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Thursday, 29 May 2008
Visa (V) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Earlier today I sold a portion of my Copart (CPRT) stock after it hit my first assigned appreciation target--that is it had increased in price to a 30% appreciation over my purchase cost.  With that event, I sold 1/7th of my holding (and wrote about it on my blog as well).  My own portfolio management strategy depends on the performance of my own stocks to give me the 'signals' to be either buying (on good news events like sales on appreciation) or 'sitting on my hands' which happened yesterday on a bad news event like a sale on a decrease in the stock price as I experienced with my ResMed holding.

The other part of my portfolio management strategy involves dealing with sales at the extremes of my portfolio size.  For me, my minimum number of holdings is five and my maximum is twenty.  I try to 'float' my portfolio between these two extremes based on the activity of my own stocks.  In this case, sitting at five positions, my minimum, the sale of a portion of Copart (CPRT) gave me a signal or 'permission slip' as I sometimes write, to be looking for a new stock to buy.  And thus, as I have written before, with that nickel burning a hole in my pocket, I set out to find a new stock to purchase.

Checking the list of top % gainers on the NYSE earlier today, I saw that Visa (V) had made the list.  However, the other stocks moved higher and V sold off a bit, so by the end of the day it was no longer on the top % gainers.  However, by that time I had already purchased 70 shares at $85.92 for my trading account.  Visa (V) closed at $85.25 up $3.33 or 4.06% on the day.

Let's take a closer look at this stock and I will try to explain why I purchased shares and why

VISA (V) IS RATED A BUY

First of all, according to the Yahoo "Profile" on Visa (V), the company

"...through its subsidiaries, operates retail electronic payments network worldwide. It facilitates commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses, and government entities in approximately 170 countries and territories."

And how did it do the latest quarter?

On April 28, 2008, Visa (V) reported strong 2nd quarter 2008 results.  Revenue and net income rose strongly with net income climbing 28%.  The company beat expectations coming in with adjusted earnings of $.52/share ahead of Thomson Reuters' consensus of $.46/share.  Revenue climbed to $1.5 billion ahead of expectations of $1.45 billion.

The stock actually dipped on this report since it is a relatively recent IPO, having come public on March 18, 2008, and having climbed sharply from the $44/share level with a 66% increase at the time of the earnings announcement.

Looking longer-term at the Morningstar.com '5-Yr Restated' financials page, we can see a steady increase in revenue from $1.98 billion in 2003 to $3.59 billion in 2007 and $4.8 billion in the trailing twelve months (TTM).  There has been an increase from 1.02 billion shares in 2007 to 1.53 billion in the TTM.  I assume this is related to the recent public offering of shares.

The free cash flow numbers suggest a one-time dip in free cash flow with $8 million in 2007 dipping to a negative $(20.9) billion in the trailing twelve months.  Quite frankly, I didn't pay a lot of attention to this figure at the time of purchase (?).  I don't think it is a problem, but would wait for updated Morningstar.com figures as things progress.

The balance sheet is solid with $10 billion in cash and other current assets vs. the $(5.8) billion in current liabilities.

Let's take a brief look at the 'point & figure' chart on V from StockCharts.com:

We can certainly see the incredible price momentum on this stock. 

So while the Morningstar.com page is a bit incomplete from my perspective, the recent quarter was strong, I am well familiar with this particular franchise :), and the chart looks great. 

Anyhow, I added it to my portfolio---so now I have a 'financial' stock that appears to be moving strongly higher. 

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Yours in investing,

 

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:34 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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