Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice.   As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.  I also always look forward to any of your comments, suggestions, or questions, and you can reach me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you are so motivated!

One of my weekend tasks for the blog is to do a retrospective analysis of past stock selections.  I have been doing this a week at a time, assuming that an equal dollar amount might have been purchased in each of the stocks discussed on the blog that particular week and that I employed a "buy and hold" strategy on these purchases.  In reality, I suggest and employ a disciplined portfolio management system that involves selling losing stocks quickly and completely, and selling gaining stocks slowly and partially.  For the sake of this review, I assume that stocks were purchased and still held at this time. 

On June 7, 2005, I posted Harman International (HAR) on Stock Picks when it was trading at $94.77.  HAR closed at $86.32 on October 6, 2006, for a loss of $(8.45) or (8.9)% since posting.

On  August 15, 2006, Harman reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  Revenue for the quarter came in at $859.1 million, up 6% from last year's $808 million. Analysts, according to Thomson Financial, had expected revenue of $873.4 million.  The company earned $64.8 million or $.96/share, down from last year's $70.2 million or $1.01/share.  After removing "restructuring charges and senior debt buybacks", the company earned $1.09/share, ahead of expected $1.07/share excluding charges.  In that department, the company exceeded expectations.  However, looking ahead, the company forecast $4.35/share in 2007, which is lower than the analysts' $4.46/share expected.  All-in-all, a bit of a disappointing report.

On June 8, 2005, I posted Balchem (BCP) on Stock Picks at a price of $29.50/share.  On January 23, 2006, Balchem had a 3:2 stock split, making my effective stock pick price actually $19.67.  BCP closed at $19.80 on October 6, 2006, for a gain of $.13 or .7% since posting.

On August 1, 2006, BCP announced 2nd quarter 2006 results.  For the three months ended June 30, 2006, net sales increased 28.8% to $25.1 million from $19.5 million in the same quarter last year. Net earnings increased 11.9% to $3.06 million, from $2.73 million in the same quarter last year.  On a per diluted share basis, net earnings increased 8.7% to $.25/share, up from $.23/share.

Finally, on June 20, 2005, I posted Boston Beer (SAM) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $23.08.  Boston Beer closed at $33.24 on October 6, 2006, for a gain of $10.16 or 44% since posting.

On August 8, 2006, Boston Beer announced 2nd quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended July 1, 2006, revenue climbed 28% to $87.6 million from $68.5 million last year.  Profit came in at $8 million or $.56/share, up 60% from $.35/share last year.  This, according to Thomson Financial, exceeded analysts' expectations of $.38/share. The company also raised guidance for 2006 full year to $1.16 to $1.31, (excluding stock option expenses of $.06 to $.11), this was up from prior guidance between $1.10 to $1.18/share.  Thus, this was a great earnings report, with strongly improving revenue and earnings, and also exceeding expectations and raising guidance!

So how did I do with these three stocks?  Well, I had one small loss, one break-even, and one strong gain for an average performance of a gain of 11.9% for this week a bit over a year ago!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  I cannot promise to answer every email I receive, but I read all of them and share many of the comments here and on my podcast.  Speaking of which, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site, where I also discuss many of these same stocks in an audio show.

Bob