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Sunday, 25 July 2004
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of July 14, 2003






Hello Friends! The weekend is almost over and I haven't done my homework. Well here it is, so let's take a look at the week of July 14, 2003, and see how the stock selected would have performed if we had employed a "buy and hold" strategy. Of course, our results would have been affected by 8% loss stops and sales on gains, but for simplicity, let's just see what has happened to the stock prices since posting. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors before taking any action based on information on this website.

On July 14, 2003, I posted Echelon (ELON) on Stock Picks at a price of $17.05. ELON closed at $7.39 on 7/23/04, for a loss of $(9.66) or (56.7)%.

Echelon reported 2nd quarter 2004 results on July 15, 2004. Revenues for the quarter ended June 30, 2004, were $28.3 million, compared to revenues of $31.3 million for the same period in 2003, a decline of about 10%. Earnings came in at $1.5 million or $.04/share for the quarter ended June 30, 2003, compared to a loss of $(6.3) million, or $(.16)/share last year. The improving earnings picture is encouraging (did I pick this stock last year with a loss?), but the declining revenue is of some concern, as is the stock price!

On July 14, 2003, I posted Fidelity National Financial (FNF) on July 14, 2003, when it was trading at $33.66. FNF closed at $36.29 on 7/23/04 for a gain of $2.63 or 7.8%.

FNF reported 2nd quarter 2004 results on 7/22/04. Net earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2004, came in at $222.1 million or $1.26/diluted share down from $248.3 million or $1.62/diluted share last year. These are not the kind of results I would like to see in stocks picked on this blog!

Capital One Financial (COF) was posted on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on 7/14/03 at $55.00. COF closed at $67.97 on 7/23/04 for a gain of $12.97 or 23.6%.

On July 21, 2004, COF reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter rose to $2.11 billion from $1.99 billion last year. Quarterly earnings came in at $407.4 million or $1.65/share up from $286.2 million or $1.23/share a year ago. In addition, they exceeded the $1.50/share that analysts were looking for, so this was a nice result for COF!

On July 15, 2003, I posted Harley Davidson (HDI) on Stock Picks at $43.68. HDI at $59.75 on 7/23/04 for a gain of $16.07 or 36.8%.

HDI reported 2nd quarter results on July 14, 2004. Revenue in the quarter grew 8.9% to $1.33 billion from last year's $1.22 billion. Net income came in at $247.2 million or $.83/share up from $202.2 million or $.66/share last year. These were solid results for Harley-Davidson.

I posted EPIQ Systems (EPIQ) on Stock Picks at $19.62 on 7/15/03. EPIQ closed at $14.33 on 7/23/04 for a loss of $(5.29) or (27)%.

On April 27, 2004, EPIQ announced 1st quarter results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, revenue increased 85% to $26.0 million from $14.1 million. Net income, however, dropped to $2.0 million from $2.7 million with diluted earnings per share coming in at $.11 vs. $.15/share. Would rather see robust earnings to go along with the strong revenue growth!

On May 26, 2004, Pharmaceutical Resouces was renamed Par Pharmaceutical Companies, Inc. (PRX). PRX was selected for Stock Picks on 7/16/03 at a price of $52.83. PRX closed on 7/23/04 at $33.19 for a loss of $(19.64) or (37.2)%.

On April 29, 2004, PRX announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenues grew 99% to $211.8 million and net income rose 35% to $30.2 million with diluted earnings per share rising 27% to $.85. These were great results. However, on July 7, 2004, PRX announced an adverse court decision that it lost against Pfizer (PFE) on the issue of Latanaprost. Latanaprost is the #1 medication world-wide for the treatment of glaucoma.

On July 17, 2003, I picked Closure (CLSR) for Stock Picks at $23.40. CLSR closed at $17.90 on 7/23/04 for a loss of $(5.50) or (23.5)%.

On July 22, 2004, CLSR announced 2nd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2004, revenue increased 33% to $11.3 million from $8.5 million the prior year. Net income jumped 52% to $2.5 million or $.17/share vs. $.12/share the prior year. Within this apparently GREAT news story, was a comment that the next quarter should see revenue in the range of $9.5-$10.5 million, and per share diluted earnings of $.12-$.15. This is a decrease from the current quarter and the "streeet" didn't like what it heard!

Hang in there! Just three more to go!






ITT Educational Services (ESI) was posted on Stock Picks on 7/17/03 at $36.13. ESI closed at $33.43 on 7/23/04 for a loss of $(2.70) or (7.5)%.

On July 21, 2004, ESI reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenues increased 20.9% to $150.9 million from $124.8 million in 2003. This was done with an 18.4% increase in student enrollment. Net income increased 42% to $14.0 million from $9.8 million. Fully diluted Earnings per share increased 42.9% to $.30 from $.21 the prior year. Unfortunately, ESI continues to be subject to a Department of Justice and SEC investigation. This is depressing the stock price!

On July 18, 2003, I selected Hansen Natural (HANS) for Stock Picks at $5.38. On 7/23/04, HANS closed at $18.71, for a gain of $13.33 or 248%. (This one selection SAVED the week for me for this review!).

On May 6, 2004, HANS reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Gross sales increased 39.9% to $38.7 million from $27.7 million a year earlier. Net income for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, increased 244.9% to $2.2 million from $633,000 last year, or on a per share basis $.19/share vs. $.06/diluted share last year.
These were GREAT results!

On July 18, 2003, I selected Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) for Stock Picks at $60.15. BIO closed at $53.00 on 7/23/04 for a loss of $(7.15) or (11.9)%.

On May 6, 2004, BIO reported 1st quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, net sales were $266.6 million, up 8.4% compared to $246.0 million the prior year. This was largely due to currency effects, so sales were actually flat. Net income for the quarter was $22.0 million, compared to $26.4 million the prior year. On a fully diluted basis, earnings came in at $.83/share this year compared to $1.01/share last year. These are not very exciting results and the stock price reflects this.

So how did we do during this week a little over a year ago? Of these ten stocks, there were 6 stocks declining and four rising over the one-year period. The HUGE gain of 248% of HANS pulled up the averages for an average gain of 15.2%.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Bob




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