"Trading Transparency" DIGE
Hello Friends! Looks like I am back to 24 positions. Digene (DIGE), a stock I LOVE, but is not performing like I would LOVE IT to do, hit an 8% loss in the portfolio. In light of the significant margin, and my insistence on the rules...at least on the downside, I sold it this morning. I sold 120 shares, my entire position, at $35.05. Digene was recently purchased on 12/17/03 at $38.07. Initially this stock was a screamer, and I peeled off 30 shares recently on 1/27/04 with a GAIN of $278.03.

Also today, AAII reported good quarterly result but had apparently some reservations about the upcoming quarter. The stock has dropped about $5 on the day, but I still have about a 60% gain...and have sold this issue several times peeling off profits. I sold ELAB and FIC a bit early I suspect, so will try to see how this trades as the day progresses and try NOT to sell on what appears to be possibly not major news (?). This is ALL a learning process for me as well...should we sell at the first break in price?

If you have any comments or this or anything else on the BLOG, please feel free to post it right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

February 4, 2004 Avon Products, Inc. (AVP)
Hello Friends! I am pretty amazed that in the midst of this awful day in the market, especially on the NASDAQ, I am finding selections for this BLOG. I am not sure how MANY picks I have made on stocks...but must be over a couple of hundred. Anyhow, Avon was calling today on the NYSE! Avon Products (AVP) was one of the top performers on the NYSE and had a couple of analyst upgrades today along with a nice earnings report. They closed at $68.29, up $2.98 on the day or 4.56%.

According to the "snapshot" on Money.cnn.com, Avon is "...a global manufacturer and marketer of beauty and related products including cosmetics, fragrance and toiletries, gifts and decorative apparel and fashion jewelry and accessories."

Yesterday, after the close, Avon announced the fourth quarter 2003 earnings results and the 'street' liked what it saw! For the quarter, the company earned $261.3 million or $1.09/share compared to $193 million or $.80/share in the prior year. This exceeded First Call expectations of $1.04/share. Revenues increased 14% to $2.11 billion in the quarter compared with $1.85 billion the prior year. Since AVP is a multinational corporation, much of its sales are affected positively by the falling dollar. Indeed, even after adjusting for the currency changes, the sales increased 9%.

Looking at Morningstar.com for "5-Yr Restated" financials, we find that revenue growth has been solid but not overwhelming increasing from $5.2 billion in 1998, to $6.6 billion in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have grown almost uninterrupted from $1.02/share in 1998, to $2.49/share in the trailing twelve months.

This company generates a lot of free cash, improving from $129 million of free cash flow in 2000 to $451 million, almost half a BILLION dollars of free cash, in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks adequate if not debt-free, with $384.6 million of cash and $1,651.9 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover the current liabilities of $1,365.7 million as listed on Morningstar, but not enough to also pay off the significant long-term liabilities of $1,810.1 million.

If we check out the "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that this is certainly a LARGE cap stock with a market cap of $16.15 billion. The trailing p/e isn't too bad at 24.59 and the forward p/e, based on 2004 estimates, is a bit better at 21.48. Even with the moderate p/e, the value isn't that great as the growth isn't that impressive: the PEG is at 1.90, and the price/sales ratio at 2.25.

There are 236.51 million shares outstanding with 170.30 million of them that float per Yahoo. As of 1/8/04, there are 3.17 million shares out short, representing 1.86% of the float or 2.411 trading days. The company DOES pay a little dividend of $1.12/share yielding 1.64%. The last stock split was a 2:1 split which was executed on 9/14/98.

Overall, this company has a nice scent to it :). What else could a guy say? They make nice hand cream? But seriously, if you would like a large cap company, that pays a dividend, has steady growth, and pretty nice numbers, this stock may be for you. As for me, I would rather get a bit more bang for my buck. I like faster growth and lower PEG ratios...and am not as needy of a dividend. Just my angle I guess.

Thanks again for stopping by. Be sure to do your own due diligence on any stock pick on this site and consult freely with your investment advisor. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right on the website, or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Thanks!

Bob

February 4, 2004 Hain Celestial Group (HAIN)
How's this one to spice up your portfolio! The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN), according to the money.cnn.com "snapshot" is "...a natural, specialty and snack food company, selling, marketing and distributing a range of natural foods, cooking oils, medically directed snacks and specialty and herb teas." I do not own any of these shares directly, but as a matter of fact my stock club does have a few shares that we purchased a few months ago.

HAIN had a great day today in the face of a LOUSY market. (I am close to hitting my 8% stop on CREE, a high tech firm that was a recent purchase....maybe we will get a rebound tomorrow?) Hain closed at $22.55 up $1.38 or 6.52% on the day.

Guess What? You won't believe it (jk), but what drove HAIN up in price today on the heels of a LOUSY market...was a GREAT earnings report. HAIN released today, before the opening, the second quarter results. For the second quarter ended December 31, 2003, HAIN reported it earned $10.4 million or $.29/share up from $8.19 milion or $.24/share a year ago. These earnings were actually a MISS by a penny based on a survey of 10 analysts...but I guess this news, along with the news of a soon to be introduced array of low-carb products, was enough to light up the fuse of ATKINS-crazy investors! Revenue for the quarter rose 16% to $142.8 million from $123 million a year ago...but again this was "below Wall Street's mean estimate of $148.6 million."

Looking at Morningstar.com "5-yr restated" financials we find that revenue has been growing very steadily from $315.8 million in 1999 to $497.1 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have been erratic with $.51 reported in 1999, dropping to a loss of $(.41)/share in 2000, back up to $.68 in 2001, down to $.09 in 2002, but increasing since then from $.79 in 2003 to $.84 in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has been positive but again inconsistent with $9 million in 2001, $1 million in 2002, $13 million in 2003, and $8 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet appears healthy, although not loaded with cash listed at $12.9 million, they do report $154.8 million in other current assets. This is compared to $77 million in current liabilities and $74.1 million in long-term liabilities. Looks o.k. to me!

Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we see that the Market Cap is a small $772.0 million with a reasonable trailing p/e of 26.85. Forward p/e (fye 30 Jun 05) is 17.50. The PEG isn't bad at 1.33 (anything close to or under 1.0 is great), and price/sales also reasonable at 1.46. There are 34.2 million shares outstanding with 27.50 million of them that float. As of 1/8/04, there are 1.06 million shares out short, representing 3.87% of the float or 5.917 trading days. (What terrible stuff do these short sellers SEE in this stock?) They may very well be feeling a bit of a squeeze with this stock price rise.

Overall, I like this stock a lot. If I were selling CREE today, which I came close, I would probably be thinking about adding this stock as a position....but you KNOW I have already filled my 25 position portfolio...at least for now...and have LOADS of margin which will truly be a problem if this downdraft continues!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com As always, remember to do your own 'due diligence' and consult with your investment advisors before making any decisions based on information on this BLOG or website!

Bob

February 4, 2004 American Dental Partners (ADPI)
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. I hope your week goes better than the Dow Jones! Do you remember that GREAT Musical Little Shop of Horrors....one of the great numbers in that show was "Be a Dentist"....Steve Martin sure played that to the hilt. Anyhow, how about another Dental stock for you stock fans? We have Sybron Dental Systems both on the Blog and in my trading portfolio....and here is one that is new to me...and I do not own any shares.

American Dental Partners is having a GREAT day...trading at $13.00/share up $1.20 or 10.17% as I write. According to money.cnn.com, ADPI "...is a provider of dental practice management services to multi-disciplinary dental group practices in selected markets in the U.S."

ADPI filed their latest quarterly earnings report On November 5, 2003. For the three months ended September 30, 2003, revenue was $41.7 million, a 11.2% increase over the net revenue of $37.5 million in the prior year. Found in another article on the New York Times on the Net, revealed that diluted net earnings per share for the quarter were $.20 compared to $.15 in the same quarter in 2002, a 33% increase.

Looking at the , we see a fairly nice picture of revenue growth, with a steady increase in revenue from $84.1 million in 1998 to $159.5 million in revenue in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have been unimpressive, reporting from $.78/share in 1999 to $.73/share in the trailing twelve months. The latest quarter is a bit more impressive. Free cash flow has also been improving nicely from $1 million in 2000, to $14 million in the trailing twelve months.

Looking at the Morningstar.com numbers as to the balance sheet, the company has only $800,000 in cash reported with $22.6 million in other current assets. This can cover the current liabilities of $21.3 million, and hopefully the continued free cash flow will help pay down the long-term liabilities of $53.5 million. The balance sheet appears to be adequate if not impressive with a bit more debt vis a vis the assets than I would like to see.

If we look at "key statistics" from Yahoo finance, we find that this is a SMALL, really microcap company with a market cap of $95.58 million. No p/e or PEG reported...there are only 7.35 Million shares outstanding with 4.40 million of them that float.

There are only 3,000 shares out short as of 1/8/04 representing 0.75 trading days so this does not appear to be an issue. No dividend is paid and no stock split is reported on Yahoo. Interestingly, the p/e on the quote page is at 17.88...so the statistics are not quite up to date.

This is an interesting, if tiny stock. It meets our criteria fairly well if not perfectly....I would rather wait for a better fit!....but you know I do have 25 positions in my trading account so I cannot buy any....so maybe it is just sour grapes? Anyway, be sure to do your own due diligence on this and all stocks on this website and use a financial advisor if that is called for!

Thanks for stopping by! Please leave any comments right here on the website or if you would like, feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com with any comments, questions, or words of encouragement!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" SAFM
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. After yesterday's sale of CAI, my account is back to 24 positions...so I was on the lookout for something to list and maybe buy on this site and in my trading portfolio.

Sanderson Farms, a poultry producer, was first posted on Bob's Advice on December 24, 2003, when it was trading at $42.79. SAFM is currently having a nice day, trading at $55.45 up $5.63 or 11.30% on the day.

This is nice for me as earlier today, I purchased 160 shares of SAFM at $53.74 in my trading account.
I still like the company, the valuation is reasonable, and it has all of the growth characteristics I look for in an investment. Now if we can keep those chickens away from that Viral Disease in Asia....hmmmm.

Please, as always, do your own due diligence in making your investment decisions and consult with your own investment advisors!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Trading Transparency" CAI
CACI Intl (CAI) did not have a great day today. It closed at $43.08, down $(1.15) or (2.60)% on the day. I sold my 150 shares of CAI in my trading account at $43.06, when it was down a bit over 8% from my purchase price. CAI is a very recent purchase, picked up about a week and a half ago at $46.81 on 1/22/04. It has not performed well since picking it up, and it spent most of the day teetering just shy of 8% on the loss. When it hit 8%, I pulled the plug, and out it went.

Well, we are back to 24 positions...so I am once again on the look-out for #25! Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to leave them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of July 7, 2003
Hello Friends! It is a quiet Saturday afternoon around here and a good time to post on the BLOG about how we have been overall been doing. I try this to allow for some accountability. I post lots of ideas....but in order to know whether they make sense or not we REALLY need to follow-up and check!

The week of July 7, 2003, was not a busy one for my BLOG. In fact, I only posted two selections: FindWhat.com (FWHT) on 7/7/03 at $22.16, and WebSense (WBSN) on 7/8/03 at $20.26. If you have been reading my other entries, you will realize that I have FINALLY found room and the opportunity to purchase some WBSN in my trading account. I have never owned any FWHT.

Since posting FWHY on Bob's Advice at $22.16, the stock has declined slightly and closed yesterday, 1/30/04, at $19.15, for a loss of $(3.01) or (13.6)%. Overall, the business situation for FindWhat appears to be intact. On December 10, 2003, FWHT announced earnings projections for 2003. They indicated that revenue in 2003 should be over $71.5 million, and increase of 67% over 2002 revenue of $42.8 million. They also announced that fourth quarter 2003 revenue to be at least $20.3 million, a 14% sequential increase in revenue and a year-over-year increase of 52% versus fourth quarter 2002.

I posted Websense on the blog on 7/8/03 at $20.26. WBSN has outperformed FWHT and closed on 1/30/04 at $32.90 for a nice gain of $12.64 or 62.4%. WBSN announced a record fourth quarter earnings report on 1/28/04. Revenue was a record $22.7 million, a 31% increase from the fourth quarter of 2002 and net income was $4.5 million or $.19/share, compared to $6.5 million or $.28/share, which included a tax benefit of $1.4 million. So revenue was solid but earnings were a bit soft relative to the prior year...but apparently the sharp increase in deferred revenue was enough to satisfy the street and the stock moved ahead.

Anyhow, with just two stocks, we had one with a loss of (13.6)%, and one with a big gain of 62.4% for an average performance of a substantial gain of 24.25%.

Thanks again for stopping by! Please remember to do your own due diligence before acting on any stock picks on this website and please consult with your investment advisor as I am an amateur investor and there are professionals out there that can advise you whether individual stock selections are appropriate for you!

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"How are we doing?" Looking back on the week of November 24, 2003
Hello Friends! I am trying to stay up with all of the tasks of having a BLOG. Sort of like homework every day my kids would say. Anyhow, November 24, 2003, was the week of escaping everything except "Death and Taxes". Hmmm..now which famous writer said THAT? Anyway, I truly only made two selections for that week: Odyssey Healthcare (ODSY) a hospice service company, at $35.94, and H&R Block, your local tax preparer, at $53.41.

When I posted ODSY on Bob's Advice on 11/24/03, it was trading at $35.94. It closed yesterday, 1/30/04, at $29.42 for a loss of $(6.52) or (18.1)%.

When I posted HRB on this site, it was trading at $53.41 on 11/26/03. HRB closed yesterday, 1/30/04, at $57.93 for a gain of $4.52 or 8.5%.

During this eight week period these two stocks almost cancelled each other out, however the loss was greater and the average performance for the two was a loss of (4.8)%. Perhaps I should avoid death, go long on taxes, and prefer growth? Enough philosophizing....thanks for stopping by! Remember to always do your own due diligence on all of these selections and consult with your investment advisors before taking any action.

Regards and Have a Great Weekend!

Bob

January 30, 2004 Dendrite International, Inc. (DRTE)
Hello Friends! It sure is cold here in the upper Midwest. I hope all of you are staying inside and bundling up when going out! The market is a bit rocky still but the NASDAQ is holding up fairly well...at least there are no stocks to unload today!

Looking through the gainers today, I came across Dendrite International (DRTE). As I write, they are trading at $16.99 up $2.73 on the day or 19.14%. According to the money.cnn.com snapshot, Dendrite "...is a worldwide supplier of sales force software products and support services to the pharmaceutical industry."

Once again, the driving force in the price move was an excellent fourth quarter 2003 earnings report. This company has been acquiring other companies and recently picked up Synavant, Inc. Including this, revenues for the quarter were up to $99 million from $57 million the prior year, a 74% gain, and net income was $5.8 million in 2003 vs $4.7 million in 2002 or on a per share basis came in at $.14/share in the fourth quarter of 2003 vs $.12/share in 2002.

Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-yr Restated" data, we find that this has been a steadily growing company with revenue of $131 million in 1998, $173 million in 1999, $214 million in 2000, $227 million in 2001, $226 million in 2002 and $279 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings per share have been erratic with $.32/share reported in 1998, increasing only to $.38/share in 2002 and $.48 reported in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow, while not growing steadily, has been nicely positive at $12 million in 2000, $22 million in 2001, $13 million in 2002 and $16 million in the trailing twelve months.

Their balance sheet, per Morningstar, looks quite nice with $26.2 million in cash and $86.4 million in other current assets with $80.4 million in current liabilities reported and only $10.0 million in long-term debt.

Taking a look at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that the Market Cap is a small $689.92 million. The trailing p/e is moderate at 33.30, with a forward p/e (for fiscal year 2004 estimates) at 20.37. The PEG is at 1.50 which isn't bad and the price/sales not too expensive at 2.08.

Yahoo reports that there are 40.63 million shares outstanding with 36.80 million of them that float. Of these, there are 1.81 million shares out short...representing 4.93% of the float as of 1/8/04...or 9.399 trading days (short ratio). This short ratio is actually quite high and we may be witnessing a bit of a short squeeze today.

No dividend is paid and the last stock split was a 3:2 in October, 1999.

Overall, this is an attractive issue. As you know if you read this BLOG, I am loaded down with margin, have my 25 positions I am planning today....so am not in the market for any shares at this time and do not indeed own any! But you never know what the future may hold!

Thanks again for stopping by! As always, please exercise due diligence when making investment decisions and consult with your investment advisor if you have any questions about your decisions. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement (my favorite) for me, please drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or leave the comments right here on the website!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" WBSN
O.K. the market is turning back up for now....will it close on the rebound or slide right back? I don't know. But I saw that Websense (WBSN) made the list of largest gainers. This was a July 8, 2003, stock pick on this site at $20.26. Today, WBSN is trading at $31.783 up $4.312 on the day as I write on good fourth quarter earnings news. Basically, revenue for the quarter ended 12/31/03 was $22.7 million an increase of 31% over last year and income was $7.2 million, an increase of 42% over the prior year's fourth quarter.

To cut to the chase, I purchased 200 shares of WBSN at $31.499 a few moments in my trading account. I am back to 25 positions. Wish me luck!

Regards!

Bob