Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. I also always look forward to any of your comments, suggestions, or questions, and you can reach me at email@example.com if you are so motivated!
One of my weekend tasks for the blog is to do a retrospective analysis of past stock selections. I have been doing this a week at a time, assuming that an equal dollar amount might have been purchased in each of the stocks discussed on the blog that particular week and that I employed a "buy and hold" strategy on these purchases. In reality, I suggest and employ a disciplined portfolio management system that involves selling losing stocks quickly and completely, and selling gaining stocks slowly and partially. For the sake of this review, I assume that stocks were purchased and still held at this time.
On June 7, 2005, I posted Harman International (HAR) on Stock Picks when it was trading at $94.77. HAR closed at $86.32 on October 6, 2006, for a loss of $(8.45) or (8.9)% since posting.
On August 15, 2006, Harman reported 4th quarter 2006 results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $859.1 million, up 6% from last year's $808 million. Analysts, according to Thomson Financial, had expected revenue of $873.4 million. The company earned $64.8 million or $.96/share, down from last year's $70.2 million or $1.01/share. After removing "restructuring charges and senior debt buybacks", the company earned $1.09/share, ahead of expected $1.07/share excluding charges. In that department, the company exceeded expectations. However, looking ahead, the company forecast $4.35/share in 2007, which is lower than the analysts' $4.46/share expected. All-in-all, a bit of a disappointing report.
On June 8, 2005, I posted Balchem (BCP) on Stock Picks at a price of $29.50/share. On January 23, 2006, Balchem had a 3:2 stock split, making my effective stock pick price actually $19.67. BCP closed at $19.80 on October 6, 2006, for a gain of $.13 or .7% since posting.
On August 1, 2006, BCP announced 2nd quarter 2006 results. For the three months ended June 30, 2006, net sales increased 28.8% to $25.1 million from $19.5 million in the same quarter last year. Net earnings increased 11.9% to $3.06 million, from $2.73 million in the same quarter last year. On a per diluted share basis, net earnings increased 8.7% to $.25/share, up from $.23/share.
Finally, on June 20, 2005, I posted Boston Beer (SAM) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $23.08. Boston Beer closed at $33.24 on October 6, 2006, for a gain of $10.16 or 44% since posting.
On August 8, 2006, Boston Beer announced 2nd quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended July 1, 2006, revenue climbed 28% to $87.6 million from $68.5 million last year. Profit came in at $8 million or $.56/share, up 60% from $.35/share last year. This, according to Thomson Financial, exceeded analysts' expectations of $.38/share. The company also raised guidance for 2006 full year to $1.16 to $1.31, (excluding stock option expenses of $.06 to $.11), this was up from prior guidance between $1.10 to $1.18/share. Thus, this was a great earnings report, with strongly improving revenue and earnings, and also exceeding expectations and raising guidance!
So how did I do with these three stocks? Well, I had one small loss, one break-even, and one strong gain for an average performance of a gain of 11.9% for this week a bit over a year ago!
Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org. I cannot promise to answer every email I receive, but I read all of them and share many of the comments here and on my podcast. Speaking of which, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site, where I also discuss many of these same stocks in an audio show.