January 9, 2004 American Medical Systems (AMMD)
Hello Friends! Here is an interesting stock that I have not checked before and that I do not own any shares....American Medical Systems (AMMD). As always, please check with your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on anything on this website!

According to money.cnn.com American Medical Systems (AMMD) "...is a manufacturer & marketer of medical devices used in the areas of incontinence, erectile dysfunction and prostate disease." AMMD is having a nice day in the market, trading as I write at $25.96 up $3.60 or 16.10% on the day.

Yesterday, after the close of the market, AMMD announced latest quarter financial results estimates for the fourth quarter, 2003. Preliminary results suggested sales in the fourth quarter 2003 were $47 million in 2003 vs $37.8 million in 2002, a 24% increase. (adjusting for currency rate changes decreased the result but still they reported a 21% increase). This was certainly on the high end of prior estimates and the stock responded today in a positive fashion.

On October 22, 2003, AMMD reported results for their fiscal 3rd quarter 2003. This was reported on Yahoo.com from a BUSINESS WIRE story. Sales were $39.6 million in the quarter, a 21% increase over last year's $32.8 million (or 19% adjusted for currency rate changes). Net income was $6.9 million, or $.20/share, up 28% from $5.4 millioin or $.16/share last year. (Adjusting for a tax benefit, eps would have been only $.17/share in 2003...only a penny or 6% increase).

Looking at Morningstar.com "5-yr restated" financials, we find that revenue has grown steadily from $77.7 million in 1998, $81.4 million in 1999, $100.3 million in 2000, $117.9 million in 2001, $141.6 million in 2002, and $146.3 million in the trailing twelve months.

Per Morningstar, earnings have increased from $.20 in 2001 to $.73 in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has also been improving recently from $6 million in 2000, $23 million in 2001, $27 million in 2002 and $28 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet also looks nice with $42.8 million in cash and $49.1 million in other current assets. The cash alone is almost enough to pay for the combined current liabilities of $29.7 million and the $17.1 million in long-term liabilities.

Checking "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that the market cap is a small cap $855.52 milllion with a trailing p/e of 32.66. The forward p/e, based on estimates for the next 12 months is only 23.54 with a PEG at 1.51, and price/sales at 4.65.

Yahoo reports 33.07 million shares outstanding with 22.0 million of them that float. There are 1.02 million shares out short representing a significant 4.66% of the float and a large 6.101 trading days as of 12/8/03. No dividend is paid and no stock split is reported on Yahoo.

Overall, I like this stock quite a bit. I think the medical equipment/appliance field is a dynamic growth area in this ever-aging population...that is suffering increasing issues of incontinence in the aging female population and impotence in the aging male population. Gosh is this ever a depressing note! The value isn't cheap but then it isn't expensive either and the continued reported revenue growth makes this ever more attractive. It is on my buy list and if I ever get a handle on that margin, I may slip a position into my account!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

January 8, 2004 Resources Connection (RECN)
Hello Friends! Found this one today on the lists. By the way, take a look at the same store sales numbers on Sharper Image....one of our earlier posts. As always, please remember to check with your financial advisors before acting on any information on this website!

Resources connection (RECN), as described on money.cnn.com is "a professional services firm that provides experienced accounting and finance, human capital management and information technology professionals on a project-by-project basis." RECN, as I write, is trading at $34.50, up $3.76 or 12.23% on earnings news.

Yesterday, after the close of trading, RECN reported their second quarter 2004 results on Yahoo.com from a story run on PRNewswire-FirstCall. During the quarter, total revenue increased 47% to $74.0 million compared to $50.2 million last year. (Removing the contribution from acquisitions of Netherlands and Australian businesses, the revenue still grew a healthy 21% year over year.) Net income for the quarter was $4.4 million or $.19/diluted share vs $.15/diluted share last year in the same quarter ended November 30, 2002.

Looking at RECN on the
"5-yr restated" financials on Morningstar we find that revenue has grown from $15.4 millin in 1999, $127.5 million in 2000, $191.5 million in 2001, dipped to $181.7 million in 2002, rebounded to $202 million in 2003, and has come in at $218 million in the trailing twelve months.

Earnings/share have thus far shown little growth at $.58/share in 2002 and $.59/share in trailing twelve months. However, with the current quarter, the company is running at least at a $.76/share rate for 2004. Free cash flow has been positive at $19 million in 2001, and dipping slightly to $13 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet on Morningstar.com is also very nice with $30.9 million in cash, more than enough to cover both the current liabilities of $20.7 million and the long-term liabilities of $1.5 million combined. In addition, they have $38.8 million in other current assets.

Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com for RECN, we find the Market cap at $779.92 million. The trailing p/e is a bit pricey at 54.83, with forward p/e of 31.69 (estimates for fye 31-May-05). PEG is moderate at 1.44, with price/sales at 3.19.

There are 22.61 million shares outstanding and 20.20 million that float. 1.07 million shares are out short which is quite a few shares as this is 5.30% of the float, or more interesting, 10.398 trading days of volume. No dividend is paid and no stock dividend has been reported on Yahoo.com.

Resources connection is actually a "recycled" company formed from Deloitte in North America. Per Yahoo, "its legacy in Europe is from Ernst & Young and in Asia Pacific from Deloitte". If you are interested in an accounting/consulting business that is growing nicely this may be for you. I like their numbers but not the value elements as the p/e is actually a bit steep...but that is just my take on the matter.

Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at Bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

January 7, 2004 UniFirst (UNF)
Hello Friends! Thanks as always for stopping by my website. I enjoy commenting on stocks...has anybody noticed....a few of you ask WHY I do this....and I don't have a real good answer except that I enjoy writing and commenting on the market. I do not own any shares of this company but it is a very steady grower. As always, please discuss this and any investment idea with your investment advisor to determine whether it is appropriate for you!

Unifirst (UNF) had a nice day in the market today closing at $27.11 up $1.75 or 6.90% on the day. According to money.cnn.com UNF "...is a provider of workplace uniforms and protective clothing. UNF rents, manufactures and sells a wide range of uniforms and protective clothing, including shirts, pants, jackets, coveralls, jumpsuits, lab coats, smocks and aprons."

Looking at the fiscal 2003 fourth quarter results as reported on Yahoo.com on November 4, 2003 from a BUSINESS WIRE story, we find that revenues for the quarter grew 5.1% to $147.6 million from $140.5 million the prior year. Net income for the quarter was $7.2 million or $.38/basic share vs last year's $6.5 million or $.34/basic share the prior year. (I am NOT sure what is meant in the story by "basic share").

Looking at the morningstar.com "5-yr restated" financials we can find that revenue has increased consistently but not dramatically each year from $448.1 million in 1998 to $589.8 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share have been less consistent with $1.62 in 1998 droppping to $1.01 in 2000 and then improving consistently from there to $1.37/share in the trailing twelve months. Since 1998, the dividend has increased from $.12/share to $.15/share in the trailing twelve months as well.

Free cash flow has been positive if not consistent increasing from $11 million in 2000 to the current $27 million in the trailing twelve months per Morningstar.

Assets and liabilities are fairly well-balanced with $7.4 million in cash reported and $153.5 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover the current liabilities of $92.1 million, but not quite enough to pay off (an unnecessary plus imho), the long-term liabilities of $96.0 million.

Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com for UNF we find that the market cap is $520.13 million with a nice trailing p/e of 17.80 with a forward p/e (fye 30-Aug-05) of 14.41. The PEG isn't too bad at 1.25 and the price/sales is also nice at 0.82. Certainly valuations aren't bad for this company...but it isn't growing THAT fast either!

There are 19.19 million shares reported on Yahoo with 16.10 million of them that float. Only 22,000 shares are out short as of 12/8/03...representing 0.14% of the float or 0.688 trading days of volume.

The stock pays $.15/share dividend which amounts to a yield of 0.59%. According to Yahoo, it has been about 10 years since the last stock split which was a 2:1 in January, 1994.

You know what? I kind of like this stock. It has a habit of cranking out revenue/earnings growth almost like a SYSCO...in fact in the uniform distribution business...it really is in almost a similar niche...I know you cannot EAT uniforms...but still...bear with me. The value is nice, it pays a dividend, it has a nice growing free cash flow...well it would be even nicer if it was growing faster...but still looks attractive to me.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

January 7, 2004 Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. As you might have read from the prior note, I sold my KRON and ELAB today in the trading account. Back down to 23 positions. We have all year (!) to get back to 25. When stocks are way ahead and start dropping on what sounds to be some fundamental issue, or should I say an issue affecting fundamentals, maybe it is prudent to sell out and move on. We shall see. As always, please consult with your own investment advisor before making any decisions based on information on this website.

According to money.cnn.com , Kennetch Cole Productions (KCP) "...designs, sources and markets a broad range of footwear, handbags and accessories under its Kenneth Cole New York, Kenneth Cole Reaction and Unlisted brand names." KCP is having a nice day today, trading as I write at $31.95, up $1.52 or 5.00%.

Looking at third quarter results ,which were reported on October 29, 2003 on Yahoo.com from a PRNewswire-FirstCall story, net revenue was $132.1 million this year, up from $123.5 million last year in the same quarter. Fully diluted earnings/share were $.49/share this year vs $.33/share last year. (However, last year's results were $.44/share before an $.11/share charge for 'non-recurring items'.)

Looking at Morningstar.com 5-yr restated financials, we find that revenue has grown somewhat irregularly from $228 million in 1998 to $433.0 million in 2002.

During the same period, earnings/share have grown from $.80/share to $1.35 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has been positive improving from $27 million in 2000 to $33 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet on Morningstar is also quite clean with $102.4 million in cash reported, more than enough to pay off all of the current liabilities of $55.0 million and the long-term liabilities of $26.7 million combined. In addition, KCP has $87.8 million in other current assets.

Looking at key statistics on Yahoo.com, we find that KCP has a market cap of $632.35 million, a trailing p/e of 21.12 which isn't bad, a forward p/e based on estimates from next twelve months of 17.00, a PEG of 1.14 and price/sales of 1.32.

KCP has 19.80 million shares outstanding with only 5.20 million of them that float. By the way, I do not own any shares either directly or indirectly in this company. There are 341,000 shares out short representing 6.56% of the float or 3.157 average trading days of volume. KCP does pay a small dividend of $.36/share yielding 1.18%. The last stock split reported on Yahoo was a 3:2 in March, 2000.

Overall, I like this stock just fine. I would prever to see a more linear growth in earnings and revenue, but KCP is growing, is profitable, is loaded with cash, pays a dividend, has a PEG just over 1.0 and a price/sales just over 1.0...so looks pretty nice to me!

Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com...

Bob

"Trading Transparency" ELAB, KRON
Two of my stocks in my trading portfolio have been trading poorly. KRON warned that current quarter would come in at low end of expectations due to failure to close some contracts and ELAB has been held up with one of its generic drugs with a lawsuit. With my margin levels high, and my tolerance for problem stocks low, I sold both of these positions this morning. We actually still have nice gains on both of these...but now we are back to 23 positions...so have two more slots to fill in my trading portfolio. The 120 share position was sold at $46.52 and the 120 share position of KRON was sold at $38.10.

ELAB was purchased at $29.39 on 5/30/03 and has resulted in a 59.80% gain. KRON was acquired on 4/8/03 with a basis of $27.49 so the current sale netted a 38.87% gain. Not too shabby!

Thanks for stopping by!

Bob

January 6, 2004 Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I work away at this and we see some interesting stock winners and quite frankly, a few that 'fall out of bed' and aren't winners for us! Remember to always to check with your financial advisor before acting on any information on this website as investments discussed may or may not be suitable for you.

Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR) hit the list today. This is another one of those dollar stocks that seem to be popping up everywhere! DLTR as I write is trading at $31.85 up $2.26 or 7.64%. That's more than a dollar! What appears to be driving this stock up this morning is an upgrade from Robert W. Baird, as reported on Yahoo.com, from Neutral to "outperform".

On November 25, 2003, DLTR reported their fiscal third quarter earnings as reported on Yahoo.com from a story on BUSINESS WIRE. Earnings/share were $.31 vs. $.27 in the quarter last year. Net sales for the quarter were $665 million vs $556 million last year. Comparable store sales were up 3.2% for the first nine months...but frankly I did not see the same store sales for the quarter listed in the earnings report....Might be there but didn't see it on my first perusal!

Looking at Morningstar.com report on DLTR we find that revenue has grown nicely from $1.1 billion in 1998, $1.4 billion in 1999, $1.7 billion in 2000, $2.0 billion in 2001, $2.5 billion in 2003 (where is the result for 2002???), and $2.8 billion in the trailing twelve months. Honestly, the 2002 results are not present on Morningstar.com so either they changed their reporting year or we have a typo!

Checking key statistics on Yahoo.com we find that DLTR has a market cap of $3.68 Billion. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 20.53, and forward p/e (fye 1-Feb-05) is nice also at 16.26. I like the PEG at 0.91 and price/sales isn't bad at 1.18.

Yahoo.com reports 115.10 million shares outstanding with 108.80 million that float. There are 3.74 million shares out short representing 3.44% of the float or 1.749 trading days of volume. No dividend is paid and the last stock split reported on Yahoo.com is a 3:2 split on June 20, 2000.

Overall, this is an interesting stock that is growing nicely and presents a compelling valuation picture with low p/e and nice PEG ratio. I personally don't know how much growth these dollar stores can sustain...but "ours is not reason why"...would be a good quote. We need to pick stocks based on financial performance and not put our own limited views of stock niches too heavily into our investing decisions imho.

Good luck in 2004. Thanks again for stopping by. I am aware of the misstep of KRON in my trading account and am watching that stock closely. Currently we have about a 40% gain even with the current correction and we will need to monitor the continuing SAGA of that company!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

Speaking of NO self-control, I went ahead and bought 200 shares of CSC (Computer Sciences Corporation) a few minutes ago at $45.75/share to get me back to 25 positions. Now will be the real test to STAY at 25!...I reviewed CSC elsewhere in this blog and you may want to reread the post. I think this is a GREAT stock with relatively nice value and is worth a position not only in the blog but in my trading portfolio!

Thanks for stopping by!

Regards to all of my friends.

Bob

January 5, 2004 Applied Films (AFCO)
Hello Friends! The so called 'Santa Claus Rally' is continuing today with both the Dow and the NASDAQ rallying nicely...at least as I write...hopefully forboding a good year for all of us investors. As always, please consult with your investment advisors before acting on any recommendations on this website!

I came across an interesting stock today....and almost bought some to bring us back to 25 positions...and then recalled my Resolutions for 2004...so will wait before buying anything until we peel off some shares of gainers and reduce our margin. Applied Films Corp. (AFCO) is having a great day today trading at $37.46 up $4.32 on the day as I write or 13.04%. According to money.cnn.com Applied Films "...designs, develops and supplies thin-film coated glass for use in liquid crystal displays and sells thin-film coating equipment to manufacturers."

On October 22, 2003, AFCO reported their first quarter 2004 earnings report. Net revenues were $47.7 million for the quarter compared with $25.1 million in the first quarter of 2003, a 90% increase. There ARE a lot of 'footnotes' but GAAP income/diluted share was $.19/share vs a loss of $(0.07)/share last year. You may want to review the whole story for yourself on this one as it is a bit confusing for an amateur like myself and I generally do not like to see qualifications on earnings results.

Morningstar.com shows a nice sequential growth picture with revenues increasing from $4.6 million in 1999, $7.1 million in 2000, $96.3 million in 2001, $137.1 million in 2002 and $154.2 million in 2003.

Earnings/share have been negative through 2002 with earnings turning positive at $.18/share in the last twelve months.

Also, on a less favorable note, free cash flow has been negative in 2002 and 2003 with $(3) million reported in 2002 and $(4) million reported in 2003.

Balance sheet is solid with $74.4 million in cash and $78.1 million in other current assets reported vs. $63.9 million in current liabilities and $13.7 million in long-term liabilities.

Looking at "key statistics" on Yahoo.com, we find that the Market cap is a small $546.32 million with a trailing p/e of 92.92, a forward p/e of 29.33, a PEG ratio of 1.99 and price/sales of 2.78. Nothing too cheap here.

There are 14.70 million shares outstanding with 13.10 million of them that float. Currently, there are 771,000 shares out short representing only 5.88% of the float or 6.372 trading days of volume. I suspect some of those shares are scrambling to cover today! No dividend is paid, and no stock split is reported on Yahoo.

This is an interesting, fast-growing stock in an interesting area of flat-screen display technology. However, the p/e is a bit rich for me (the stock is JUST turning profitable...and at that with a bit of accounting maneuvering)...the company is cash flow negative which is also a negative for me. The stock deserves to be on our list as it is growing quickly and turning profitable...but I am not personally in a hurry to pick up shares!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

2004 Resolutions
Thanks for stopping by! If you read my posts, you will see that I have lots of rules and sometimes don't exactly follow them....so here's a shot at some New Year's Resolutions:

1) Maximum of 25 positions in trading account (currently at 24)

2) Remember #1!

3) Work HARD at getting down that margin balance. I have grown my trading account quickly using aggressive margin levels. We will now be shaving off profits to reduce the margin level.

4) When adding new positions, be sure we have shaved off stock positions so that margin level does not expand.

5) Never let losses exceed 8% (if possible...sometimes they gap below or drop quicker than I pull the plug).

6) Avoid peeling off stocks before goals reached. Currently goals are 30%, 60%, 90%, 120%, then by 60% increments...180%, 240%,300%, 360%...after that we may consider 90% increments. When stocks hit these targets, we sell approximately 25% of the holdings. Initially, after the first four sell points...we should have taken back our principle.

7) Have a good time!

Thanks for stopping by. Please be sure to visit here often and feel free to post comments, questions, right on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob

"Six Months Ago" A longer term view from the week of June 23, 2003
Hello Friends! It is Sunday and we are facing a new week and a new year! In fact, I am going to try to spice up my posts with some actual links to the articles I refer to. I am TOTALLY a newbie with HTML, so bear with me, PLEASE :).

During the week of June 23, 2003, I made a selection of Factual Data Corp. at $19.18 on 6/23/03, and posted Fresh Del Monte Produce at $26.14 on 6/23/03, picked Biosite at $48.15 on 6/25/03, and Digital Insight (DGIN) on 6/25/03 at $17.96, and BankRate (RATE) on 6/25/03 at $10.40. On 6/26/03, I posted Biovail (BVF) at $49.30, and finally I posted Online Resources (ORCC) at $6.17 on 6/27/03.

FDCC was acquired by Kroll so we can no longer follow. FDP closed at $23.80 on 1/2/04. This was a loss of $(2.34) or (9)% during this period. On October 23, 2003, FDP reported their third quarter earnings on Yahoo.com. EPS were $.60/share vs $.57/share in 2002. Net sales rose to $563.7 million from $498.5 million last year. The company appears to be on track.

Biosite took a tumble during the past six months and closed 1/2/04 at $29.07. This is a drop of $(19.08) or (40)%. On October 22, 2003, BSTE reported their third quarter 2003 results which showed that total revenue grew 48% and diluted earnings per share were up 60%. In spite of this price setback the underlying company appears to be doing fine.

Digital Insight closed 1/2/04 at $25.10. This stock has been a star among our other disappointments with a gain of $7.14 or 40% during this period. On October 23, 2003, DGIN reported their third quarter results on Yahoo. Revenues were up 16% to $39.4 million from $33.9 million, and eps was at $.14/diluted share vs $.05/share last year. These were very nice results!

BankRate closed 1/2/04 at $12.43 for a gain of $2.03 or 19.5%. RATE reported their third quarter results on October 28, 2003. Revenue for the quarter was up 31% to $9.5 million from $7.2 million last year. On a diluted basis, eps was $.16/share in 2003 vs $.11/share last year. This company is doing fine but certainly is an interest-rate sensitive industry in my opinion.

Biovail (BVF) has been our other disappointment, closing at $22.00/share on 1/2/04. This represents a loss of $(27.30) or (55)% during the last 6 months. Biovail reported their third quarter results on 10/30/03 at revenue was up 3% from 2002, however eps was $.22/share vs $.47/share last year. However a recent article on Forbes highlighted the uncertainty on BVF which along with the marginal earnings results, the SEC probe, make this a very questionable prospect going forward.

Finally Online Resources (ORCC) closed 1/2/04 at $6.59 for a gain of $.42 or 6.8%. On October 21, 2003, ORCC released their third quarter results with revenue up 14%, and eps at $.02/share up from $.01/share. This stock appears to be on track.

In conclusion, this was a rocky week for me for stock picks. We have had lots of GREAT stories on this website, but I try to report the ACTUAL results, and these were mediocre. The average performance for all of these (minus the FDCC which was acquired) was a loss of (6.28)% for the six month period.

In actual practice, it is essential to stop losses as close to 8% as possible, to allow the winners to compensate and grow. However, in our review, we look at stocks as if we would hold all of them through the period without any sales!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them here on the site or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

(I hope all of these links WORK!)

Bob