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Saturday, 7 October 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 6, 2005

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice.   As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.  I also always look forward to any of your comments, suggestions, or questions, and you can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you are so motivated!

One of my weekend tasks for the blog is to do a retrospective analysis of past stock selections.  I have been doing this a week at a time, assuming that an equal dollar amount might have been purchased in each of the stocks discussed on the blog that particular week and that I employed a "buy and hold" strategy on these purchases.  In reality, I suggest and employ a disciplined portfolio management system that involves selling losing stocks quickly and completely, and selling gaining stocks slowly and partially.  For the sake of this review, I assume that stocks were purchased and still held at this time. 

On June 7, 2005, I posted Harman International (HAR) on Stock Picks when it was trading at $94.77.  HAR closed at $86.32 on October 6, 2006, for a loss of $(8.45) or (8.9)% since posting.

On  August 15, 2006, Harman reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  Revenue for the quarter came in at $859.1 million, up 6% from last year's $808 million. Analysts, according to Thomson Financial, had expected revenue of $873.4 million.  The company earned $64.8 million or $.96/share, down from last year's $70.2 million or $1.01/share.  After removing "restructuring charges and senior debt buybacks", the company earned $1.09/share, ahead of expected $1.07/share excluding charges.  In that department, the company exceeded expectations.  However, looking ahead, the company forecast $4.35/share in 2007, which is lower than the analysts' $4.46/share expected.  All-in-all, a bit of a disappointing report.

On June 8, 2005, I posted Balchem (BCP) on Stock Picks at a price of $29.50/share.  On January 23, 2006, Balchem had a 3:2 stock split, making my effective stock pick price actually $19.67.  BCP closed at $19.80 on October 6, 2006, for a gain of $.13 or .7% since posting.

On August 1, 2006, BCP announced 2nd quarter 2006 results.  For the three months ended June 30, 2006, net sales increased 28.8% to $25.1 million from $19.5 million in the same quarter last year. Net earnings increased 11.9% to $3.06 million, from $2.73 million in the same quarter last year.  On a per diluted share basis, net earnings increased 8.7% to $.25/share, up from $.23/share.

Finally, on June 20, 2005, I posted Boston Beer (SAM) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $23.08.  Boston Beer closed at $33.24 on October 6, 2006, for a gain of $10.16 or 44% since posting.

On August 8, 2006, Boston Beer announced 2nd quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended July 1, 2006, revenue climbed 28% to $87.6 million from $68.5 million last year.  Profit came in at $8 million or $.56/share, up 60% from $.35/share last year.  This, according to Thomson Financial, exceeded analysts' expectations of $.38/share. The company also raised guidance for 2006 full year to $1.16 to $1.31, (excluding stock option expenses of $.06 to $.11), this was up from prior guidance between $1.10 to $1.18/share.  Thus, this was a great earnings report, with strongly improving revenue and earnings, and also exceeding expectations and raising guidance!

So how did I do with these three stocks?  Well, I had one small loss, one break-even, and one strong gain for an average performance of a gain of 11.9% for this week a bit over a year ago!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  I cannot promise to answer every email I receive, but I read all of them and share many of the comments here and on my podcast.  Speaking of which, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site, where I also discuss many of these same stocks in an audio show.

Bob 

 

 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:15 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 7 October 2006 10:16 PM CDT

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