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Wednesday, 6 August 2008
Meridian Bioscience (VIVO), ResMed (RMD) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I am absolutely in love with Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) but with the latest quarter mildly disappointing, and the stock lagging while the rest of the market moves higher, I grew impatient today. and started looking for another vehicle for my investment purposes. 

O.K. it isn't exactly consistent with my trading 'rules'.   But you might recall, did basically a similar thing with my IHS stock, that I chose to sell when it appeared to be acting sickly and took the proceeds and jumped into Graham (GHM) which was probably the smartest move of mine this year (except for my short-term trades in Meridian recently...which were WAY outside my usual trading actions!)

With all of that in mind, and thinking maybe I could 'fine-tune' my portfolio a little, I sold my 171 shares of Meridian (VIVO) shares today at  $25.4844 and went to the list of top % gainers today to find out if there was a better place to park the proceeds.

In light of my own sale of Meridian (VIVO), I am reducing my rating on the stock:

MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE (VIVO) IS RATED A HOLD

Reviewing the 'top % gainers', I noted that ResMed (RMD) was on the list!  This stock has been an 'old favorite' of mine and I have owned it in the past as well.  After a review of the news which consisted of a strong earnings report, I thought it might be wise to switch from one medical technology firm to another that was acting a bit healthier.

I went ahead and purchased 140 shares of ResMed (RMD) at $43.269.  ResMed (RMD) actually closed at $43.09, up $4.84 or 12.65% on the day. 

RESMED (RMD) IS RATED A BUY

Let me review with you some of the facts that led to my decision to buy shares in this company which, as I have written, is an 'old favorite' of mine. 

First of all, that earnings report.

Yesterday, after the close of trading, ResMed (RMD) reported 4th quarter 2008 results.  Revenue for the quarter increased 23% to $235.2 million from the prior year same period.  Net income was $29.6 million, up from $27.7 million last year.  Diluted earnings per share came in at $.38/share, up from $.35/share last year.  Excluding some one-time expenses, this would have been $.40/share.

Sometimes just as important as the actual result and comparisons to prior quarters, is the question of expectations.  In other words, the result was impressive because the 'street' had been expecting earnings of $.39/share.  And ResMed beat expectations with its $.40/share result.  In addition, with its revenue of $235.2 million, it beat expectations of revenue of $220.3 million according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

Sleep apnea is big business.

As this same Reuters article reports:

"ResMed and bigger rival Respironics Inc control about 80 percent of the $2 billion U.S. market for sleep breathing devices, a rapidly growing market as people become more aware of the links between sleep disorders and heart disease and diabetes."

In America alone, it is estimated that 18 million American may suffer from obstructive sleep apnea.  And of these, 10 million are undiagnosed.

Other 'facts' from that same article:

I share these fact with you both as an investor as well as a patient who also hooks himself up to his own CPAP machine for the last several years!  If you or someone you know snores at night, has a large neck size, is a bit overweight....now we are talking about most of us lol....and if your significant other notes that you sometimes stop breathing when you are snoring....well get yourself down to a sleep lab...it could mean the difference between life and death!

But looking at the fundamentals, besides that little health plug, we can check with Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" results.  Here we can see the steady pattern of revenue growth, the slight dip in earnings last year and the subsequent rebound, the modest increase in outstanding shares, the recently improved record of free cash flow, and the very strong balance sheet. 

Like many stocks recently, the stock price has been under pressure.  Let's take a look at the "point & figure" chart on ResMed from StockCharts.com:

You can see how after June, 2007, the stock broke through support levels at the $40 level.  Even with today's strong rise, the stock hardly looks over-extended.  In fact, it has some upward price appreciation to do before it even confirms this bullish move.  I hope I haven't moved in prematurely, but I believe that the financial results are once again on track and that usually, the stock price follows along.  At least that is my strategy.

Sometimes you got to just jump from one wave and pick up another.  Of course, I don't surf.  But in my mind, that's what investing in this fashion is all about.

I will keep you posted.  Meanwhile, wish me luck with this new purchase. 

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my actual trading portfolio is monitored and evaluated, my SocialPicks Page where my stock picks from the last almost two years are reviewed, and my Podcast Page where you can download an mp3 or two of me discussing some of the many stocks I write about here on this website.

I hope the rest of the week goes well and finds you in good health, sleeping well at night without any 'apnea', and finds your portfolio rebounding from the recent correction with profits exceeding losses!

Yours in investing,

 

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:33 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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