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Sunday, 26 February 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of December 6, 2004







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As my regular readers know, I like to pick stocks for possible investment on this blog, using my own perspective and analysis that I document on each of my posts. However, to determine if what I am writing about is actually a successful approach for picking stocks requires a retrospective analysis. Each weekend, I try to look at all of the stock selections from a week about a year earlier. Since I have missed a few of these discussions :(, I am now about 60 weeks out on my reviews. These reviews assume a buy and hold approach to investments. In practice, I do not follow this strategy and do not recommend it; in fact I sell my losing stocks quickly and completely, and my gaining stocks slowly and partially. However, for the sake of simplicity, this approach is useful to at least see what has happened to the stocks discussed on this blog!

On December 8, 2004, I posted Cogent Systems (COGT) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $35.03. COGT closed at $22.88 on February 24, 2006, for a loss of $(12.15) or (34.7)%.

On October 26, 2005, Cogent reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew 64% to $38.4 million, from $23.4 million in the same quarter a year ago. GAAP Net income was $20.1 million or $.21/diluted share down from $20.4 million or $.29/diluted share the prior year. The company explained that the higher figures a year ago were related to a net tax benefit of $11.6 million; however, for this blog, I stick with GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) numbers.

On December 6, 2004, I discussed DaVita (DVA) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice (and also purchased some shares which were later sold in my Trading Account) at $36.42. Davita closed at $59.12 on February 24, 2006, giving this pick a gain of $22.70 or 62.3%.

On February 15, 2006, Davita (DVA) announced 4th quarter 2005 results. Revenue was up almost 100% to $1.13 billion from $583.9 million a year earlier in the same quarter. Earnings increased 13% to $64 million or $.61/share, up from $56.6 million or $.56/share last year. In addition, hitting my so-called "trifecta", the company raised guidance for 2006 calling for income of $630 million to $700 million, up from $600 to $670 million previously estimated.

So how did I do with these two stocks from a week a bit more than a year ago? I had one loser, Cogent, with a loss of (34.7)% and one gainer, DaVita, with a gain of 62.3%. Averaging these two stocks gives me an average gain of 13.8%.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob






Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:01 PM CST | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink

Wednesday, 1 March 2006 - 9:13 PM CST

Name: hap
Home Page: http://hapmoorii.blogspot.com

Sounds like Cogent was a tricky pick. My company dropped Cogent (originally began T-1 service with PSINet who Cogent bought only a couple years ago) over a year ago, and we couldn't be more pleased. PSI made mistakes left and right (billed us for a DS0 for 6 months when we actually had a T-1 among other things over 7 years) and couldn't manage to keep our T-1 up for more than a week at a time in our final year of service.

I'm sure Cogent inherited some of the mess. Aside from that, PSI had gone bankrupt. You can imagine my surprise when I receive the bankruptcy information from PSI and then read on Slashdot about Cable and Wireless depeering them. Even though Cogent got it for a bargain price, it still wasn't a business in good shape. And, unfortunately, what I saw of Cogent as a customer didn't give me the impression that these were the right people to turn the ship around.

If you decide to jump into Cogent again, I'd try to find some customers to talk to about their service first. Jumping away from a broadband provider like Cogent is a pain, but if they can't provide the service, customers will leave just like me.

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