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Saturday, 21 February 2004
"Seven Months Ago" A longer term view examining the selections of the week of July 28, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks again for taking the time to stop by! I sure do appreciate when some of you take the time to comment on the BLOG by emailing me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com Helps me know you guys are really out there!

As always, please do your own due diligence on every stock and investment discussed here and discuss them with your investment advisor to find out what they think and whether the investment would be suitable for you prior to taking any actions.

I just finished posting the short-term, 7 week follow-up on this blog...and those numbers quite frankly were fairly mediocre. Let's see if I am doing a bit better longer-term...from 7 months ago, the week of July 28, 2003.

During that week I made nine selections. I will try to review them and see if there is anything new that suggests avoiding the issue or whether things are still on track.

On July 28, 2003, I posted Quality Systems (and also purchased some of these shares both in my stock club and in my trading account) at $30.67. QSII closed on 2/20/03 at $49.30, for a nice gain of $19.36 or 63.1%

Looking for their latest earnings news, QSII announced fiscal 2004 third quarter results on February 2, 2004. Net revenues were $18.2 million, a 26% increase from the $14.4 million last year. Net income was $2.6 million, a 35% increase over the $1.9 million the prior year. Fully diluted earnings per share in the quarter were $.40, a 33% increase over last year's $.30/share. This company appears to be doing just fine!

Coventry Health (CVH) was posted on Bob's Advice on 7/29/03 at a price of $55.77. However, they split 3:2 on 2/2/04, so the split adjusted recommendation was at $37.18. CVH closed 2/20/04 at $41.45, for an effective gain of $4.27 or 11.5%.

CVH reported fourth quarter 2003 earnings on 2/3/04. Revenue increased 29% to $1.22 billion from $946 million the prior year. They also reported net income of $69.7 million or $.76/share for the period vs $40.4 million, or $.45/share the prior year. These are very nice results! The stock was under some pressure after the announcement as forecasts, which were in line with expectations, still weren't quite as optimistic as some of its competitors. See Yahoo article for more details on this.

Also on July 29, 2004, I posted CYH on the BLOG at a price of $19.79. CYH closed on 2/20/04 at $26.99 for a gain of $7.20 or 36.4%.

Looking for the latest earnings report, I found the results of the third quarter that were announced on 10/23/03. The story was posted on the CHS website: Net operating revenues were $723 million, a 30.8% increase over the $552.8 million reported last year. Net income increased 57.2% to $31.7 million or $.31/diluted share compared to $20.2 million or $.21/diluted share. The company appears to have its story intact.

On July 30, 2003, I posted CRL on Bob's Advice at $35.60. Charles River Laboratories closed on 2/20/04 at $43.15 for a gain of $7.55 or 21.2%.

On 2/10/04, CRL posted fourth quarter 2003 results. Net sales increased 9.2% to $156.0 million from $142.9 million the prior year. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2003 increased 17.9% to $20.6 million or $.42/diluted share up from $17.5 million or $.36/diluted share the prior year. This company is still doing just fine imho.

Guitar Center (GTRC) was posted on Bob's Advice on 7/30/03 at $33.26. GTRC closed on 2/20/04 at $34.99, for a gain of $1.73 or 5.2%.

Looking for the latest quarterly report, Yahoo posted GTRC's 4th quarter results on 1/29/04. Sales grew to $395.8 million vs $334.8 million the prior year. Net income grew 47% to $19.7 million or $.78/diluted share from $13.4 million, or $.57/diluted share the prior year. This company appears to be on track!

On July 31, 2003, I posted Chico's FAS on the blog at a price of $27.22. CHS has done quite well since that post (too bad I don't own any shares)...and closed on 2/20/04 at $42.27 for a gain of $15.05 or 55.3%.

CHS reported a great third quarter 2003 results on 12/2/03. They earned $26.8 million or $.30/share on $210.57 million in sales compared to year earlier sales of $137.26 million with earnings of $15.5 million or $.18/share the prior year. This company is doing GREAT!

On July 31, 2003, I posted ManTech on Bob's Advice at a price of $24.86. MANT closed on 2/20/04 at $21.06, for a loss of $(3.80) or (15.3)%. (You KNOW I don't bat even close to 1.000!)

MANT reported 3rd quarter earnings results on 10/29/03. Revenue for the 3rd quarter 2003 grew 39% to $181.6 million, operating income increased 48% to $16.2 million, and fully diluted EPS grew 21% to $.29. At least for the latest quarter results, MANT appears to be on track.

United Online (UNTD) was posted on this blog on 8/1/03 at $33.64. This pick has performed MISERABLY and closed 2/20/04 at $16.75 for a loss of $(16.89) or (50.2)%.

On February 4, 2004, UNTD reported their 4th quarter 2003 results. Total revenues were $96.9 million, an increase of 47% vs. $65.8 million the prior year. Adjusted net income for the quarter, excluding a one-time tax benefit, was $14.5 million, or $.21/share, a 65% increase from last year's $8.8 million or $.13/share. The company certainly appears to be doing just fine...but the stock price, alas, that is a DIFFERENT story!

Hang in there, just ONE more stock to report!

Finally, Alliance Data Systems (ADS) was posted on this BLOG on August 1, 2003 at a price of $28.45. ADS closed on 2/20/04 at $29.25, for a gain of $.80 or 2.8%.

Looking for the latest earnings on ADS, they posted 4th quarter 2003 results on 1/28/04. Revenue increased 27% to $298.3 million vs. $235.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2002. Net income increased 96% to $19.8 million for the quarter in 2003, or $.24/diluted share, vs $10.1 million or $.13/diluted share in 2002. These are great results in my humble opinion.

In summary, (FINALLY!), the nine stocks had seven that gained and two that lost money after being selected for an average gain of 14.4%. Overall, not too shabby and much better than our most recent seven week selection review. (see prior post.)

Thanks again for stopping by and bearing with me as I reviewed some of my past picks. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement...please email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Happy Saturday everyone!

Bob


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