"How are we doing?" A look back on the week of October 27, 2003
Well we are getting deep into the Holiday Season now and it will soon be 2004. Doesn't it seem like yesterday when we were worrying about Y2K instead of 9/11? Times do change quickly.

As always, remember to consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on materials on this website!

During the week of October 27, 2003, I posted six stocks on this website: Altiris (ATRS) and Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) on 10/28/03, Spectralink (SLNK) and OPNET Technologies (OPNT) on 10/29/03, and NetScreen Technologies (NSCN) and Kyphon (KYPH) on 10/30/03.

Altiris closed 12/19/03 at $33.48 for a gain of $1.55 or 4.9% during this period.

Portfolio Research Associates closed at $27.50 on 12/19/03 for a gain of $.57 or 2.1%.

SpectraLink closed 12/19/03 at $18.14 for a loss of ($.40) or (2.2%).

OPNET Technologies closed 12/19/03 at $16.25 for a gain of $2.15 or 15.2%.

NetScreen Technologies closed 12/19/03 at $24.31 for a loss of ($2.85) or (10.5%).

Finally, Kyphon closed 12/19/03 at $25.08 for a loss of ($4.07) or (14.0%).

The last 7 weeks were not exceptionally kind for our picks which had an average loss of (.75%). Not exceptionally weak yet nothing to write home about!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

December 17, 2003 Overland Storage (OVRL)
Hello Friends! I was going to check-out for the evening....but NO I had to take ONE MORE LOOK at those big percentage gainers...I had completely skipped over this one earlier. I looked at the name and figured for sure that this was some sort of storage unit partnership thing....but I was WRONG about that! ANYHOW, Overland Storage (OVRL) had a GREAT day today, closing at $17.889, up $1.519 or 9.28% on the day. As you might have guessed, I do NOT own any shares of this stock. As always, I must remind you to consult with your investment advisor before making ANY decisions based on posts on this website as they may or may not be suitable for you and may or may not be profitable!

Back to Overland...according to money.cnn.com, Overland "...designs, develops, manufactures, markets and supports magnetic tape data storage systems used by businesses for high performance network backup, archival solutions and data interchange." And no, they do not sell storage units for your family heirlooms!

Looking at Yahoo.com, I found the latest quarterly results that were released on October 22, 2003 for the quarter ended September 30, 2003...as picked up from PRNewswire-FirstCall: Revenue for the quarter "climbed 64 percent to $56.6 million compared with revenue of $34.5 million in the year earlier quarter." Net income on a GAAP basis was $2.2 million or $.16/diluted share compared to a net loss of ($557,000) or ($.05)/share last year.

Looking at Morningstar.com for some more information on this company I found on "5-Yr Restated" financials that revenue has grown from $92 million in 1999, to $123 million in 2000, $156 million in 2001, $163 million in 2002, and $196 million in 2003. Extrapolating the latest quarter into 2004 should get us somewhere north of $220 million in revenue for 2004.

Except for a dip in 2000, revenue has grown steadily from $.37/share in 1999 to $.54/share in 2003. Free cash flow has recently turned positive from ($7) million in 2001, $9 million in 2002 and $8 million in 2003. The balance sheet is beautiful for this company. As reported on Morningstar.com, OVRL has $55.0 million in cash, more than enough to cover both the current liabilities which stand at $28.6 million and the long-term liabilities of $9.0 million. In addition, they have $57.9 million of other current assets.

Looking at "Key Statistics" on the Yahoo.com financial website, we find that the Market Cap is a small $237.98 million. The trailing p/e is very nice at 24.34 and the PEG is EXCELLENT at 1.07. The price/sales is also WONDERFUL at 1.00. (I may talk myself into buying some shares of this stock yet!).

Yahoo reports 13.3 million shares outstanding with 10.80 million of them that float. Currently, as of 11/10/03, there are only 350,000 shares out short representing 1.241 trading days or only 3.24% of the float.

No dividend is paid and no stock split is reported on Yahoo.

In summary, this is a very nice stock except maybe for its small size...if that is a problem for you....The p/e is relatively cheap in the low 20's, the PEG is at 1.0, the Price/sales at 1.0...so valuation is excellent. They have a consistent record of revenue growth which is continuing in the latest reported quarter....and the balance sheet is PRISTINE....I love that word! So what is there NOT to like?

Anyhow, I hope you enjoyed this post and spend some time exploring the website where I have been posted lots of interesting stocks for the past six months.
I always heard if you could do something for at least six weeks that you could depend on that habit continuing....I wonder what they would say about six months?

Regards to ALL!

Bob

December 17, 2003 Digene Corp. (DIGE)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. As you may note from the previous post...the post just UNDER this post...I purchased 150 shares of Digene (DIGE) a few minutes ago at $38.02. DIGE is having a nice day, and currently as I write is trading at $37.99, up $3.65 or 10.63% on the day. As ALWAYS, please check with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions based on information on this website as it may or may not be suitable for you.

Anyhow, according to money.cnn.com, Digene "...develops, manufactures and markets proprietary DNA and RNA testing systems for the screening, monitoring and diagnosis of human disease." What pushed the stock higher was a report from Thomas Weisel, that was picked up by Yahoo.com, indicating that Kaiser of California (The big managed care organization) will "...begin offering DIGE's DNAwithPap as a primary screen to patients 30 and older beginning Jan 1, 2004.....and firm thinks that Kaiser could generate $6-$10 mln in annual rev, resulting in $0.08-$0.12 to DIGE's bottom line..."

Looking for the latest quarterly earnings report that has been reported, I found the first quarter 2004 report that was picked up by Yahoo.com and reported on PRNewswire-FirstCall. Total revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 2003, increased 55% to $19.6 million compared to the same quarter a year earlier which was at $12.6 million in revenue.
Gross margin on product sales "...rose to 83% from 74% in the same quarter last year. Net income for the quarter was $0.7 million, or $.03 per diluted share, compared to net loss of $2.6 million, or $.14 per diluted share in the fiscal 2003 first quarter."

Looking at Morningstar.com, we find a steadily improving revenue picture with $17 million reported in 1999, $23 million in 2000, $34 million in 2001, $49 milliion in 2002, and $63 million in 2003. At the current quarter's revenue rate extrapolated would get us to about $80 million in revenue for 2004 and that is without any sequential improvement from the first quarter!

Earnings, unfortunately, have been negative up to this quarter: ($.65) in 1999, dropping to ($.24) in 2003. Free Cash Flow has also been negative but improving with $5 million in 2001, dropping to ($10) million in 2002, and ($6) million in 2003.

According to Morningstar.com, the balance sheet looks excellent with $34.3 million in cash, more than enough to cover BOTH the current liabilities of $17.8 million and the long-term liabilities of only $2.6 million. In addition, DIGE has another $19.6 milllion in other current assets reported.

Looking at "Key Statistics" on the Yahoo Finance site, we find that DIGE has a market cap of $713.57 million. There is NO trailing p/e because of the previous LOSSES, however the forward p/e is 43.47, and the PEG is at 1.85. Price/sales is also rich at 9.17. So the stock is not a bargain stock.

Currently there are 18.73 million shares outstanding with 13.40 million of them that float. In addition there are 1.24 million shares out short representing 9.25% of the float or 3.379 trading days of activity as of 11/10/03. This is DOWN from 1.76 million shares out short the prior month. No dividend is paid and no stock dividend has been declared according to Yahoo.

I like this stock a lot. In fact I like it so much I "married it!" and bought 150 shares for my trading portfolio. What do I like about this stock? Well for one thing, this appears to be a biotech firm with a product that is in great demand...an advance on the Pap test for women testing for cervical cancer. Presumably, there are many other applications for this. Having Kaiser as a customer suggests that this product is cost-effective and attractive to a large California HMO.

In addition, they are now profitable, have a 5 year record of improving revenue, and a beautiful balance sheet with lots of cash on hand. I would like to see them stay profitable and demonstrate free cash flow.

Thanks again for stopping by and please feel free to comment RIGHT HERE....(won't someone break the ice?) or drop me an email for any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!

Regards!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" DIGE
I am continuing to work on building back up to my 25 position portfolio. Came across Digene Corporation (DIGE), a biotech firm involved in the DNA diagnostic arena, came out with a DNA based Pap Smear test that is highly accurate...and Kaiser Medical Group announced they may be utilizing this test. ANYHOW, to make a long story short, I puchased 150 shares a few minutes ago at $38.02. The full report on DIGE will follow shortly. Just wanted to give all of you the heads-up on what I was doing in my trading portfolio. As always, please check with your financial advisor as to the suitability of any investment idea on this site prior to acting on it!

Regards to all of my friends.

Bob

December 16, 2003 Advanced Digital Information (ADIC)
Hello Sports Fans! See, I didn't say "friends". The market is closed and I have one last (hopefully) stock to post. I don't own any shares of this one but would be game to buy some. Let me share some of the numbers with you.

First of all, Advanced Digital (ADIC) had a nice day in the market today closing at $13.96, up $.67 or 5.04% on the day. According to money.cnn.com, ADIC "...designs, manufactures, markets and services automated high performance data storage products used to backup and archive electronic data in client/server network computing environments."

Looking up the latest quarterly results on NYTimes on the Web, I found that on December 11, 2003, as picked up from BUSINESS WIRE, ADIC reported results for the fourth quarter ended October 31, 2003. Sales for the fourth quarter hit $118 million, up 40% over the prior year and up 9% sequentially from the $108 million reported in the third quarter. Net income for the quarter was $5.8 million or $.09/fully diluted share compared to a loss of ($1.2) million or ($.02/share) the prior year.

Checking Morningstar.com for the "5-Yr Restated" financial results, we find that revenue has grown fairly consistently (except in 2002) from $118 million in 1998, $227 million in 1999, $290 million in 2000, $365 million in 2001, $338 million in 2002 (the hiccup), and $390 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share have been erratic, at $.27/share in 1999, peacking at $1.50/share in 2000, dropping to a loss in 2001 at ($.18) then improving in 2002 to $.02/share all year, and $.09 in the last twelve months.

Free cash flow, as reported on Morningstar was ($34) million in 2000, ($56) million in 2001, went postive at $13 million in 2002, and $22 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet is beautiful: $205.8 million in cash vs $95 million in current liabilities and $1.0 million in long-term debt. In addition, ADIC has $143.9 million in other current assets.

Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com financial site, we find for ADIC that the current Market Cap is $876.7 million. The trailing p/e is rich at 71.22 but the company is JUST turning profitable so this is expected. The PEG ratio is very nice at 0.97 and price/sales isn't bad at 2.14.

According to Yahoo.com, there are 62.80 million shares outstanding with 51.6 million of them that float. There are actually a few shares out short...amounting to 1.43 million as of 11/10/03 (an increase of over 300,000 from the prior month) which represents 2.217 trading days. No regular cash dividend is paid and the last stock-split was a 2:1 in March, 2000.

Personally, I like this stock a lot. The p/e, although high, should be dropping quickly. The growth in the latest quarter is superb and the PEG is under 1.0 which is very uncommon. Also, the balance sheet is very nice and the company is continuing to generate more free cash and has enough cash on hand to pay off both the current-liabilities and the minimal long-term debt. The only thing I don't like about this stock, besides the erratic earnings record the last five years, is the fact that I do NOT own any!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments feel free to post on this website...anybody having problems with that? Or drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

As always, please consult with your own investment advisor prior to making any decisions based on what you read on the website as you may #1) LOSE MONEY, or #2) find that the investment is INAPPROPRIATE for you! Regards, as always,

Bob

December 16, 2003 iPass (IPAS)
Hello Friends! As you will note from the previous post, I have just purchased 200 shares of iPass (IPAS) at $16.55 just minutes ago and promised to post a note on the company. So here it is. You take a look at the numbers and the story and see if you agree with me that it looks interesting.

IPAS is having a nice day today, currently as I write trading at $16.47 up $1.22 or 8.00%. The stock is actually trading at its lower end of its trading range for the past 52 weeks which according to Morningstar.com, has been a high of $29.19 and a low of $15.08.

According to money.cnn.com, IPAS "...is a provider of software-enabled enterprise connectivity services for mobile workers." As I understand it, IPAS is involved in the rapidly growing area of WiFi connectivity. (Did I spell that right?)

If we look at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we find that IPAS has been growing rapidly from $3.9 million in revenue in 1998 to $14.3 million in 1999, $35.3 million in 2000, $53.2 million in 2001, and $92.8 million in 2002.

Free cash flow which was a ($29) million in 2000, and ($22) million in 2001, turned positive at $7 million in 2002.

The balance sheet, as presented on Morningstar.com also looks nice with $27.9 million in cash reported, more than enough to pay off both the current liabilities of $24.1 million and the long-term liabilities of only $1.8 million combined. In addition, they have other current assets totalling $25.8 million.

The latest quarterly results were reported on October 16, 2003, as picked up by the NYTimes on the Web, revenue was $35.0 million, an increase of 46% from the 2002 results, operating income was $6.2 million representing a 149% increase over the $2.5 million reported in the same period last year and a 9% increase over the prior quarter for sequential growth. On a per share basis, net income was $.07/share vs $.04/share last year.

Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo.com financial site, we find that the current market cap is $989.71 million, the trailing p/e is at 23.93, however the forward p/e is at 37.20 (?). The PEG ratio is reported at 1.43 with a Price/Sales at 7.32. So except for the current p/e, this doesn't look cheap.

There are 60.46 million shares outstanding, but only 7.00 million of them float. There are only 92,000 shares out short as of 11/10/03, representing 0.369 trading days. No dividend is reported and no stock split since this company came public during the 3rd quarter 2003.

I do like this stock a lot. In fact I bought 200 shares (which are a little underwater already!) earlier today. The stock has a reasonable p/e in the low 20's with explosive growth history and in a spot of the market that should continue to grow, in my humble opinion.

Please consult with your investment advisor before making any decisions based on information presented on this website as investments discussed may or may not be appropriate or profitable for you!

Thanks again for stopping by! Please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any questions. Also, feel free to leave comments right HERE on the website. When will someone "break the ice" and open up this site for discussion...hmmmm.

Bob

"Trading Transparency" MRGE & IPAS
Hello Friends! MRGE fell out of bed this morning. You cannot know how much I HATE it when that happens. Anyhow I JUST picked it up YESTERDAY and now I have sold my MRGE sales with a quick 12% loss. Great company but a lousy investment! At least for me! Anyhow, picked up some IPAS today, I will highlight it later...bought 200 shares (the stock is non-marginable in my brokerage account) at $16.55. Wish me luck. I hope I can hang onto it more than 24 hours! The stock is a relatively recent IPO and has great numbers...but price has pulled back from its peak..so this may turn out just fine.

As always, please consult with your investment advisor over any stock you might wish to buy or sell based on what you read here. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Trading Transparency" New purchase of MRGE
Having sold 1/4 of my AAII position earlier today, while still under 25 positions, I have been on the look-out for a suitable candidate for a new investment. Several of the website picks made the list today of best movers. I picked up 400 shares of Merge Technology (MRGE) at average cost of $20.687 this morning. I have listed MRGE elsewhere on the website on 9/18/03 when it was trading at $18.99. The numbers still look good to me so hopefully this will be a nice pick for the portfolio.

As always, PLEASE consult with your investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on material on this website. The stocks listed may or may not be appropriate or profitable for you!

Thanks for stopping by! As always, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!

Bob

"Trading Transparency" AAII
I have had a bunch of sales recently due to profit-taking or whatever is driving my purchases down...and it is nice to report a sale on a gain. I sold 50 shares of AAIPharma Inc. (AAII), this morning at $26.08, which represents a 91% gain (our third sale point...I sold 1/4 of my holding)...AAII was initially purchased on 5/12/03, when I purchased 400 shares at a cost basis of $13.63. I sold 100 shares on 6/18/03 for a gain of $269.23, and another 100 shares on 6/27/03 for a gain of $612.46.

I now have some buying power to work back on getting my portfolio up to the 25 position strength that is my goal!

Thanks for stoppping by!

Bob

"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of June 2, 2003.
Hello Again Friends! Thanks for stopping by! If you are new here, you will hear me remind you often to check with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on this website...please follow that advice! I like to post new stock ideas that I have come across in this space and one weekends look back to our older posts and see how they have done. If you would like to read the original posts, they are all stored on Tripod...and you can access them by clicking on the appropriate date on the calendar at left.

The week of June 2, about 6 1/2 months ago, was a busy week on this website. I actually posted 13 stocks on this site. Let's see how they have done since we identified them. Remember, the market has been quite strong this past six months, so I cannot take full responsibility for the performance.

ExpressJet (XJT) was selected on 6/2/03 at $12.60. XJT closed on 12/12/03 at $15.42. This is a gain of $2.82 or 22.4%. On 10/16/03, on PRNewswire-FirstCall, as reported on Yahoo, XJT reported their third quarter results. Operating revenue increased 27% to $343.6 million, diluted eps was $.48/share up from $.34/share last year. This company is still "on track".

The next stock on 6/2/03 was Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) posted while at $49.18. ACS closed 12/12/03 at $53.40 up $4.22 or 8.6%. Looking through the headlines on Yahoo.com, we find that on 10/21/03, ACS reported their first quarter fiscal year 2004 results. Revenues increased 17% to $1.037 billion compared to $882.6 million last year. Diluted eps was $.60 up 20% from last year's $.50/share. This stock also appears to be still "on track".

The third stock on the list is Coach (COH), which is the only stock I currently own in my trading account. We listed Coach on 6/2/03 at $51.53. COH split 2:1 effected 10/2/03, thus out effective cost on the stock is $25.77. COH closed 12/12/03 at $36.30 for a gain of $10.53 or 40.9%. Looking through the headlines, we find the latest quarterly report on 10/21/03, as picked up from BUSINESS WIRE on Yahoo: Net sales increase 34% from $192.8 million to $258.4 million for this year's first quarter. Earnings per share were up over 80% to $.22 from $.12 last year. Things are going well for Coach!

United Financial Mortgage (UFM) was selected on 6/3/03 at $8.05. UFM closed 12/12/03 at $7.00 DOWN ($1.05) or (20.8%). UFM reported first quarter results for the quarter ended July 31, 2003, on 9/16/03 as picked up by Yahoo.com from PRNewswire-FirstCall: Revenues for the first quarter increased 271% to $22.4 million from $6.05 million last year. Net income increased 328% to $1.8 million or $.43/share compared to $418,442 or $.10/share. Clearly, the company has continued to do well, but the market is punishing interest-rate related and refinancing-dependent growth stories.

Select Medical (SEM) was picked on 6/3/03 at $22.10. SEM closed 12/12/03 at $34.27 for a gain of $12.17 or 55.1%. SEM announced a 2:1 stock split in November, and earnings were reported on 10/29/03 for the third quarter ended 9/30/03: Net operating revenues increased 26.7% to $353.5 million compared to $279.0 million last year. Income increased 64.3% to $36.9 million from $22.5 million last year. Net income was up 99% to $18.6 million compared to net income of $9.4 million last year. On a fully-diluted basis, eps was $.35 this year vs. $.19 last year, an increase of 84.2%.

School Specialty (SCHS) was selected on 6/3/03 at $25.45. SCHS closed 12/12/03 at $31.55. This is an increase of $6.10 or 24.0%. SCHS reported their second quarter results on 11/11/03 as reported on Yahoo.com, picked up from PRNewswire-FirstCall: Revenues were $335.1 million, a 5.6% increase over last year's results. Diluted eps was $1.31, up from $1.30 last year. These numbers are at least positive but they are far from exciting and I would watch this one closely for any faltering in earnings growth next quarter.

Walgreen (WAG) was posted on this site on 6/3/03 at $32.17. WAG closed 12/12/03 at $36.65, at increase of $4.48, or 13.9%. On 12/2/03 WAG reported same store sales growth for November, 2003, at 10.7% an outstanding result! On 9/29/03, WAG reported results for their fiscal fourth quarter ended August 31, 2003: Sales rose 14.0% to $8.2 billion from last year. Net earnings were up 11.9% to $277.1 million or $.27/share vs last year's $247.7 million or $.24/share. It looks like Walgreen is doing just fine!

E-Loan (EELN) was selected at $5.06 on 6/4/03. We briefly owned EELN in our trading account but it was sold as it declined. EELN closed 12/12/03 at $2.70 for a loss of ($2.36) or (46.6%). This is another interest-rate sensitive stock like UFM, feeling the pain of the anticipated bottoming of rates. On 10/23/03, EELN reported their results for their third quarter: revenues were $43.8 million, up 54% from last year. Net income was $8.0 million or $.12/diluted share vs $3.1 million or $.05/diluted share last year. These are great results, but the stock fell anyway! Probably a good reason to stay away from the interest-rate/refinancing boom-sensitive stocks.

Christopher & Banks(CBK) was selected on 6/5/03 at $33.45. CBK had a 3:2 split on 8/28/03 so our effective 'cost' is $22.30. CBK closed 12/12/03 at $22.06 for a loss of ($.24) or (1.1%). My favorite indicator for sales growth is same-store sales numbers, and CBK, while reporting overall sales growth of 14% (on 12/4/03 on Yahoo), noted that same store sales DECLINED 2%. On 9/23/03, as reported on Yahoo.com, from PRNewswire-FirstCall, CBK reported the second quarter results: Net income was up 22% to $8.5 million or $.22/diluted share vs $6.9 million or $.17/diluted share last year. Net sales were up 21% in the second quarter to $89.7 million from $73.9 million last year, and same store sales were still postive during the quarter at 3% growth. However, the recent same store sales declines certainly gives me pause about the near-term potential of this stock!

On 6/5/03, American Pharmaceutical Partners (APPX) was picked at $37.39. APPX had a 3:2 split on 9/3/03 so our effective 'cost' for our pick is actually $24.93. APPX closed on 12/12/03 at $33.71 for a gain of $8.78 or 35.2%. On 10/23/03, as picked up by Yahoo.com from PRNewswire-FirstCall, APPX reported their fiscal third quarter, 2003, results for the period ended 9/30/03: Net sales increase 28% to $90.4 million. Net income rose to $18.3 million or $.25/share from $10.6 million or $.14/share last year. Overall, these are great numbers and this company appears to be right on track!

Mothers Work (MWRK) was selected on 6/5/03 at $25.55. MWRK closed 12/12/03 at $24.66 for a loss of ($.89) or (3.5%). Again we have the comparable store sales figure at play here. On 12/4/03, MWRK reported sales figure for November, 2003: overall sales increased 6.4% to $43.2 million from last year however SAME STORE SALES figures DECLINED 3.7% based on 858 locations. So, as a retail venture, I would be cautious with this stock at this time.

CarMax (KMX) was selected on 6/5/03 at $28.65. KMX closed 12/12/03 at $29.15 for a gain of $.50 or 1.7%. News still o.k. as 12/4/03, on Yahoo.com from Dow Jones, KMX reported same-store used-unit sales grew 2% in the third quarter. On 9/2/03, KMX reported thir second quarter results, as picked up from PRNewswire-FirstCall and reported on Yahoo: Net earnings increased 25% to $39.6 million Or $.37/share compared to $31.7 million or $.30/share last year. Results are o.k., but same store sales growth maybe a bit anemic?

Finally, Cardinal Health (CAH) was selected on 6/6/03 at $64.17. CAH closed 12/12/03 at $63.73, down ($.44) or (.7%). On 10/23/03 CAH reported results that were slightly below expectations, but were quite solid nevertheless. For the peiod ended 9/30/03, Revenue rose 16% to $13.3 Billion from $11.4 billion last year. GAAP operating earnings grew 12% to $522 million over last year. This stock also seems to be on track!

Overall, for the 13 stocks picked for the week we have an average performance of 9.9%. A fair result held back by a couple of those mortgage-refinancing related stocks that were under-performers.

Thanks for stopping by! Please be sure to visit often and drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement!

Bob