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Sunday, 14 March 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of August 18, 2003
Hello Friends! Just trying to finish up a little website "housework" here before crashing for the evening. From the last post, we can see how even with a selective stock-picking system it is quite hard to fight the market...and indeed virtually impossible...as the market correction pulled back our stocks as well. Last weekend, I looked at the week of August 11th, 2003. This weekend, let's review the week of August 18, 2003.

During that week, six selections were made on this website: Measurement Specialties (MSS), PolyMedica (PLMD), Dynacq International (DYIIE), Lifeway Foods (LWAY), Electronics Boutique (ELBO) and DJ Orthopedics (DJO). I do not own shares of any of these stocks.

Measurement Specialties (MSS) was selected on Bob's Advice on 8/18/03 at a price of $12.31. MSS closed on 3/12/04 at $18.65 for a gain of $6.34 or 51.5%.

On February 4, 2004, MSS reported third quarter results for the three months ended December 31, 2003. Sales increased 12.4% to $31.9 million compared to $28.4 million in the prior year. Net income, however, without taking into consideration non-recurring events etc., was down at $.06/share vs $.13/share the prior year. It appears that the company is doing 'o.k.' but not blowing away the numbers (imho). With the outstanding performance, I would certainly hold on to the stock to await next quarters results...but would defer adding to or starting a new position at this time.

PLMD was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/18/03 at a price of $46.05. PLMD closed on 3/12/04 at $26.46. PLMD split 2:1 on 9/30/03, thus our effective pick price was $23.025. Thus, the stock has had a gain of $3.435 or 14.9%.

On February 5, 2004, PolyMedica reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2003 were $106.5 million, compared to $89.9 million the prior year. Net income, however, was $2.2 million or $.08/share compared to $10.4 million, or $.41/share the prior year. The decrease was attributed to one-time write downs of "non-cash impairment charge" related to a write-down of certain assets...and for establishing additional reserves for estimated overpayments by Medicare. With the stock price doing well, I would hesitate to sell, but would avoid buying, and certainly, on any additional bad news, would find me a seller of these shares.

Dynacq International (DYIIE) was the greatest disappointment for this week's picks. I picked Dynacq on 8/19/03 when it was at $24.50. DYIIE closed on 3/12/04 at $5.65/share for a loss of $(18.85) or (76.9)%. Dynacq has had reporting problems, resignation of independent auditor, resignation of chief executive and subsequently delays in reporting financial results with multiple lawsuits filed against the company. This stock, if purchased by me, would have been a good test of the old 8% rule...keeping losses to a minimum. In the meantime, I could not recommend purchase of these shares.

Lifeway Foods was posted on Bob's Advice on 8/21/03 at $14.51. LWAY split 2:1 on 3/9/04, just a few days ago, so our adjusted recommendation was at $7.255. LWAY closed today at $17.60 for a gain of $10.345 or 142.6%.

Electronics Boutique (ELBO) was picked for Bob's Advice on 8/22/03 at $32.30. ELBO closed on 3/12/04 at $27.25 for a loss $(5.05) or (15.6)%.

On March 11, 2004, ELBO reported fourth quarter fiscal 2004 ended January 31, 2004. Income was up nicely at $671.5 million vs $533.5 million last year. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.57 up from $1.21 last year. Same store sales were up 2% in the quarter...a rather tepid growth imho. In addition, ELBO announced growth for the first quarter under analysts expectations. With the tepid same store sales growth and lowered expectations, I would have a hard time recommending this stock for the BLOG.

Finally, on August 22, 2003, I posted DJ Orthopedics on the blog when it was selling at $10.89. DJO closed on 3/12/04 at $20.53 for a gain of $9.64 or 88.5%.

On January 28, 2004, DJO announced fourth quarter 2003 results. Net revenues totalled $54.6 million, an increase of 17.0% over last year's $46.7 million. Net income for the quarter was $4.1 million or $.21/share vs a loss of $(6.0) million or $(0.33)/share the prior year. This company appears to be doing just fine!

Overall, for the six stocks, I had an average gain of 34.2% over the 7 months of observation. Not too bad, and much better than the "seven weeks" review posted earlier today!

Thanks so much for stopping by! Remember to PLEASE do your own reviews and analysis on all of these stocks and consult with your financial advisor for advice on whether the investments are appropriate or not. If you have any questions, comments, or any other queries, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Regards!

Bob


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