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Saturday, 14 April 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of November 28, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend and while it is a time for kicking back and unwinding, for me it is also a time to reflect on past stock selections from this blog and find out what happened to them.  If you are a regular reader here, you will realize that I try to accomplish three basic tasks on this blog.  First of all I like to look at different stocks that I believe may well turn out to be good investments, second I review my actual trading portfolio sharing with all of you my actual purchases and sales in that account, and finally, I am working on my own strategy of portfolio management and responding to the market sentiment changing my own exposure to equities in the market.

In order to assess what works in picking stocks, I have been reviewing past stock selections a week at a time.  Initially it really was a year ago, but with one missed weekend here and a missed weekend there, it has stretched out and really is almost a year-and-a-half out.  But in any case, I am trying to go sytematically through all of the selections.  

This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy of investing.  In practice, I employ and advocate a very different approach involving a disciplined buying and selling strategy of stocks that I actually own.  This difference in strategy would certainly affect overall performance, but for the ease of evaluation, I shall continue with my assumed 'buy and hold' approach for this review.

On November 28, 2005, I posted Lamson and Sessions (LMS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $23.70.  LMS closed at $26.76 on April 13, 2007, for a gain of 12.9%. 

On February 16, 2007, LMS announced fourth quarter 2006 results.   Net sales for the quarter came in at $115.3 million, down from $143.3 million in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income worked out to $4.0 million or $.25/share down from $14.6 million or $.93/diluted share in the same period the prior year.

LAMSON & SESSIONS (LMS) IS RATED A SELL

This is the "Point & Figure" Chart on Lamson & Sessions from StockCharts.com:


 

On November 29, 2005, I posted Orasure Technologies (OSUR) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $13.24.  OSUR closed at $7.64 on April 13, 2007, for a loss of $(5.60) or (42.3)%.

On February 13, 2007, Orasure (OSUR) announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, came in at $17.7 million, down from $18.0 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net income came in at $1.0 million or $.02/diluted share, but excluding some stock option expenses, earnings would have been $2.5 million or $.05/share, but this is still down from $20.6 million or $.44/share.  The company explains that the 2005 4th quarter included a favorable tax benefit of $17.7 million or $.38/share.  But even without this, the prior year came in at $2.9 million or $.06/share.  Any way you figure it, this quarter had less revenue and less earnings than the year ago period.  Thus,

ORASURE (OSUR) IS RATED A SELL

This is the "Point & Figure" chart on Orasure (OSUR) from StockCharts.com:

Finally, on November 30, 2005, I posted a "revisit"of RPC (RES) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $33.20.  RES had a 3:2 stock split on December 13, 2005, and another stock split on December 12, 2006, making my effective stock pick price actually $33.20 x 2/3 x 2/3 = $14.76. (The stock also split 3:2 on March 11, 2005, making the original 'pick' on November 26, 2004, which was selected at a price of $27.07, effectively picked at $27.07 x 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = $8.02. RPC (RES) closed at $18.46, thus showing a gain of $3.70 or 25.1% since being selected on November 30, 2005.

On February 7, 2007, RPC (RES) reported 4th quarter 2006 results.   Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, increased 36.4% to $160.3 million from $117.6 million in the prior year same period.  Net income was $29.5 million or $.30/diluted share, up from $21.5 million or $.22/diluted share last year.

RPC (RES) IS RATED A BUY 

Let's take a look at the "Point & Figure" chart on RES from StockCharts.com


So how did we do during that week of November 28, 2005?  I picked two stocks with moderate gains and one stock with a big loss.  The average performance of the three was a loss of (1.4)%.  This again points out the importance of limiting losses in a portfolio!

Thanks again for stopping by!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  Have a great weekend everyone!

Bob 


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