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Saturday, 3 July 2004
A Reader Writes "Check out KSWS"

Hello Friends! Well I JUST got done posting that weekend review....boy that can get to be a chore...so I hope you all enjoy that retrospective review....even WHEN the stocks have done relatively poorly! Please remember AS ALWAYS that I am an AMATEUR investor....so ALWAYS check with your own professional financial advisors before making any decisions based on information on this website!

I had the pleasure of receiving ANOTHER idea from Leon who I believe is based in New Zealand: Leon writes:

check out KSWS.....sales up nicely and eps up year on year......

no debt long term



Leon


Well, let's take a look at K-Swiss (KSWS) and see how it fits into the scheme of things: (I do NOT own any shares of KSWS...but I do NOT know what Leon's ownership status is...)

KSWS closed at $20.68 on 7/2/04, actually UP $.41 or 2.02% in a down market.

My first step: what were the latest quarterly earnings?

On April 28, 2004, KSWS reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues increased 31.3% to $152 million from $116 million the prior year. Net earnings increased 59.5% to $21.8 million from $13.6 million the prior year. On a diluted per share basis, this was a 58.3% increase to $.57/share from $.36/share. Leon, I have to admit, these are GREAT earnings!

Second step: what about longer-term results?

Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that except for a dip in revenue between 1999 and 2000 (from $287 million to $223 million), this stock has been doing quite well growing to $465.4 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings also dipped between 1999 and 2000, dropping to $.49/share from $.75, but have steadily increased to $1.32 in 2003 and $1.53 in the trailing twelve months. Again this looks nice.

Free cash flow has not only been positive but also GROWING. This is a big plus imho. Morningstar shows $20 million in free cash flow in 2001, $25 million in 2002, $31 million in 2003, and $55 million in the trailing twelve months. Again this looks EXCELLENT.

Balance sheet? Leon, you are right, this looks great too. It does appear that they do have some long-term debt, but Morningstar shows $90.2 million in CASH, enough to pay off BOTH their $48.8 million in current liabilities and $19.3 million in long-term liabilities. In addition, Morningstar shows $154.9 million in other current assets. Again, this is a BEAUTIFUL report.

My third step: What about valuation?



Looking at "Key Statistics" from Yahoo, we can see that this is a small-cap stock with a market cap of $730.67 million. The trailing p/e is cheap at 13.38, and the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-05) is even nicer at 12.61. The PEG is GREAT at 1.08, with a price/sales of 1.54. This is priced right!

There are 35.33 million shares outstanding and 25.30 million of them that float. Interestingly, there are 1.72 million shares out short...with a short raio as of 6/7/04 of 4.87. This is DOWN from the prior month's short level of 2.11 million shares...so there IS some short coverage going on, but with the ratio over 3.0, in my book, this is a bullish indicator.

The company even pays a small dividend of $.10/share yielding 0.49%. They last had a split, 2:1 just this past year in December 2003.

My fourth step: What about technicals?




Again, this looks nice, after breaking through a resistance level of about $8.00 in February, 2001, this stock has traded very consistently higher along its support line. This was recently challenged with a pull back to $18.00 since April, 2004, but has rebounded back above its support level successfully. Again, I am NOT a master technician, but this chart looks fine to me!

What do I think? Well Leon, this stock looks terrific! It DOES fill the criteria that I like to look for. I do not know much about the shoe business except to say how fickle the consumer can be in regards to styles, etc., so on a Peter Lynch kind of level I do not know what to expect. On a purely numerical, technical basis, which is how I select stocks, this is a nice pick!

Please remember that I am an amateur investor! If you have any questions, or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Thanks for writing Leon!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:59 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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