October 29, 2003 OPNET Technologies, Inc. (OPNT)
It is late here and I thought I would check and see if I could get something posted today that fits our criteria. As always, please be sure to check with your own financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

OPNET (OPNT), according to money.cnn.com, "...provides network management software solutions that enable organizations to optimize the performance and maximize the availability of communications networks and networked applications." Yesterday after the close, OPNT reported their second quarter results which were good and the stock moved up higher today in response to the news. As of the close, OPNT was at $14.10, up $1.85 or 15.10% on the day.

On October 28, 2003, as reported by BUSINESS WIRE and as picked up by Yahoo.com, OPNT reported results for the second fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2003. Revenue for the quarter grew to $13.4 million from $11.1 million the prior year. Earnings per share for the second quarter of fiscal 2004 were $.07/diluted share compared to $.03/diluted share for the same period last year.

Looking at Morningstar.com, we find that the growth in this company has been steady the last several years. They reported revenue of $12 million in 1999, $19 million in 2000, $33 million in 2001, $45 million in 2002, $46 million in 2003 and extrapolating the current quarter would get us to over $50 million in 2004 fiscal year.

Earnings/share have been a bit erratic with $.22 reported in fiscal 2002 and $.14 in fiscal 2003. Extrapolating the current quarter would get us at $.28/share for 2004.

Free cash flow has been positive and improving recently with $4 million reported in 2001, $1 million in 2002, $7 million in 2003 and $9 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet as reported on Morningstar looks excellent: $72.9 million in cash, more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $4.0 million and the long-term liabilities of $12.0 million. In addition, OPNT has $9.3 million in other current assets.

This company, as reported on Yahoo, has a market cap of $275.63 million. The trailing p/e is steep at 71.94, but the forward p/e for the fiscal year ending March, 2005, is much more reasonable at 30.62 due to the fast growth rate. In fact, the PEG ratio is a very reasonable 0.64 when looking at five year estimates.

Yahoo reports 19.55 million shares outstanding with 11.10 million of them that float. Currently 157,000 shares are out short representing 1.963 days of trading as of 10/8/03. No dividend is paid.

I do not own any shares of this stock, but it is another interesting company with steady growth, growing free cash, excellent balance sheet, but a bit pricey insofar as the p/e is concerned. With a PEG ratio under 1.0, however, the p/e should be dropping quickly if the earnings continue to grow as expected.

Thanks again for stopping by! Always remember to consult with your own financial advisor prior to acting on anything on this website! If you have any questions or comments, you can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

October 28, 2003 Altiris, Inc. (ATRS)
O.K. another stock to consider. Again, as always, please consult with your own investment advisor before making any decisions based on my posts on this site.

According to money.cnn.com, Altiris (ATRS) "...develops, markets and supports information technology (IT) lifestyle management software products that manage software and hardware in IT environments." They reported their earnings after the market close yesterday and the good news is driving this stock higher. Currently as I write, ATRS is trading at $31.93, a gain of $4.46 or 16.24% on the day.

As reported on Yahoo.com, from PRNewsire-First Call, on October 27, 2003, ALTRS reported their financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Revenue reported was $25.4 million, an increase of 59% over the third quarter of 2002 and 11% over the second quarter or 2003. Net income was $3.8 million, or $.15/diluted share, compared to a net loss of ($359,000) or ($.02)/diluted share in the same period last year.

Morningstar.com shows a nice growth pattern from $2 million in revenue in 1998, $4 million in 1999, $10 million in 2000, $34 million in 2001 and $63 million in 2002. Extrapolating the current quarter would get us over $100 million for 2003.

Although losing money until the last few quarters, free cash flow improved a couple of years ago from ($4) million in 2000, $1 million in 2001 and $8 million in 2002.

Balance sheet on this one is beautiful! As reported on Morningstar.com, ATRS has $72.9 million in cash, way more than enough to cover both the $20.5 million in current liabilities and $3.4 million in long-term liabilities combined. In addition, they have $12.9 million in other current assets.

Looking again at Yahoo.com, we find that the company has a market cap of $690.62 million with a trailing p/e of 65.36 and a forward p/e (2004) of 39.24. The PEG ratio is 2.03, and price/sales is 6.81. Clearly, this is not a totally undiscovered stock that is still cheap!

ATRS has 21.61 million shares outstanding with only 8.90 million shares float. Again there are a LOT of shares out short. As of 10/8/03, 3.44 million shares are out short, representing 11.332 days of trading. Either bad news is forthcoming...does not appear likely...or there will be a scramble to cover these short sales resulting in a 'squeeze' of those sellers selling short. (in my humble opinion!) No dividend is paid.

I like this stock, but it isn't cheap. The financial results are quite fabulous and might be a good investment in here. But you know the old story, margin, margin, margin....so I have made my purchase today already...will need to wait for the existing stocks to hit some sell points so we can may be add another issue to our portfolio.

Thanks for stopping by. Please as always consult your investment advisor before making any decisions based on what is written here. If you have any questions, you can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

October 28, 2003 Portfolio Recovery Associates, Inc. (PRAA)
First of all, I saw this stock some months back and have not posted this as it has not gotten into the most advancing lists. Second, I have just purchased 150 shares of this stock. I always try to let you know when I own a stock or not, and this one I have purchased. Lastly, as I continue to emphasize, I will share with you my thinking on this company. Please consult with your own investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on anything you may read here...I am not an investment advisor but rather a passionate investment amateur!

O.K., enough with the serious stuff, Portfolio Recover Associates, Inc. (PRAA), according to money.cnn.com, "...is a full-service provider of outsourced receivables management who purchases, collects and manages portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables." (If we get through the jargon, they sound like a bill-collector to me!) They reported their earnings yesterday and the stock is making a nice move today trading as I write at $26.93 up $3.33 or 14.11% on the day.

According to Yahoo.com, as reported on MARKET WIRE on October 27, 2003, third quarter results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003, was quite good. Net income for the quarter was $5.5 million or $.35/share compared to $3.2 million or $.27/share last year. Total revenue for the quarter rose to $22.2 million in the third quarter of 2003 from $15.2 million in the same period last year.

Looking at Morningstar.com, we find that revenues have grown from $7 million in 1998, $12 million in 1999, $19 million in 2000, $32 million in 2001, $56 million in 2002, and extrapolating the current quarter would get us over $80 million in 2003.

Free cash flow the last few years has improved nicely from $2 million in 2000, $5 million in 2001, $21 million in 2002.

The balance sheet is excellent with $17.9 million in cash, more than adequate to cover the current liabilities of $5.9 million and long-term liabilities of $1.8 million combined. In addition, they also have $65.5 million in other current assets per Morningstar.com.

Checking Yahoo again for some statistics, we find that the market cap of this company is $406.21 Million, the trailing p/e is quite reasonable at 19.69, the PEG ratio is also nice at 0.94. However, price/sales a bit rich at 5.04.

PRAA has 15.08 million shares outstanding with 13.40 million of them that float. Currently there are 3.60 million shares out SHORT...a HUGE amount with a short ratio of 18.674...meaning it would take 18+ days of average trading volume for the shorts to cover their borrowed shares. This figure was updated on 10/8/03 per Yahoo. Also, the short interest is up from 2.70 million last month. Either the shorts know something I don't see...or they are in for one heck of a squeeze. PRAA does not pay a dividend.

As you can see I like this stock and have purchased 150 shares. This must be a bit of a volatile issue as Fidelity insisted on 100% margin equity...that is NO borrowing allowed to purchase this stock. I would rather not recommend after purchasing, but when I have done this, as this time, I let you know!

Thanks again for stopping by. Please discuss this and all stocks on this site with your own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions based on what I write here!

If you have any questions, please write me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"How Are we Doing?" A look back on the week of September 8, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I as always, encourage you to consult with your certified investment advisor before taking ANY actions based on this BLOG. That being said, I appreciate your visit and encourage your comments. You can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

During the week of September 8, 2003, about 7 weeks ago, I made four picks: Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK) at $28.75 on 9/8/03, Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) at $23.10 on 9/8/03, Hanger Orthopedic Group (HGR) at $14.75 on 9/12/03, and Scientific Games (SGMS) at $11.55 on 9/12/03. Of these stocks, I purchased only MMSI for my trading account, and not having hit any 8% losses, I still own some shares. My son also owns 50 shares of MMSI in one of his accounts that was purchased shortly after my purchase.

HITK closed on 10/24/03 at $22.41. This is a loss of ($6.34)/share or (28.3%). MMSI closed 10/24/03 at $25.48. This is a gain of $2.38 or 10.3%. Hanger Orthopedic Group (HGR) closed Friday, 10/24/03, at $15.98. This is a gain of $1.23 or 8.3%. Finally, Scientific Games closed 10/24/03 at $11.78. This is a gain of $.23 or 2.0%.

Overall, we had three gainers and one loser. Unfortunately, the loss was a big one! Thus, on an average basis, the four stocks suffered an average loss of (1.93%) over the six week period that we have watched them. This once again demonstrates the importance of fairly close stops to prevent losses from building up!

Thanks again for stopping by and please come back and visit again and again!

Have a great week!

Bob

October 24, 2003 Business Objects, S.A. (ADR) (BOBJ)
Hello friends! As always, it is nice to have you back visiting. If you are new here, please feel free to explore the past posts on this site. I must continue to tell you that this is a diary of my interactions with the market. Stocks I like and am thinking about buying and selling. Please consult your own financial consultant as I am just an amateur who likes to write and comment on the stock market!

I am going to try to take us International again today. I have an ADR that I just came across that is based in France yet fits my criteria for great numbers. I do not own any shares of BOBJ. Yes, Business Objects, an ADR, symbol BOBJ, is the one I want to look at today. According to money.cnn.com, BOBJ "...develops, markets and supports integrated enterprise decision support software tools that allow non-technical end users to access, report and analyze information in relational databases." BOBJ is having a very nice day today trading at $32.15, up $3.48 or 12.14% on the day.

Yesterday, after the close of the NYSE (4:07 pm ET), BOBJ reported results for the third quarter and they were very nice. As reported on BUSINESS WIRE and picked up by USA TODAY online, third quarter revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 2003, were $129.1 million, an increase of 18% over revenues of $109.9 million in the prior year. Net income was $10.8 million, or $.17/diluted share and ADS, up 122% (!) compared to net income of $4.9 million or $.08/diluted share and ADS reported in 2002. However, it was noted in the report, that last year's results included a $3.3 million non-recurring expense, so maybe the results which were solid weren't quite as spectacular.

Looking at Morningstar.com for some past results, we find that revenue for BOBJ has grown nicely in the recent years. In 1998, BOBJ had $166.9 million in revenue, $241.6 million in 1999, $348.9 million in 2000, $415.8 million in 2001, $454.8 million in 2002, and $483.6 million in the trailing twelve months.

During this time, earnings/share have grown from $.19/share in 1998 up to $.60/share in trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has improved from a solid $55 million in 2000, $55 million in 2001, $57 million in 2002 to $64 million in the trailing twelve months.

Balance Sheet on Morningstar.com looks fabulous: $363.0 million in cash, more than enough to pay off the $215.1 million in current assets and $7.5 million in long-term liabilities combined. In addition, BOBJ has $129.8 million in other current assets.

This is not a SMALL company as it has a market cap of 2.03 Billion, NOR is it CHEAP: p/e of 46.69, PEG ratio of 2.69, and price/sales of 3.61. There are 63.24 million shares outstanding and 61.40 million of them that float. There are 5.36 million shares out short representing 6.05 trading days of volume as of 9/8/03. No dividend is paid. Last stock split was a 3:2 split in March, 2001.

This company is doing GREAT. However, with the p/e a bit rich, and PEG over 2.5, this is NOT cheap. I am not in a hurry to pick up any shares of this stock...but certainly need to keep it on our horizon! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, leave them right here by clicking on "no comments" below each post....or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com!

Bob

October 23, 2003 SM&A (WINS)
WHERE do I keep finding these companies? lol. Really, it is quite mechanical, just scan the top percentage gainers, emphasize stocks over $10, look at latest quarter, Morningstar.com....and there you have it! Remember, I cannot emphasize enough, I want all of you who read these posts to discuss these ideas with your own professional investment advisor before acting on them!

Anyhow, enough with the lecture, SM&A (WINS) is "...a provider of competition management services, business consulting and program services." They came out with earnings today before the stock opened and even though the rest of the market is down, WINS is up strong. Currently, WINS is trading at $13.248, up $1.218 or 10.12%.

Today, as reported on Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE, WINS reported their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. Revenue for the quarter was $18.7 million, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. Net income was $2.9 million or $.13/share, an increase of 78% from last year's results.

Morningstar.com shows two different revenue growth patterns. Looking at the "10-Yr Income" tab, we find revenue increasing between 1995 and 2000 and then dropping off significantly to 2001. However, since 2001, things have been looking much better again. Revenue has grown from $39.6 million to $66.4 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings have grown from $.25/share in 1999 to $.51 in trailing twelve months. Free cash flow is positive at $3 million in 2000, improving to $8 million in trailing twelve months.

Balance sheet is solit with $10.7 million in cash vs. $9.2 million in current liabilities and only $300,000 in long-term debt. In addition, Morningstar reports an additional $14.4 million in other current assets.

Yahoo.com shows Market Cap of $264.0 million. P/E reasonable at 20.05 with PEG ratio of 1.76, Price/sales at 3.64. There are 20.10 million shares outstanding with 13.4 million that float. There are 210,000 shares out short as of 9/8/03. Due to low trading volume, this represents 2.561 days of average trading.

This company is very interesting and may be worth your consideration. I do not own any shares. Before making any purchases based on information from this site however, please consult with your financial advisor! Thanks for stopping by.

Bob

October 23, 2003 Shenandoah Telecommunic. (SHEN)
Market opened down sharply but is trying (?) to come back a bit as I write. Scanning through the lists of greatest percentage gainers on money.cnn.com, I came across Shenandoah Telecommunications (SHEN). SHEN is having a nice day trading at $43.50 as I write, up $2.50 or 6.10%. They announced several things that will tend to boost the stock price: a 2:1 stock split, an increase in dividend, and great earnings for the quarter! I do not own any shares of SHEN.

According to money.cnn.com, SHEN "...is a diversified telecommunications holding company providing both regulated and unregulated services in the Northern Shenandoah valley, including telephone, cable, Internet access, paging, mobile, and other services."

As reported yesterday, after the close of the market, on PRNewsire-First Call and picked up by Yahoo Finance, Shenandoah released results for the third quarter of 2003. Unaudited results for the period ended September 30, 2003 showed net income for the quarter was $2.7 million compared to $0.4 million in the same quarter last year, and total third quarter revenues grew by 12% from the same quarter last year. In addition, as noted above, SHEN announced a stock split for shareholders of record as of January 30, 2004. In addition, they declared a cash dividend of $.78/share, which is a 5.4% increase over the 2002 dividend. Nice report don't you think?

Morningstar.com shows SHEN with a nice sequential revenue growth from $36 million in 1998, $42 million in 1999, $44 million in 2000, $69 million in 2001, $93 million in 2002 and $97 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings/share have been a bit erratic but have increased from $1.49 in 1998, to $7.08 in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has also been improving the latest few years: ($34) million in 2000, ($18) million in 2001, $0 in 2002 and $9 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet is reasonable with cash reported of $36.3 million, enough to cover the current liabilities of $29.3 million with an additional $11.1 million of other current assets. The company does have a bit of long-term debt at $63.2 million.

Yahoo shows a market cap of only $164.86 million. Trailing p/e at 26.11, PEG ratio reasonable at 1.18, and price/sales nice at 1.56.

There are only 3.79 million shares outstanding and 3.30 million of them that float. Only 7,000 shares are reported out short as of 9/8/03. However, this stock is lightly traded and this represents 2.333 days of trading. Per Yahoo, the yield is currently at 1.90%. Last stock split was a 2:1 in March of 1995.

This company is small, but it appears to be doing well. Pays a dividend, is growing its revenue and earnings, positive and improving cash flow, moderate p/e with outstanding PEG ratio and Price/Sales. Looks nice to me!

If you have any questions, comments or words of encouragement, please contact me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Remember, all commentary here is my personal opinion, and you should be aware of the risks of investing including losses and all decisions that you make should involve consultation with your own certified financial advisor.

Bob

"Disclaimer" Please read.
This website is a blast for me. I enjoy writing about stocks and the market but I am NOT a professional advisor and do not have the credentials behind me to give me that perspective. Thus, I must urge you to consult with your personal financial advisor whenever you think about acting on any of my "picks" or "ideas". I try to use reliable information from Morningstar.com, Yahoo.com, NYTimes.com and try to let you know where I get this information and whether I am acting myself on this information by buying, selling, or owning the equities involved. Thank you for acting responsibly with this website. If you have any questions about this, please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Trading Transparency" SFCC
The market took a bit of a swoon yesterday and this morning. We hit one loss limit quickly on SFBC International (SFCC) and sold our 200 shares at $30.231. This also eases the margin pressure a little on the account! Please remember, that what I do here on this site is for your entertainment. I am not an investing professional and you need to review all of your investment decisions with your own investing advisors! Have a great day! Bob

October 22, 2003 Headwaters (HDWR)
What a LOUSY day in the market. Dow down 100+, Nasdaq down 40+....but here I am scanning the stock lists. I must be in denial. But in spite of all the noise on the street I think we have a good stock that is worth your examination. Headwaters (HDWR), boy I wish I owned this one in my portfolio....is trading at $17.41 up today in this lousy market by $1.82 or 11.67%.

According to money.cnn.com, Headwaters "...is engaged in developing and deploying energy-related technologies to the marketplace. It is focused on coverting fossil fuels into alternative energy products." How about THAT for a timely investment?

Some of the numbers are a little confusing, but I got a good earnings report for the Second Quarter ended June 30, 2003, by going to the Headwaters website. Anyhow, Total revenue (pro forma) which I assume accounts for acquisitions, was $94.1 million in 2002, and $106.4 million in 2003 second quarter. Operating income increased from $17.6 million to $21.7 million in 2003, and on a per share basis, increased from $.31/share to $.37. The stock moved up nicely by being upgraded by Stephens, Inc., and looking at the headlines, we find that Adams Harkness also upgraded this stock on 9/29/03.

Morningstar.com shows a nice picture of rapidly growing revenue from $2 million in 1998, $7 million in 1999, $27.9 million in 2000, $45.5 million in 2001, $119.3 million in 2002 and $250 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings from share have improved smartly from a loss of ($1.17) in 1998 to a profit of $1.07 in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow, another of my favorite indices, has been increasing nicely from $6 millin in 2000, $19 million in 2001, $42 million in 2002, and $55 million in the trailing twelve months.

The balance sheet is a bit of concern to me with only $10.7 million in cash, $66.5 million in other current assets, enough to cover current liabilities of $61.4 million but not enough to cover long-term liabilities of $189.5 million...but with the increasing free cash flow, this does not appear to be a problem for this company. After all, long-term liabilities are not due NOW....but sometime in the future, when free cash flow should cover them.

On Yahoo.com, we find that the market cap of this company is $484.92 million. The trailing p/e is, get this 13.21, the PEG ratio is 0.53 and price/sales is 1.33. Wow, these are NICE numbers.

There are 27.79 million shares outstanding and 26.5 million of them float. Currently there are 996,000 shares out short representing 3.009 days of average trading volume. No cash dividend is paid and the last stock dividend was a 2:1 in January of 1996.

On a Peter Lynch basis, intuitively, investing in a company involved in coal into alternative energy products makes sense. On a numerical basis, this stock looks GREAT. They have had two recent upgrades and have a REASONABLE p/e, and a PEG ratio under 1.0. Price/sales is also good at 1.33.
Now, if I wasn't already MARGINED to my ears, and actually adding some cash to my account, I would consider buying some of these shares. As you can see, I don't own any of these shares at this time.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, please feel free to post them here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com!

Bob