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Sunday, 2 May 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the week of October 6, 2003

Hello Friends! It is great to be kicking back and enjoying the weekend! I hope you are having a wonderful Sunday as well! First, the disclaimer: Please remember to do all of your own work on stocks discussed as I am an AMATEUR investor, and also, PLEASE consult with your investment advisors as I am not one, and the investments discussed on this website may or may not be timely, profitable, or even appropriate for your investment needs! There, I just wanted to get that out of the way! As I like to do on weekends, this is an opportunity when the market is closed to pause and reflect, to see how the picks that I have made in the past have ACTUALLY performed! This week, I am up to the week of October 6, 2003. Soon (!) I will be blogging for a year and will need to see if I drop the seven week follow up and stay with about a 7 month, 12 month review. If you have any suggestions, or other comments, as always, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Back to business.

The first selection that I posted on Stock Picks Bobs Advice that week was Inter Parfums (IPAR) which was listed at $10.98 on 10/6/03. IPAR closed at $22.00 on 4/30/04 for a gain of $11.02 or 100.3% during this period!

Insofar as recent news, IPAR 4th quarter 2003 results on 3/9/04. Net sales rose 33% (23% when adjusted for currency exchange rates) to $49.2 million from $37.1 million. Net income increased 34% to $3.7 million from $2.8 million, and diluted earnings/share increased 29% to $.18/share from $.14/share. This company is doing just fine!

The second stock picked that week was Fargo Electronics (FRGO) which was posted for the Blog on 10/6/03 at a price of $14.28. FRGO closed 4/30/04 at $9.65 for a loss of $(4.63) or (32.4)%.

On April 21, 2004, FRGO reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, were $15.6 million compared with net sales of $15.5 million in the same quarter in 2003. Net income for the quarter was $1.4 million or $.11/share vs $1.3 million or $.10/share the prior year. The results were at least steady if not spectacular growth.

I posted Regis (RGS) on Stock Picks Bobs Advice on 10/7/03 at a price of $35.17. RGS closed at $43.42 on 4/30/04 for a gain of $8.25 or 23.5%.

On 4/20/04, RGS announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. Consolidated revenues increased 14% to $481 million from $422 million during the quarter ended March 31, 2004. Earnings increased to a record $25.6 million from $20.9 million or $.55/diluted share compared to $.46/diluted share last year. On a same-store sales basis, they reported a 2.8% increase in same-store sales. These, in my humble opinion, are all solid results!

O.K., three down and four to go!

On October 7, 2003, I also posted CVS Corp (CVS) on the blog at a price of $33.57. CVS closed at $38.63 on 4/30/04 for a gain of $5.06 or 15.1%.

Looking through the news for the latest earnings report, CVS announced 4th quarter 2003 results on 2/12/04. During the quarter, net sales increased 18% to $7.45 billion with same-store sales increasing 7.4%. Same-store pharmacy sales were up 9.1% during the period and earnings came in at $263.4 million or $.64/share up from $.49/share the prior year. These were nice results!

Ceradyne (CRDN), the armor manufacturer, was posted on Stock Picks Bobs Advice on 10/8/03 at a price of $30.50. CRDN split 3:2 on 4/8/04, thus our "pick price" was $20.33. CRDN closed on 4/30/04 at $28.71 for a gain of $8.38 or 41.2%.

On 4/22/04, CRDN announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, jumped 91.3% to $36.7 million from $19.2 million the prior year. Net income was up 231.5% to a record $5 million or $.31/diluted share from $1.5 million or $.11/diluted share the prior year. The average # of shares increased to 16.3 million compared to 13.4 million the prior year due to the "follow-on public offering" in July, 2003. Clearly, the additional shares were NOT enough to water down what appears to be SPECTACULAR results!

Hang in there...two to go!

On October 9, 2003, I posted NetGear (NTGR) on the blog at $17.88. NTGR closed on 4/30/04 at $10.85 for a loss of $(7.03) or (39.3)%.

On 2/12/04, NTGR announced 4th quarter 2003 results. Net revenue increased 20.7% to $86.8 million. Fourth quarter net income dropped to $.12/share from $.15/share, although overall net income was up to $3.9 million from $3.4 million, the number of diluted shares ballooned to 31.6 million from 23.3 million the prior year. Apparently, this stock issuance and the resultant watering down of otherwise nice results is putting a damper on this stock!

LAST ONE!

On October 7, 2003, I selected Infosys Tech (INFY) for the blog at $77.40. INFY closed at $80.74 for a gain of $3.34 or 4.3% during this period.

On April 13, 2004, INFY announced quarterly results for the period ended March 31, 2004. Net profit grew 30% to 3.37 billion rupees ($77 million) from 2.59 billion rupees. They expect net sales also to grow 30 to 31% for the year ended March 31, 2004.

NOW, looking at ALL of the stocks for the week, I had an average gain of 16.1% for the week, with the gains supported by the large 100.3% gain on IPAR, and dragged down by the strong losses in FRGO (32.4)% and Net Gear (39.3)%. CRDN had a nice gain of 41.2% as did Regis at 23.5%. The other stocks had smaller gains.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have ANY questions, comments or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com Have a great Sunday everyone and a profitable week trading next week!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:40 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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