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Sunday, 10 April 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of February 23, 2004






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. I cannot be responsible for any losses generated by your trading and shall not ask for any credit!

If you are new to this website, I am happy to welcome you and hope that you enjoy your visit. My blog performs two functions: looking at a variety of stock investment possibilities, and then actually building a real portfolio and following along with those investments. I do not buy every stock that I review, in fact, I currently own 20 stocks in my "Trading Portfolio". This is a real investment portfolio and I try very hard to update my trading activity on this blog as events happen. However, at the same time I have reviewed literally hundreds of stocks since starting this blog almost two years ago. I also have a Xanga account which acts as a "mirror" site, but offers Xanga readers what I consider a more personalized website.

In order to determine how well the multitude of stock picks turned out, I use the weekend, when I get a chance, to review past stock picks with about a trailing one year period. Last weekend I reviewed stock picks from the week of February 16, 2004. This week, I shall be looking at picks from the week of February 23, 2004. Besides looking at the price performance, I also like to look at the latest quarterly result, which I believe gives us a good idea whether the stock is still a good investment at least from my perspective. If both revenue and earnings are positive, I give the stock a "thumbs-up", otherwise down goes the thumb!

By the way, this analysis, as I have pointed out previously, assumes a buy and hold strategy that I do NOT employ in practice. I practice selling my losing stocks quickly and then selling portions of my gaining stocks slowly at pre-determined sale points. That certainly would affect the performance of any portfolio that I actually owned!

On February 23, 2004, I posted Escalon Medical (ESMC) on Stock Picks at $10.60. ESMC closed on 4/8/05 at $5.22, for a loss of $(5.38) or (50.8)%.

On February 14, 2005, ESMC reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2004, net revenue came in at $6.3 million, compared with $3.8 million the prior year. However, the company reported a net loss of $(422,625) or $(.072)/diluted share compared with net income of $820,961 or $.196/diluted share in the second quarter of 2004.

I posted Mannatech (MTEX) on Stock Picks on February 24, 2004, at a price of $9.98. MTEX closed at $20.29 on 4/8/05, for a gain of $10.31 or 103%.

On March 9, 2005, MTEX announced 4th quarter 2004 results. Net sales for the fourth quarter came in at $84.2 million, a 55.1% increase over the $29.9 million last year. Net income was $4.0 million or $.15/diluted share, a 21.9% increase over the fourth quarter of 2003.

On February 25, 2004, I picked Lipman Electronic Engineering (LPMA) for Stock Picks at a price of $44.98. LPMA had a 2:1 split on 7/2/04, giving us an effective stock pick price of $22.49. LPMA closed at $29.12 on 4/8/05, for a gain of $6.63 or 29.5%.

On January 31, 2005, LPMA reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue grew strongly by 78% to $65.7 million from $36.9 million last year. However, while net income grew to $9.7 million from $9.6 million last year, due to an increased number of shares, this worked out to $.35/share down from $.44/share last year.

On February 27, 2004, I posted ShuffleMaster (SHFL) on Stock Picks at a price of $41.45. SHFL has had two 3:2 splits since (4/04 and 1/05) and thus, the effective stock pick price works out to $18.42. SHFL closed at $28.15 on 4/8/05, for a gain of $9.73 or 52.8%.

On March 3, 2005, SHFL reported 1st quarter 2005 results which were quite good! Revenue increased 63% to $25.4 million and diluted earnings per share increased 55% to $.17/share.

So how did I "do" for picking stock picks for that week in February, 2004? Well, actually quite well for these four selections. I had one big loser (ESMC) and four very strong gainers. Thus, the average percentage gain that week was 33.6%.

Thanks so much for stopping by! I hope that you have a very good week and that you visit here often. I enjoy hearing from readers and if you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just go ahead and leave your comments right here in the blog!

Bob














Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:39 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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