Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
As my regular readers know, I like to pick stocks for possible investment on this blog, using my own perspective and analysis that I document on each of my posts. However, to determine if what I am writing about is actually a successful approach for picking stocks requires a retrospective analysis. Each weekend, I try to look at all of the stock selections from a week about a year earlier. Since I have missed a few of these discussions :(, I am now about 60 weeks out on my reviews. These reviews assume a buy and hold approach to investments. In practice, I do not follow this strategy and do not recommend it; in fact I sell my losing stocks quickly and completely, and my gaining stocks slowly and partially. However, for the sake of simplicity, this approach is useful to at least see what has happened to the stocks discussed on this blog!
On December 8, 2004, I posted Cogent Systems (COGT) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $35.03. COGT closed at $22.88 on February 24, 2006, for a loss of $(12.15) or (34.7)%.
On October 26, 2005, Cogent reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew 64% to $38.4 million, from $23.4 million in the same quarter a year ago. GAAP Net income was $20.1 million or $.21/diluted share down from $20.4 million or $.29/diluted share the prior year. The company explained that the higher figures a year ago were related to a net tax benefit of $11.6 million; however, for this blog, I stick with GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) numbers.
On December 6, 2004, I discussed DaVita (DVA) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice (and also purchased some shares which were later sold in my Trading Account) at $36.42. Davita closed at $59.12 on February 24, 2006, giving this pick a gain of $22.70 or 62.3%.
On February 15, 2006, Davita (DVA) announced 4th quarter 2005 results. Revenue was up almost 100% to $1.13 billion from $583.9 million a year earlier in the same quarter. Earnings increased 13% to $64 million or $.61/share, up from $56.6 million or $.56/share last year. In addition, hitting my so-called "trifecta", the company raised guidance for 2006 calling for income of $630 million to $700 million, up from $600 to $670 million previously estimated.
So how did I do with these two stocks from a week a bit more than a year ago? I had one loser, Cogent, with a loss of (34.7)% and one gainer, DaVita, with a gain of 62.3%. Averaging these two stocks gives me an average gain of 13.8%.
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