"Trading Transparency" CYTC
O.K. so I only waited 90 seconds before posting CYTC and buying some shares but what the heck? Anyhow, probably should have waited because the market is STILL in the midst of a correction....but let's see if we can ride this out. My CLZR is pushing an 8% loss and might be unloaded soon....hopefully we can stay above water on that and this purchase.

Now for the specifics, I purchased 500 shares of CYTC a few moments ago at $14.84.

Thanks again for visiting!

Bob

January 29, 2004 Cytyc Corporation (CYTC)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I really do appreciate your visits and love when you drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com . Helps me know you guys are out there!

I found another one...and this looks like a keeper! In what seems to be a similar business to Digene (DIGE) which is posted elsewhere on this BLOG, Cytyc Corporation (CYTC), according to the money.cnn.com snapshot "...designs, develops, manufactures and markets a sample preparation system for medical diagnostic applications." They appear to be involved in Pap Test for cervical cancer screening that requires a microscopic inspection of cervical cells. Anyway, CYTC is having a nice day today trading, as I write, at $14.89 up $.65 or 4.57% on the day.

I hope I don't sound like a broken record, or does anyone remember that expression anymore?, but CYTC jumped today after announcing a great fourth quarter 2003 earnings report. They reported, for the quarter ended December 31, 2003, that sales were a record $78.3 million, a 17% increase over the $66.7 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2002. Net income for the quarter was $19.5 million or $.17/share compared to $17.9 million or $.15/share in the same quarter in 2002.

Looking at the Morningstar.com 5-yr restated financials, we find that revenue has been growing steadily from $44.3 million in 1998, $81.1 million in 1999, $142.1 million in 2000, $221.0 million in 2001, $236.5 million in 2002, and $291.5 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have grown very steadily from $(.11) in 1998 to $.65/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has also grown steadily from $15 million in 2000, $82 million in 2001, and $91 million in 2002, with $88 million reported in the trailing twelve months.

Gorgeous! is the only way I can describe their balance sheet...with $87.1 million in cash and $145.6 million in other current assets with $42.2 million in current liabilities and NO long-term liabilities reported on Morningstar.com. Now that is what I call a NICE balance sheet!

Looking at "key statistics" for CYTC on Yahoo.com, we find the market cap at $1.62 Billion. The trailing p/e isn't bad at all at 18.49 and the PEG is even fairly reasonable at 1.39. Price/sales on this one is a bit steep at 5.36.

There are 109.70 million shares outstanding with 108.70 million of them that float. There are 3.02 million shares out short representing 2.78% of the float or 3.118 trading days as of 1/8/04. No cash dividend is paid and the last stock dividend was a 3:1 split on 8/5/01 per Yahoo.

I actually like this stock a lot. They have great growth numbers, a reasonable p/e and PEG, and a beautiful balance sheet. Like a few others in the portfolio, this stock IS in the medical field, but I like it because of the numbers and not that they are involved in thin-film slides for Pap smears. This one may find a place in my portfolio soon...you know I am looking for #25 to fill out the trading portfolio!

Thanks again for stopping by. Please do your own due diligence and consult with your investment advisor before making any of your own investment decisions based on information on this website!

Regards to all!

Bob

January 29, 2004 Alliance Data Systems (ADS)
Hello Friends! I am in the market for a 25th stock for my portfolio and this one may fit the bill. Alliance Data Systems (ADS), according to the money.cnn.com snapshot "...provides electronic transaction services, credit services and loyalty and database marketing services." ADS is currently trading at $29.50 up $2.30 or 8.46% on the day.

Like so many of my "picks" on this site, ADS had a nice jump in the market today on the heels of an excellent fourth quarter earnings report. For the period ended December 31, 2003, revenue increased 27% to $298.3 million compared to $235.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2002. Net income was up 96% to $19.8 million in the quarter or $.24/share compared to $10.1 million or $.13/share in the same quarter in 2002.

Reviewing the 5-yr restated financials on Morningstar, we find that revenue has been increasing steadily since 1998 when it was $410.9 million, $583.1 million in 1999, $678.2 million in 2000, $777.4 million in 2001, $871.5 million in 2002, and $980.3 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings/share have increased smartly from $.34/share in 2002 to $.68/share in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has been solidly positive although no trend is seen on Morningstar, with $54 million in 2000, $132 million in 2001, $85 million in 2002 and $79 million reported in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet, is adequate but not as debt-free as we might like to see. They have $45.1 million in cash and $464.6 million in other current assets on the Morningstar report, plenty to cover the $465.9 million in current liabilities, leaving $524.6 million in long-term liabilities.

Looking at key statistics for ADS on Yahoo.com, we can see that the market is a large cap $2.36 billion. The trailing p/e is at 38.14 with a forward p/e of 25.66 (for 2004 estimates). The PEG is a5 2.01 and price/sales at 2.21 so this is not selling at a discount.

There are 79.64 million shares outstanding with 62.90 million of them that float. Currently there are 968,000 shares out short (as of 1/8/04) representing 1.54% of the float or 2.734 trading days. No dividend is paid and no stock split has been reported on Yahoo.

Overall, I like this stock for its steady revenue/earnings growth. It isn't cheap by PEG ratios or p/e standards but they are growing nicely and reporting continued increases in recent quarterly reporting. Will be considering making this #25 in my portfolio!

Regards to all!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" CDCY
Hello Friends! I did not think that I would be posting a sale on this stock as soon as I have. However, with the latest swoon in the market, our latest purchases are certainly the most vulnerable to hitting our 8% loss limit. CDCY was no exception and with the stock selling today at an over 8% loss, I pulled the plug and sold my 400 shares of CDCY at $11.80. Unfortunately, CDCY was just purchased a bit over a week ago on 1/20/04 at a cost of $12.89.

Thanks for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

As always, please remember to do your own due diligence before acting on any stocks described on this website and consult with your investment advisor as needed!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" CLZR
Reviewing my portfolio, I decided to go ahead and get back up to 25 positions, so I bought 300 shares of Candela (CLZR) at $26.399 just now. Thanks again for stopping by!

Bob

January 28, 2004 Candela (CLZR)
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. I have been doing a bit of housecleaning both around here and in my trading account. I have successfully sold small portions of stocks....see the preceding posts....and now have sold off my natural gas stock, Pogo Producing with a 9% loss. Looking through the lists today, I came across Candela, which has been showing up in the greatest % gainers for a couple of days.

Candela (CLZR), according to the cnn.money description "...researches, develops, manufactures, markets and services lasers and other devices used to perform aesthetic and cosmetic procedures." CLZR is having a nice day today, trading as I write, at $26.38, up $1.91 or 7.81% on the day.

Looking at the Morningstar.com stock report on CLZR, we find that revenue growth has been a bit erratic from $58.6 million in 1999 to $86.2 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings/share have also been erratic ranging from $.82/share in 1999, dropping to a loss of $(.21)/share in 2002 and staying at $.55/share in the latest twelve months.

Free cash flow, along with the other numbers, is positive but inconsistent, improving from $1 million in 2001, dropping to $(8) million in 2002, and back to $10 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet looks excellent with $30 million in cash reported by Morningstar.com with only $21.7 million in current liabilities and $5.1 million in long-term liabilities. In addition CLZR has $40.2 million in other current assets.

So with all of this inconsistency, why have I posted this stock? Well, like so many of our listings, CLZR reported its
second quarter earnings report yesterday after the close. The results were quite nice: for the quarter ended December 27, 2003, revenues were $23.9 million, a 33% increase from a year ago, and income from continuing operations was $2.4 million or $.22/share compared to $.8 million or $.08/share last year. For the 'icing on the cake' the company declared itself optimistic about the next two quarters and announced a 100% stock dividend (a 2:1 split). All of these were bullish for the stock.

Looking at Yahoo "key statistics" on Candela, we find that the Market Cap is a small $287.3 million, the trailing p/e is 35.82, the PEG is at 1.21, and price/sales at 3.11. There are 10.9 million shares outstanding with 7.80 million of them that float. No dividend is paid and the last previous stock split was a 3:2 split in February, 2000.

Overall, I like this stock a lot and may indeed pick up a few shares. The growth has been erratic, but the last couple of years have been strong and the company is speaking very optimistically about future results. As always, please do your own due diligence if you decide to act on any of this information, and I strongly recommend consulting with your own investment advisor before making any purchases or sales.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Trading Transparency" PPP
Hello Friends! I did not think I would be posting another trade so soon. Even at $8/trade, Fidelity must love my account!

Pogo Producing (PPP) is having an awful day and has now hit my 8% loss limit. I sold my entire position in Pogo this morning at $42.66. Currently, as I write, PPP is trading at $42.60 down $3.40 or 7.39% on the day. I had recently, 12/4/03, purchased the 200 shares at $46.97.

Oh well, back to 24 positions. I can keep my eye out for another that fits and get back to 25!

Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Trading Transparency" STJ
Hello Friends! Am working hard in this bull market to reduce my margin. STJ (St. Jude) has been having a great day today, currently trading at $70.30 up $4.91 or 7.51% on the day. With about a 21% gain on my shares, I went ahead and peeled off 30 shares at $70.11. I left 120 shares in the trading account. STJ was acquired with a 150 share purchase on 10/15/03 at $57.79. We will try to wait for about a 60% gain on this stock before making our next sale...but you know I may just jump the gun :). Thanks for stopping by.

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, as always feel free to post them here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

January 27, 2004 Millipore (MIL)
Hello Friends! I am back at it...scanning the lists of movers and seeing if anything looks good. Millipore (MIL) made the list today on the NYSE and it appears to fit our requirements. Currently, MIL is trading, as I write, at $50.87, up $4.99 or 10.88% on the day.

According to the money.cnn.com description, MIL "...is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of products that are based on separations technology and that are used for the analysis, identification, monitoring and purification of liquids and gasses." By the way, I do not own any shares of this issue.

The stock move, like so many on our list, was caused by a favorable fourth quarter earnings report. MIL reported yesterday, after the close of trading, that their fourth quarter came in at $.53/share (after removal of adjustments) exceeding earnings estimates of $.48 and better than the $.41/share reported last year. During the quarter, sales rose 16% to $215.8 million from $185.9 million last year.

Reviewing the Morningstar.com report on Millipore, you will find that revenue has grown nicely from $522 million in 1998, $566 million in 1999, $600 million in 2000, $657 million in 2001, $704 million in 2002 and $745 million in the trailing twelve months. (Extrapolating the current quarter gets us over $850 million/year!).

Earnings/share have increased from $.22/share in an erratic fashion, to $1.70 in the trailing twelve months. The stock WAS paying a dividend at least through 2001, but no dividend reported on Morningstar since that time.

Free cash flow, also slightly erratic, was $49 million in 2000, down to $(10) million in 2001, back to $51 million in trailing twelve months. Much of this variance is due to the increasing capital spending and "Operating cash flow" has actually been improving fairly steadily.

The balance sheet, while not as exciting as some, is still well-balanced with $120.9 million in cash, almost enough to cover the entire current liabilities of $137.7 million. The company also has an additional $321.0 million in other current assets to help cover the long-term liabilities of $359.5 million.

The other place I like to check to get a sense of 'value' for a company is Yahoo key statistics in this case for MIL. There, you will see that the market cap is a large $2.46 billion with a trailing p/e not too bad ad 24.50, and a PEG of 1.61 and price/sales at 2.91.

There are 48.81 million shares outstanding with 48.30 million of them that float. Currently there are 1.13 million shares out short (as of 1/8/04) representing 2.34% of the float or 4.593 trading tdays. No dividend is currently paid and the last stock split was a 2:1 split on July 24, 1995.

Overall, this is an attractive stock with a p/e just over 20, and nice numbers. A bit calmer than some of our issues, this might be a nice addition to someone's portfolio! As for me, you know the old story, hang in there at 25 positions, and pay, pay, pay down the margin!

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com As always, remember to do your due diligence before investing in anything, and consult with your investment advisor!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" DIGE
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. Staying on top of the trading portfolio, and working hard to get that margin level down, I realized that my shares in Digene (DIGE) had appreciated a little over 25% today. Closing in on the 30% target, I went ahead and sold 30 shares today at $47.61 leaving 120 shares in the portfolio. I had purchased 150 shares just a little over a month ago at a cost of $38.07 on 12/17/03.

Just trying to keep you posted...the trading portfolio is holding up fairly well today in the midst of the market correction.

Bob