Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Monday, 19 May 2003
May 19, 2003 Genentech (DNA)
Overall a lousy day in the market. Genentech (DNA) tops the largest percentage gainers today with news about a new possible treatment for Colon and Rectal Cancer. Advanced colon and rectal cancer has a rather dismal prognosis and we all know people who have succumbed to the disease. Anyhow Genentech has a new drug called AVASTIN which along with traditional chemotherapy has successfully extended the lifespan of individuals in their study who have this life-threatening illness.
A nice coincidence for us is that Genentech FITS our protocol...last quarter (ending 3/3103), per our cnn.money site, revenues rose 29% (!) to $768.6 Million, net income rose 59% to $151.5 Million.(!)...
Looking at the past 5 years, as we like to do around here, we find that the revenue has increased from $1.2 billion in 1998, 1.4 billion in 1999, 1.7 billion in 2000, 2.2 billion in 2001, and 2.7 billion in 2002. Extrapolating this latest quarter (x4) gives us over 3.0 billion for 2003. The consistency of the revenue growth is impressive.
The last four quarters as reported in Morningstar (prior to the CURRENT quarter noted above), we find that revenues increased by 13.59%, 26.45%, 21.40%, and 29.69%....and the latest quarter up by 29% as well. Cash flow has improved...from 81 million positive in 2000, to 267 million in 2001, and 265 million in 2002 the latest year reported.
So at the moment (12:05 pm CST), stock is at $53.04 up $15.14 (WOW), p/e is a bit steep (to say the least) at 212.40....yikes....but otherwise this stock fits the bill....would add a position in my own portfolio (I do not own any shares nor does anyone in my family)...but I do not have a stock that needs to be sold due to a gain....but this is one for the list. Good luck investing. Bob
Friday, 16 May 2003
May 16, 2003 Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
It is 1:13 Central Time here in Wisconsin and the market is fighting back to even. Unfortunately hit my 8% stop in my own portfolio and went ahead and sold my BBA shares (Bombay). Since I am in margin, went ahead and applied the proceeds to my margin account....will wait for a 40 or 50% gainer to sell a little and add a position.
Interestingly, looking through the biggest percentage gainers, we have come across a REIT. These are the Real Estate Investment Trust type companies that own properties such as apartment buildings and retail/office space. This company reported the first quarter results on April 22nd, with a 15.5% increase in net income and a 13.8% increase in revenues and declared a $.48 dividend as well. The company yields a nice 8.57% (!!) dividend as well. I do not own any shares and do not plan at this time on acquiring any. (you know how the portfolio rules go....around here).
Agree is trading as I write at $23.41/share up $1.00 on the day (a 4.46% rise). Stock by the way has a p/e of 11.04 and a market cap (tiny) of $104.9 million. There are ONLY 4.48 Million shares outstanding and of these only 3.90 Million 'float'..
Looking at Morningstar, we see a nice trend with 19.7 Million in revenue in 1998, 21.9 million in 1999, 23.7 million in 2000, 24.7 million in 2001, and 25.8 million in 2002. Not meteoric, but consistent. Looking at the last quarter revenue of just over 7 million, we can anticipate, if things hold true...a 28 million revenue in 2003. Not too shabby.
I don't like the small float on this one and thus the lack of attention the street pays....but with an 8.5% dividend, when money funds are generating about 0.9%....what the heck! This stock is worth a shot...but hang onto the 8% stop loss if you choose to invest. Good luck! And have a great weekend!
Thursday, 15 May 2003
May 15, 2003 AMN Healthcare Services (AHS)
Scanning through the NYSE best advancers, AHS shows up. Stock is at $10.05 up $.53 for a 5.7% gain or thereabouts. Last quarter just reported is a little confusing--reported on April 29th, showing a 15% increase in revenue with a 21% increase in earnings per share. The company which apparently does 'locums' healthcare people has had a fairly meteoric growth in revenue from $68.8 million in 1997 to 87.7 million in 1998, 146.5 million in 1999, and 230.8 million in 2000, 517.8 million in 2001 and 663.8 million for the trailing 12 months....at least on Morningstar. With the last quarter at 199 million....extrapolating gets about 800 million for next 12 months. However, short term, same day they also reported they expect to miss Wall Street's estimates for the coming quarter. Cash flow wise they are still burning some cash...at least as of 2002 Morningstar website....may actually be cash flow positive at this time based on trends. Anyhow, that 's a provocative pick for this site....I don't own any. Actually hit an 8% stop today on my portfolio with ITIC....a title insurance company...that has low daily volume and thus liquidity. Something probably to avoid to escape the subsequent volatility that comes with very few shares traded daily. Good luck! Bob
Wednesday, 14 May 2003
May 14, 2003 HealthExtras
It is 10 minutes before the close of trading and scanning the list again a new name has popped up for consideration. I do not own this stock and am not currently planning to purchase it....but may in the future! HealthExtras...at $5.70 up $.77 or 15.62%. Wow....a blazing pop in this small (!) company. Looking at the news....through Yahoo....we find that earnings were just reported...revenue of 91.7 million, a 68% increase over the prior year and net income of $1.9 million....a 221% increase from the prior year (!). Company is in pharmacy benefit management...as everyone knows a very HOT area...just listen to the politicians talking about benefits for seniors, etc. Checking out Morningstar, we find sequential growth in revenue....from 5.3 million in 1999, 44.2 million in 2000, 124.4 million in 2001, and 226 million for the trailing 12 months. What is there NOT to like? Probably SHOULD buy this myself....but for now....my portfolio is FULL..and will buy only when one of my stocks hits the 40-50% gain I am planning on....then can add a new position. Good luck. Bob
P.S. the symbol for this one is HLEX....tell me what you think.
j2 Global Communications
Looks like I failed to list the symbol...trades under JCOM. Bob :)
May 14, 2003 j2 Global Communications
Scanning those most active lists again today...not much luck until we got to j2 Global Communications. I do not at this time own any share of this stock. It is about 11:30 am Central time here in Wisconsin. Last quarter revenues rose 47% to $15.2 Million (a small company!) Net Income rose to $5 million up from $1.5 million the year earlier. According to CNN.money....j2 Global Communications "provides outsourced messaging and communications services to businesses and individuals throughout the world." I am not sure exactly what they do (!) but they are making money and this is certainly NOT a Peter Lynch approach of I 'saw it at the mall'.
Looking at Morningstar.com, under 5 year financials, this choice is clinched. We see revenue of 0.7 Million in 1997, 3.5 million in 1998, 7.6 million in 1999, 13.9 million in 2000 and 33.3 million in 2001. Trailing 12 months is 43.8 million. These bar graphs are a beauty to behold! In the past 12 months the company has turned profitable. They have sequential earnings and revenue growth...and are starting to generate free cash flow. Thus, the choice to be posted today! Good luck investing....Bob
Tuesday, 13 May 2003
May 13, 2003
Not a great day in the market. Scanned the lists but nothing fits our criteria. STJ down $.38 at $54.92. Actually this is quite strong after the big move yesterday. Not much selling interest on this stock today at least. St. Jude, looking through the news, is making a purchase of a company that uses ultrasound energy to treat atrial fibrillation, a common cardiac arrhythmia. Reading through the Morningstar figures on this company, one can see the LARGE amount of free cash flow generated and thus the easy acquisition. Thanks for stopping by.
Monday, 12 May 2003
May 12, 2003 St Jude Medical
This is one I picked up today. STJ is the stock symbol. I do not as I write and publish this own any shares. Am thinking about suggesting this to my stock club. Company had a great day today with a nice move on the upside. Last Quarter was good and the past five years have been steady growth. Closed at $55.30 up $2.92. So the daily momentum helped it make the list.
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