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Monday, 28 May 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of January 2, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!   Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I hope that all of you in the States are having a nice Memorial Day.  I certainly would like to express my words of appreciation for all those young men and women who are serving their nation today and to remember all of those who have died in current and past conflicts.  We need to be proud of them and yet at the same time double our own efforts at improving understanding among all people and trying to make war and conflict a thing of history. 

As part of my blog I have been trying to use the weekend as a time to review past stock picks.  These review assume a buy and hold strategy.  I do this due to the ease of review.  I am rather 'low-tech' on this blog, and it is easy to look at past stock picks and simply see how they have changed in price.  However, in practice, I utilize a very disciplined portfolio investment strategy that requires me to sell stocks both on small losses as well as partial sales on appreciation targets.  The difference in these strategies would certainly affect performance outcome and should be taken into consideration when reviewing the results I shall be discussing.

Last week I reviewed the week of December 26, 2005; going a week ahead, let's take a look at the stock picks discussed on this blog during the week of January 2, 2006.  If you are interested in looking closer at these selections (or others) I would encourage you to use the links on Stock Picks Bob's Advice along the left side of the entries that will get you to all of the past entries on this website by date.

On January 3, 2006, I reviewed Thoratec (THOR) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $22.52.  I do not own any shares of this stock.  THOR closed at $19.24 on May 25, 2007, for a loss of $(3.28) or (14.6)% since posting.

 The following is a "Point & Figure" chart on Thoratec (THOR) from StockChart.som:

 

On May 3, 2007, Thoratec (THOR) reported 1st quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter came in at $57.3 million, up 18% from last year's $48.8 million in the same period.  However, the company came in with a loss of $(930,000) or $(.02)/share.  "Excluding items", the company came in at a profit of $4.3 million or $.08/share, up from $3.2 million or $.06/share last year.   This was good enough to beat expectations of $.07/share on revenue of $54.4 million.

Even though the company improved profits on a non-GAAP basis, I really require financial performance to be evaluated on 'generally accepted accounting principles' and thus, since the company did grow revenue, 

THORATEC (THOR) IS RATED A HOLD

On January 3, 2006, I 'picked' Neoware Systems (NWRE) for Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $25.63.   Neoware (NWRE) closed at $11.68/share on May 25, 2007, for a loss of $(13.95) or (54.4)% since posting.  I do not own any shares of Neoware.

The following is a "Point & Figure" chart on Neoware from StockCharts.com:

On May 1, 2007, Neoware (NWRE) announced 3rd quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended March 31, 2007, revenue came in at $22.1 million, down from $27.8 million in the prior year.  The company came in with a loss of $(.05)/diluted share, down from net income of $.12/share last year.  Due to the decline in revenue and the decline of earnings with a loss,

NEOWARE (NWRE) IS RATED A SELL

On January 4, 2006, I posted HealthExtras (HLEX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $30.51.  HLEX closed at $30.17 on May 25, 2007, for a loss of $(.34)/share or (1.1)% since posting.  I do not own any shares of HLEX.

The following is a "Point & Figure" chart on HealthExtras from StockCharts.com

On May 7, 2007, HealthExtras announced 1st quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended March 31, 2007, revenue totaled $406.4 million, up 70% from first quarter 2006 revenues of $238.7 million.  Net income came in at $9.7 million or $.23/share, up 69% from $5.8 million or $.14/share the prior year same period.

Apparently, analysts were expecting $.23/share in earnings which HLEX met, but revenue had been expected to come in at $415.4 million with HLEX reporting revenue results slightly under this amount. 

But with the strong revenue and earnings growth,

HEALTHEXTRAS (HLEX) IS RATED A BUY

On January 5, 2006, I posted True Religion Apparel (TRLG) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $19.40/share.  TRLG closedat $15.63 on May 25, 2007, for a loss of $(3.77) or (19.4)% since posting.  I do not own any shares of this stock.

The following is a "Point & Figure" chart on TRLG from StockCharts.com


On May 8, 2007, True Religion (TRLG) announced 1st quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended March 31, 2007, net sales grew to $36.1 million, up from $35.6 million in the same quarter last year.  Net income, however, dropped to $4.2 million or $.18/share, from $6.5 million or $.28/diluted share last year.  In light of the sales increase but the decrease in earnings,

TRUE RELIGION (TRLG) IS RATED A HOLD

Finally, on January 6, 2006, I posted AngioDynamics (ANGO) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $26.22.  ANGO closed at $16.15 on May 25, 2007, for a loss of $(10.07)/share or (38.4)%.  I do not currently own any shares of AngioDynamics.

The following is a "Point & Figure" chart on AngioDynamics from StockCharts.com:

On March 27, 2007, AngioDynamics reported 3rd quarter 2007 results.  Net sales increased 35.1% to $26.7 million compared with sales of $19.8 million in the third quarter of 2006.  However, the company reported an operating loss of $10.5 million which included R&D expense of $12.1 million "associated with the RITA Medical acquisition." This worked out to a loww of $(.55)/share compared with a profit of $.14/share the year-earlier.

In light of the strong revenue growth but the switch from profit to loss,

ANGIODYNAMICS (ANGO) IS RATED A HOLD

So how did I do during this week over the New Year's holiday in 2006?  In a word, AWFUL!  I had five "picks" and EVERY SINGLE ONE DECLINED!  How is THAT for TERRIBLE?  The average loss worked out to a loss of (25.6)%!

This review I hope points out a few salient points.  First of all, I am trying very hard to be scrupulously honest on this blog, and in addition am quite capable of picking stocks that decline.  I have been asked multiple times why I hold to my 8% loss limit.  Why not buy more shares if you like the stock I am asked.  It is because of stock picks like this that require me to be disciplined.

"You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a Prince!" (from Kiss Me Frog)


So no, there is nothing magical about what I do.  Sometimes I pick GREAT stocks, companies like Bolt (BTJ) or Precision Castparts (PCP) or Coach (COH).  But there are many times that my process results in stocks that don't work out.  Companies that find their fortunes changing; an event that the individual investor cannot hope to anticipate.  However, we can respond to the market's actions.  We can limit our losses in our own accounts, and we can continue to strive to find the right "frog"!

Have a great weekend everyone...what's left :).  And if you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:10 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Monday, 28 May 2007 3:55 PM CDT

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