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Sunday, 12 June 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of April 19, 2004






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I just finished responding to William Z. about performance of all of the stock picks that I write about. I guess this is where the "amateur" status really shows up. I do not have a master spreadsheet or other methods at this time of monitoring all of my stock picks. However, you can review all of them by clicking on the dates along the left side of the blog itself.

What I do like to do is to systematically review stock picks looking back about a year, a week at a time. Last weekend I was reviewing the week of April 12, 2004, and this week I shall be looking at the week of April 19, 2004.

My actual performance using these picks is different than this review would infer. First of all, I only own a small fraction of all of the stocks I review. I have tried to keep you posted regarding my trading portfolio which currently consists of 23 positions and which stocks I own and when I buy and sell them. Just review the past picks and you will come across all of those posts. (In addition, if I can get around to it, I have a trading portfolio up on the blog that you can reach through the link along the left side of the blog.)

This review assumes a buy and hold strategy. For my own portfolio, I sell stocks quickly if they reach or exceed an 8% loss; I also sell stocks "slowly", that is 1/4 positions, when they have gains of 30%, 60%, 90% 120%, then 180%, 240%, 300%, 360%, then by 90% intervals, etc.

On April 19, 2004, I posted Misonix on Stock Picks at a price of $11.35. MSON closed at $5.90 on 6/10/05, for a loss of ($5.45) or (48%).

On May 5, 2005, MSON reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2005, came in at $10.9 million, a 5% increase from the $10.3 million reported in the same quarter the prior year. However, net income came in at $3,000 or $.0/diluted share compared with net income of $388,000 or $.06/diluted share for the same quarter in 2004.

On April 19, 2004, I posted Carbo Ceramics (CRR) on Stock Picks at a price of $68.75. CRR closed at $74.40 on 6/10/05 for a gain of $5.65 or 8.2%.

On April 28, 2005, CRR announced 1st quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2005, revenues grew 22% to $61.2 million and net income increase 21% to $11.6 million or $.72/diluted share.

On April 21, 2004, I posted FLIR Systems (FLIR) on Stock Picks at a price of $43.13. FLIR split 2:1 on 2/3/05, making our resultant stock pick price actually $21.57. FLIR closed at $27.04 on 6/10/05, for a gain of $5.47 or 25.4%.

On April 20, 2005, FLIR announced 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenue dropped slightly to $108.3 million in the quarter from $108.9 million the prior year. Net earnings grew 16% to $14.7 million, from $12.7 million. On a per diluted share basis, this came in at $.19/share compared to $.17/share in the prior year.

I gave FLIR and any of my other stocks a "thumbs-down" when either the revenue or earnings decline in a given quarter.

On April 21, 2004, I posted J&J Snack Foods (JJSF) on Stock Picks at $44.07. JJSF closed at $49.96 on 6/10/05, for a gain of $5.89 or 13.4%.

On April 20, 2005, JJSF announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended March 26, 2005, increased 4% to $99.4 million from $95.2 million in the prior year second quarter. Net earnings jumped 13% to $3.8 million from $3.3 million in 2004. On a diluted per share basis, earnings came in at $.41/diluted share up from $.36/diluted share in the 2nd quarter of 2004.

Finally, on April 22, 2004, I posted Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) on Stock Picks at $11.22. This is the only stock of the group that I currently own in my trading account. VIVO closed at $20.12 on 6/10/05 for a gain of $8.90 or 79.3%.

On April 21, 2005, VIVO announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2005, came in at $23.7, up 13% from $20.9 million the prior year. Net earnings came in at $3.2 million, up 40% from $2.3 million the prior year. On a diluted per share basis this came in at $.20/share, up 33% from the prior year's $.15/diluted share.

So how did I do with my stock picks that particular week? Actually, quite good, with only one loss, albeit a significant one with MSON, and the other four showing gains for an average gain of 15.7% since posting!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog otherwise, feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob







Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:17 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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