 8.52%.
Yesterday, WDFC reported results for the fourth quarter and the 2003 fiscal year. As reported on the NYTimes on the web, net sales for the fourth quarter ending August 31, 2003 (why do all of these companies have all of these unique fiscal years?), were $73.4 million, an increase of 11.4% over sales of $65.9 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Net income for the quarter was $10.3 million or $.61/share, compared to $8.6 million, or $.52/share last year...an increase of 19.8%.
Morningstar.com shows a steady, and accelerating revenue growth trend: $144 million in revenue in 1998, $146 million in 1999, $146 million in 2000, $164 million in 2001, $217 million in 2002, $238 million in 2003 (just reported yesterday!).
Free cash flow has been nice and improving: $18 million in 2000, $18 million in 2001, $34 million in 2002, and $40 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.
The financial condition is healthy: $32.3 million in cash, $42.9 million in other current assets with $35.6 million in current liabilities and $86.9 million in long-term debt. This is slightly more debt than some of our other companies we have looked at but with the increasing free cash flow, this should not be a problem imho.
This company has a market cap of $516.1 million with a reasonable trailing p/e of 16. The PEG ratio is reported at 2.49...but with latest growth this appears to be overstated. This stock DOES have a dividend (a nice added bonus), currently yielding, per Yahoo, 2.78%. The last stock split was 2:1 in 1997. There are 16.64 million shares outstanding and 15.30 million of them float. 50.5% of the float is held by institutions. There are only 520,000 shares out short but this represents, as of 8/8/03, 9.63 days of trading with average volume so we could be witnessing a 'short squeeze'.
This is a nice company and you might wish to pick up a few shares in here. I do not own any shares....there are so many issues that I like...and I don't want to repeat that "M" word (shhhh margin)....so I cannot buy everything. Shucks. Anyhow, I hope you enjoyed this review and please excure my irreverant humor...did you notice?
September 25, 2003 Cree, Inc. (CREE)
Lo and behold, I now have a semiconductor stock for you. First we had a few dot.com's which actually have done quite well....dabbled in the China internet frenzy with SOHU, and yes...a chip stock! The stock isn't perfect with a hiccup (I checked on that spelling and 'hiccup' is preferred over the older 'hiccough'!)..in revenue growth...but I believe we should look at those that have had interruptions in their steady revenue growth AS LONG AS they are BACK ON TRACK. (excuse my shouting).
According to money.cnn.com, Cree, Inc. (CREE) "...develops, manufactures, and markets silicon carbide-based semiconductor materials and electronic devices." CREE is having a nice day in a sloppy market today trading as I write at $22.16 up $2.80 on the day or 14.46%. (better than most money market accounts after 7 years lol)
This Durham, North Carolina company reported their fourth quarter results on July 29, 2003, on PRNewswire-FirstCall, as reported by the NYTimes on the Web: for the first quarter of fiscal 2003, record revenue of $64,061,000 a 69% increase (!) over the $37,800,000 reported for the same quarter in 2002. Net income was $11.4 million or $.15/diluted share compared to a loss of ($22.5) million or ($.31) per diluted share last year.
Morningstar.com shows an almost linear growth in revenue from $44.0 million in 1998, $62.4 million in 1999, $108.6 million in 2000, $177.2 million in 2001, $155.4 million in 2002 (the HICCUP), $203.6 million in 2003 and now, if you extrapolate the current quarter would get us over $240 million for 2004.
Free cash flow is also looking up: ($15) million in 2000, ($31) million in 2001, ($3) million in 2002 and $13 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.
The financial condition of this company per Morningstar looks FABULOUS...with $121.7 million in CASH and $67.8 million in other current assets vs. $29.4 million in current liabilities and NO long-term liabilities.
CREE is not a small cap stock with a Market Cap of $1.62 Billion. The trailing p/e is 42.09 which isn't too bad considering recent return to profitability and explosive growth. The PEG ratio supports this at 1.05.
There are 73.3 million shares outstanding, per Yahoo, with 70.10 million of them that float. There are a LOT of shares out short...which suggests somebody thinks this is overpriced...but also sets us up for a 'short squeeze' as all those short sellers try to cover their borrowed shares...this represents 7.933 days of trading or 30.25% of the float as of 8/8/03.
No dividend is paid and the last split was a 2:1 split in December, 2000.
I do like this stock a lot. I think I need to be less rigid on the linear revenue growth...but this hiccup has been overcome and company appears to be on track to a dynamite year. I do not own any shares of this but would certainly think of buying some...it meets my criteria...but as you know....it is the margin. the margin, the margin...that holds me back lol.
Thanks for stopping by!
Wednesday, 24 September 2003
September 24, 2003 America's Car-Mart, Inc. (CRMT)
You know we have so many stocks posted here we are starting to repeat themes. One of our earlier posts was CarMax (KMX)that has been a good performer for us. This stock, I happened to notice yesterday, and I am not sure WHY I didn't post it, except it was a busy day....lol. Anyhow, the stock showed up AGAIN today in the lists, and it looks pretty nice to me.
I do not own any shares of this company. According to money.cnn.com, America's Car-Mart (CRMT) "...sells and finances the sale of used automobiles and trucks principally to consumers with limited or damaged credit histories." A little like NCEN as well it seems. Currently as I write, CRMT is trading at $29.61 up $1.75 or 6.28% on the day.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful growth in revenue from $30 million in 1999, $91 million in 2000, $107 million in 2001, $128 million in 2002 and $155 million in 2003.
On September 10, 2003, CRMT reported its first quarter results for the quarter ending July 31, 2003. Importantly, at the same time, they also raised their earnings 'guidance' for 2004. This optimism is critically important to the subsequent price rise experienced by this equity. The results were reported on Business Wire on yahoo.com: Revenue grew 20% to $43.3 million compared to $36.1 million in 2002. Income increased 27% to $4.4 million or $.55 per diluted share compared to $3.4 million of $.43 per diluted share in 2002. Sales increased 15% to 6,066 vehicles in the current quarter compared to 5,273 vehicles in the prior year.
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find steady revenue growth from $30.0 million in 1999, $91.0 million in 2000, $106.8 million in 2001, $127.9 million in 2002, and $154.9 million in 2003.
Recently, free cash flow has been improving with ($8) million reported in 2001, ($1) million in 2002, $6 million in 2003.
Assets/Liabilities appear favorably balanced with only $0.8 million in cash reported but $96.2 million in other current assets vs. $8.7 million in current liabilities and $27.1 milion in long-term liabilities.
Looking at Yahoo, we find this to be a small company with a market cap of $222.5 million. The trailing p/e is quite reasonable at 15.06. Price/sales good at 1.29. (I think anything close to 1 is reasonably priced for retail...imho)
There are only 7.51 million shares outstanding and 5.50 million of them that float. Only 181,000 shares are out short as of 8/8/03.
Actually, for a used car company, I like the numbers. This business is executing well with growing revenue and earnings, free cash flow, and a price that is down to earth. I don't own any shares but wouldn't hesitate to pick up some....would rather buy though in the midst of a stronger market.
Thanks again for stopping by! Please visit again and feel free to share this 'URL' with your friends!
September 24, 2003 Multimedia Games, Inc. (MGAM)
Hello friends! This is our second gaming stock I believe on this site. The list gets so long it is hard for ME to remember all of our posts. I hope you enjoy reading them. Anyhow, yesterday I didn't find much that met my criteria on the movers....but this morning came across Multimedia Games, Inc. (MGAM) even though the rest of the market is a bit anemic and is pulling back as I write.
Multimedia Games, according to money.cnn.com, "...designs and develops interactive Class II bingo and Class III video lottery games and related electronic player stations and equipment that are marketed to Native American bingo halls located throughout the U.S." If MGAM does anything like the performance of IGT the past twelve months, this could be a real winner! In any case, some people are 'hitting the jackpot' today with MGAM, for as I write, the stock is trading at $34.30 up $4.35 on the day or 14.52%.
On July 30, 2003, according to the NYTimes on the Web from Business Wire, MGAM reported their third quarter results for the quarter ending June 30 2003. Listen to these results(!): net revenue jumped 46.7% to $37,9 million from $25.8 million last year, and Net Income was up 29.5% from $6.8 million to $8.9 million this year..or diluted eps was $.60 vs $.47 last year, a 27.7% increase.
Looking at Morningstar.com, we find revenue of $70.5 million in 1998, $88.9 million in 1999, $96.8 million in 2000, $131.8 million in 2001, $291.0 million in 2002, and $330 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has been improving: $4 million in 2000, ($1) million in 2001, $2 million in 2002, and $3 million in trailing twelve months.
Assets/liabilities look excellent with $25.1 million in cash and $13.5 million in other current assets vs. $22.3 million in current liabilities and $8.5 million in long-term liabilities.
This stock actually looks CHEAP with a trailing p/e of 14.06, a price to sales of 1.13, and a PEG ratio of 0.66. The market cap. is $447.7 million with 13.12 million shares outstanding and 11.30 million of them floating. There are LOTS of shares out SHORT, with 2.18 million of them reported as of 8/8/03. Beats me why they sold short but now they are going to have to COVER THEM...yippee..if you are long!
I don't own any shares of this issue but certainly will look later at picking up some. I will give you a headstart on this....but things do look interesting!
Thanks for stopping by!
Tuesday, 23 September 2003
September 23, 2003 "Trading Transparency" DRS
The market is acting a bit 'ill' and I didn't like coughing up $500 for the margin account to keep it above water....so in the face of continued weakness in the defense sector, I sold the 150 shares of DRS Technologies (DRS)...and will add to my margin reserve. No new purchases right now until we see a healthier stock market. Bob
Monday, 22 September 2003
September 22, 2003 Bio-Reference Laboratories, Inc. (BRLI)
A lot of investors like the low-priced, small-cap stocks. Seems they like to own MORE shares with less money...kind of 'more bang for the buck' I guess. Anyhow, this one may be an issue for you!
Bio-Reference Laboratories (BRLI) is having a great day today trading at $11.63 as I write, up $.63 or 5.73% on the day. According to money.cnn.com, BRLI "...operates a clinical lab that offers chemical diagnostic tests such as blood and urine analysis, blood chemistry, hematology services, serology and other tissue analysis."
Per BUSINESS WIRE, as reported on NYTimes on the Web, BRLI reported their third quarter results for the period ending July 31, 2003. Third quarter revenues were $28,919,575 for the quarter compared to $24,893,138 in 2002. Pre-tax net income was $3.0 million compared to $1.5 million last year. After taxes earnings and earnings per share increased 53% and 50% respectively to $2.3 million or $.18/share compared to $1.5 million or $.12/share in 2002. Are you confused yet? Anyhow, the last quarter results were good...and that is what I am checking for in this space.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful revenue growth picture from $47 million in 1998, $54 million in 1999, $66 million in 2000, $81 million in 2001, $97 million in 2002 and if we extrapolate the current quarter we would have about $110 million for 2003.
Free cash flow, while small has been positive and improving: ($3) million in 2000, $1 million in 2001, $4 million in 2002, and $3 million in the trailing twelve months.
Looking at the balance sheet, we find $3.7 million in cash with $32.6 million in other current assets, this balances well against the $22.6 million in current liabilities and only $1.6 million in long-term liabilities.
This is a small capitalization company with a market cap, per Yahoo, of $136.93 million, the trailing p/e is 23.91, the price/sales ratio is reasonable at 1.20. There are 11.41 million shares outstanding with only 7.90 million of them that float. As of 8/8/03, there were only 148,000 shares out short.
I do not own any shares of this company and as I have whined about earlier, my margin level is far too high to be buying any right now. However, again, this is a company that looks good and if you like the small cap nature and low price, might be the one for you! Thanks for stopping by!
September 22, 2003 TBC Corp. (TBCC)
O.K.....I sure do start a lot of these posts with "o.k."....am glad there aren't any English teachers of mine out there...or are there? Anyhow, the market is lousy today (so far) with the Dollar down internationally and overseas markets correcting...in fact in my trading portfolio I transferred $500 into the account as the margin was getting extended...and nothing had hit an 8% loss. Well with all of this doom and gloom, how about a company that sells tires? According to money.cnn.com, TBC "...is engaged in the marketing and distribution of tires in the automotive replacement market. The company also acts as a franchisor of independent retail tire and automotive service stores."
Currently, as I write, TBC is having a great day in the market....trading at $24.13, up $1.38 on the day or 6.07%. Not too shabby in the sea of red ink today.
On July 23, 2003, TBC reported results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2003. As reported by PRNewswire on NYTimes on the Web, net sales increased 14.7% to $328.8 million compared to $286.7 million in the prior year. Net income increased 15% to $7.9 million or $.35/diluted share vs $6.8 million or $.31/diluted share in the year-ago period.
Morningstar.com shows revenue growth from $0.6 billion in 1998, $0.7 billion in 1999, $0.9 billion in 2000, $1.0 billion in 2001, $1.1 billion in 2002, and extrapolating the current quarter for the whole year in 2003 would get us to the neighborhood of $1.2 billion for 2003.
Free cash flow, while not consistent, has been positive recently: $18 million in 2000, ($10) million in 2001, $30 million in 2002, and $22 million in the trailing twelve months.
Assets/Liabilities overall looks favorable with $2.7 million in cash and $340.1 million in other current assets vs. $166.0 million in current liabilities and $101.0 million in long-term liabilities.
The Market Cap, per Yahoo.com, is a moderate $527.6 million with a trailing p/e of 17.23, a PEG ratio of 1.51, and a price/sales of 0.43. Overall, the stock is very reasonably priced. Currently there are 21.71 million shares outstanding with 19.90 million of them that float. There are only 78,000 shares out short which represents 0.39% of the float and 0.684 days of trading volume.
The stock moved today on news of an acquisition of National Tire & Battery from Sears for $260 million in cash. I actually like this stock. The p/e is reasonable, the growth is steady, and it is a business I can understand. I don't own any shares and with my margin account under pressure, I don't anticipate acquiring any, but this may well be a nice purchase for one of you!
Thanks for stopping by! I hope that this week brings you good fortune.
Sunday, 21 September 2003
September 21, 2003 "How are we doing?" A look back on the Week of August 4, 2003
For those of you who may be new to this website, you will realize that I like to give my opinion on stocks. However, to keep me honest, and for you to better assess the validity of this approach, I like to spend the weekend on the site updating the prices on the past picks and looking back at our suggestions a week at a time. Currently we are using about a 5 week trailing view. As we get more experience here, we will soon start looking back six months at a time.
I was fairly busy the week of August 4, 2003. I posted 11 issues: Atrion Corp (ATRI), Intier Automotive (IAIA), and Mylan Laboratories (MYL) on August 4, 2003. FTI Consulting (FCN), Zimmer Holding (ZMH), Pulte Homes (PHM) and DRS Technology (DRS) on August 6, 2003, Jos. A. Banks Clothiers (JOSB) on August 7, 2003, and eSpeed (ESPD) and Emulex (ELX) on August 8, 2003.
ATRI was trading at $34.70 when we listed it here. As of close of trading on 9/19/03, ATRI was $41.64, a gain of $6.94 or 20%. Intier (IAIA) was $16.50 when we listed it, currently as of 9/19/03, IAIA closed at $17.00, a gain of $.50 or 3%. Mylan (MYL) was trading at $34.50 when listed here, it closed Friday (9/19) at $40.27, a gain of $5.77 or a gain of 16.7%.
FCN was listed on 8/6/03 at $21.90. FCN closed on 9/19/03 at $23.06, a gain of $1.16 or 5.3%. Zimmer Holding (ZMH) was $49.79 on 8/6/03 when listed. Zimmer closed Friday (9/19/03) at $53.69 for a gain of $3.90 or 7.8%. Pulte Homes (PHM) was at $63.86 when listed on Bobs Advice on 8/6/03. PHM closed at $68.55 on 9/19/03 for a gain of $4.69 or 7.3%. DRS Tech, one of our few losers during this period, and one I personally own, was listed at $27.98 on 8/6/03. DRS closed Friday, 9/19/03 at $25.64, for a loss of ($2.34) or (8.4%). Finally, Sunrise (SRZ) was also listed on 8/6/03 at $23.95. SRZ closed Friday, 9/19/03 at $26.60 for a gain of $2.65 or 11.1%.
Jos. A. Banks (JOSB) was listed on 8/7/03 at $44.16. JOSB has done well since then closing on 9/19/03 at $45.86 for a gain of $1.70 or a gain of 3.8%.
The final two selections of the week were eSpeed listed on 8/8/03 at $18.98. ESPD closed on 9/19/03 at $26.09 for a gain of $7.11 or 37.4%. Emulex was also listed on 8/8/03 with a price of $22.46. ELX closed Friday, 9/19/03 at $26.93 for a gain of $4.47 or 19.9%.
Overall this was an EXCELLENT week for stock picks with ten stocks gaining and one losing with an average gain of 11.3% over the short 6 week period.
Thanks again for stopping by and I am looking forward to an active week of stock picks and thoughts right here on Bob's Advice.
Friday, 19 September 2003
September 19, 2003 Stratasys, Inc. (SSYS)
Something telling about our posts. I am finding stocks that pretty much fit our criteria but you will notice that the last several I have complained about the p/e. Maybe stocks ARE getting a bit richly valued (?)....or are we late at getting to them? I do think, that since we are looking over the long-term with this approach, the timing isn't critical, it is the owning of the right companies.
Stratasys (SSYS), according to money.cnn.com, "...develops, manufactures and market prototyping devices that allow engineers and designers to create models and prototypes out of plastic and other materials directly from computer-aided design (CAD) workstations." I do not own any shares of this company. SSYS is having a GREAT day in the market, currently trading at $50.04 up $4.32 or 9.45% on the day as I write.
On July 28, 2003, SSYS reported their second quarter results for the quarter ending June 30, 2003: revenues for the second quarter were $12.1 million, a 19% increase over $10.1 million last year. Net income was $1.5 million or $.25/share compared to $.5 million or $.09/share last year.
Revenue has grown, although not consistently, from $32.4 million in 1998, $37.6 million in 1999, $35.6 million in 2000 (a hiccup), $37.6 million in 2001, $39.8 million in 2002, and extrapolating the current quarter would get us to about $48 million for 2003.
Free cash flow has also improved nicely the last few years from $0 in 2000, $2 million in 2001, $6 million in 2002, and $9 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.com.
Looking at the balance sheet we find $17.5 million in cash, more than enough to cover the $9.0 million in current liabilities and $2.1 million in long-term debt. In addition, Morningstar reports that SSYS has $17.1 million of other current assets. This company is financially very sound imho.
This is a pretty SMALL company overall with a market cap of $287.21 million. The trailing p/e is moderately high at 43.96 but the PEG ratio is only 0.86 suggesting a reasonable valuation and p/e in light of the growth rate. There are only 5.80 million shares outstanding and 4.90 million of them float. There are 426,000 shares out short representing 8.69% of the float or 1.13 days of trading.
Overall, I like this company and it deserves a second look. Like I usually say, I like a LOT of companies but have only so much money to invest...do you know that feeling? If this is your kind of company, then jump right in! Remember to hang on to those 8% stops so that you don't find yourself with growing losses.
Have a great weekend. I will try to update the prices on the main website http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com (the URL should be on the left)...as well as the current trading portfolio (actual holdings in my Fidelity account) and gains/losses. Have a GREAT weekend everyone. I hope if you were in the path of Isabel you didn't suffer too badly....
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