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Monday, 22 December 2003
"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of June 9, 2003
Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by. I am not sure WHO all of you are who stop by but we are seeing lots more page views around these parts. Would love to hear from you or have you post comments right on this Blog. I need someone to break the ice! Anyway, if you are looking for investment ideas, you are welcome, but please remember to check with your own investment advisor to see if any of the ideas posted right here are suitable for you.

It has been a bit over six months since the week of June 9, 2003, and it is nice to look back and see if any of the posts here have done well...and what their average performance was over this time period. During the week of June 9, 2003, I posted nine stock selections. Let's take a look at how they have performed! I do not own any of these stocks at this time...and only indirectly own a few shares of OSK in my stock club!

The first stock on the list is Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) which was listed here at $19.58. The last trade today, 12/22/03, was for $30.74. This was a great performance with a gain of $11.16 during this time or 57%. On October 23, 2003, LEND reported their 3rd quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE, revenues were $116.2 million for the quarter an increase of 89%, Net Income was $29.4 million or $1.40/share, an increase of 161% over net income of $11.3 million reported in 2002. This stock is still on track!

Next, I selected Caremark Rx (CMX) at $24.66 on 6/10/03. CMX closed today, 12/22/03, at $25.25 for a gain of $.59/share. Not as exciting as LEND, this stock had a gain of 2.4%. Latest earnings were released on October 28, 2003, as reported by Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE. Revenues during the quarter totaled $2.3 billion, an increase of 32% over the same period in 2002. Diluted earnings/share increased 45% to $.29 from
$.20/share last year. This stock appears to be on track as well.

Also on June 10, 2003, I picked Packeteer (PKTR) at $15.10. PKTR closed today, 12/22/03, at $17.25. This represents a gain of $2.15/share or 14.2%. On October 16, 2003, PKTR announced their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. As reported on Yahoo.com and picked up from PRNewswire-FirstCall, revenues for the third quarter were $18.4 million, an increase of 5% from the $17.5 million in the quarter last year. Net income was $3.0 million or $.09/share compared to $2.6 million or $.08/share last year. The stock still represents a growing company but the rate of growth in revenues and earnings concerns me. I don't think I would be an active buyer of this stock with that earnings report.

Also on 6/10/03, I selected Pediatrix (PDX) at $38.80. PDX closed today, 12/22/03, at $54.31. This is a gain of $15.51 or 40%. On November 5, 2003, PDX reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2003. Quarterly revenue was $145.5 million, an increase of 19%. Net income was $23.5 million, an increase of 21% from the prior year. On a per share basis Pediatrix earned $.97 for the three months compared to $.73/share for the same period last year. These are still great results and the stock is right on track.

June 11, 2003, found me listing WebEx Communications (WEBX) at $14.41. WEBX closed today, 12/22/03, at $19.89, for a gain of $5.48 or 38%. On October 16, 2003, as reported on Yahoo.com from a story by PRNewswire-FirstCall, WEBX reported their third quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2003. Revenues for the quarter were $48.8 million a 33% increase from the prior year and a SEQUENTIAL 9% increase (from the prior quarter). Net income was $11.2 million or $.25/diluted share vs $5.0 million or $.12/diluted share for 2002. These are great results and the stock still looks attractive to me.

Our one home builder for the week was Lennar (LEN) which was selected on June 11, 2003, at $75.45. LEN closed today, 12/22/03, at $98.10, for a gain of $22.65 or 30%. On 12/15/03, according to Yahoo.com from a story from Dow Jones Business News, LEN reported their 4th quarter results for the period ended November 30, 2003. Revenue for the quarter was $2.94 billion 13% from the prior year. Net income was $283.2 million or $3.38/share compared to $225 million, or $2.87/share last year. This stock is on track, and in fact, has recently announced plans for a 2:1 stock split.

Charles River Associates was selected on 6/12/03 at $27.95. CRAI closed today, 12/22/03, at $30.53. This represents a gain of $2.58 or 9.2% during this period. Charles River announced their third quarter results for the period ended September 5, 2003, on October 2, 2003. This was picked up by Yahoo.com from BUSINESS WIRE. Revenues for third fiscal quarter increased 17.6% to $49.4 milion vs. $42.0 million last year during this period. Net Income for the third fiscal quarter increased 31.5% to $3.4 million or $.34 /share vs $2.6 million or $.28/share last year. This company appears to be doing just fine!

Oshkosh Truck (OSK) was picked on this site on 6/12/03 at $62.50/share. OSK split 2:1 on 8/14/03. Thus, our effective split-adjusted cost was $31.25/share for our selection. OSK closed today, 12/22/03, at $50.51/share for a gain of $19.25/share or 61.6%. On October 28, 2003, as reported on Yahoo.com, from BUSINESS WIRE, OSK reported results for their fourth quarter ended September 30, 2003. Sales for the quarter increased 6.5% to $508.1 million and operating income increased 38.7% to $43.6 million, compared to $31.4 million last year. Net income was up 50.8% to $26.0 million or $.74/share compared to $17.2 million or $.50/share last year. This is really a very nice result and explains our continued success with this selection!

Our final selection for the week was Lannett Corp (LCI) at $21.53 on 6/13/03. LCI closed today at $17.00 for a loss of ($4.53) or (21%). On October 29, 2003, as reported by Yahoo.com from a story run on PRNewswire-FirstCall, Lannett reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. Net sales increased 45% to $13.2 million from $9.1 million the prior year. Net income increased 34% to $3.43 million from $2.55 million in 2002. On a per share basis, this was $.17/share vs $.13/share last year. Even though this stock has handed us a LOSS, the stock deserves continued inspection as the numbers just reported do appear imho quite good.

Looking at the nine stocks, we can appreciate what a FABULOUS performance they have had. (Too bad I don't own any!). The average performance for these nine issues (eight with a gain and only one with a loss) is a gain of 25.7%. Not too shabby!

Thanks again for stopping by! Remember to discuss these stocks with YOUR financial advisor, and be sure to drop me a line if you have any questions, comments, or what I love best, words of encouragement! You can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:21 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Monday, 22 December 2003 5:23 PM CST

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