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Saturday, 4 August 2007
Market Comment: Picking up the Pieces after Last Week's Action!

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, soplease remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I would be negligent if I didn't acknowledge the fast and sharp correction in virtually all of my holdings this past week.  I am not immune to market action. 

But as of this date, during this particular correction, none of my stocks have been sold.  But four of the twenty are now at the cusp of being sold.

Baldor Electric (BEZ) is carrying a (7.54)% loss since my purchase of shares, Hologic (HOLX) is at a (6.77)% loss, National Oilwell (NOV) is a (7.02)% loss, and VCA Antech (WOOF) is showing a (6.21)% loss.  These stocks are close to my (8)% loss limit.  I have set that up as a level that I sell stocks after an initial purchase.

In addition, after a single sale at a gain, I implement sales of remaining shares if they drop to break-even.  Also, if I have sold shares more than once at different appreciation targets, such as a holding like ResMed (RMD) which I have sold twice at 30% and 60% levels, I allow that stock to decline to 1/2 of its highest appreciation-sale level before selling shares.  In other words, since ResMed (RMD) has been sold at a 60% target, if the stock shoud decline back to a 30% appreciation level I plan on selling all remaining shares.   (ResMed closed Friday at a 47.82% appreciation level, so this particular stock is not currently near a sale point).

Also, after any sale on a decline, I consider this a sale on "bad news".  This difference is critical as I do not have "permission" to re-invest those proceeds in another position.  Instead, those proceeds must be used to either pay down my margin (which is still significant) or simply add to a cash position.  The only exception is if I have shrunk the size of my portfolio down to a minimum level of equity exposure which for me is 5 positions.  Recall that 1/2 of my maximum of 20 positions (where I am at currently) is called "neutral" or 10 positions.  The minimum is 1/2 of that or 5 positions.  Since my 'strategy' requires me to respond to my own portfolio, I cannot completely get into cash as I shall not have a signal to be buying new positions!  Thus, at my minimum, if I receive a 'sell signal' then I would indeed plan on selling that stock, but I shall also plan on replacing that stock with a new position selected through the same techniques I use to pick stocks on "good news".

Wish me luck!

Remember that I am truly an amateur, so do consult with professional investment advisers to see even if this particular approach is appropriate for you.

One important note.  Throughout this discussion you will see that I am not predicting the market action.  I shall reserve the right to sell EVERYTHING if I feel there is something terribly fundamentally wrong with the market.  Just as I reserve the right to over-ride my own trading rules and do something arbitrary.  However, I haven't been doing this very often at all.  And the very rare times that I have done so, I have generally been wrong.

I do believe in the long-term financial prospects of stock markets, especially the stock market in the United States.  That is the one I am most familiar with.  And thus, my goal is not to be shaken-out of investments by corrections, but not to put my head in the sand either.  I shall continue to work at responding to my own portfolio's signals and see if this shall continue to be profitable for me.

Have a great week trading everyone!

Bob 

 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:36 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 5 August 2007 9:18 AM CDT

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