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Wednesday, 9 May 2007
Precision Castparts (PCP) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

First of all, let me apologize for not getting the "Weekend Review" up this weekend.  Did anyone notice?  (As a blogger, especially one who doesn't require any registration for what I write, I never know if people know when I don't do something :).)  Anyhow, I shall be going a bit light on the posts for the next week or two but shall try to continue to get in the "Trading Transparency" comments as they are applicable.

A few moments ago I sold I sold 14 shares of my 100 shares of Precision Castparts (PCP) at a price of $112.98.  These shares were originally purchased on 10/24/06 at a cost basis of $69.05.  Thus these shares were sold with a gain of $43.93 or 63.6% since purchase.  I had originally purchased 120 shares and sold 20 shares of PCP on 2/1/07 after it hit my 30% appreciation target.  At that time, I was still selling 1/6th of positions at appreciation targets instead of my new reduced 1/7th sale strategy.

In addition, if I were at my 25 position goal, this would entitle me to add a new position, giving me the proverbial "permission slip" to buy a new stock.  However, since I have chosen to stick at 20 positions in light of my significant margin level, I shall be sitting on my hands and applying the proceeds of this sale to that margin balance. 

If you are new to my blog, you may not know about my idiosyncratic selling system.  On 'good news', or appreciation targets being reached I sell 1/7th of my remaining shares in any given position.  These targets are grouped by four, and then intervals are increased by 30% after four levels are reached.  Let me explain again: first targeted appreciation levels that trigger a partial sale are at 30, 60, 90, and 120% appreciation levels.  After that, going by 60% intervals, the targeted appreciation levels are 180, 240, 300, and 360% appreciation....then by 90%, 450, 640, 730, and 820%....etc.

For Precision Castparts my next sale would either be at a 90% appreciation level, which works out to 1.90 x $69.05 = $131.20, or on the downside, if the stock should retrace to 50% of its highest targeted sale, or to a 30% appreciation level, then I would plan on unloading all remaining shares.  For PCP, this would work out to a sale if the stock declined back to a 30% appreciation level or 1.30 x $69.05 = $89.77.

The reason PCP jumped today, was, as you might have guessed, a great earnings report in which the company reported terrific revenue growth and beat expectations on earnings. 

Thank you again for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website, where I discuss many of the stocks I write about here on the blog.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:03 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink

Wednesday, 9 May 2007 - 4:31 PM CDT

Name: "anonymous"

Hi Bob,

I did notice that you didn't do a 'Weekend Review' but I didn't want to say anything. I always appreciate your research and your feedback on the stocks you analyze.

Your posts will be missed the next week or two, I have been learning a lot from them. Enjoy your 'vacation,' and I look forward to the return of your regular posts.

Eric

 

Wednesday, 9 May 2007 - 8:25 PM CDT

Name: "Robert Freedland"
Home Page: http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstoc

Eric,

Thank you again for your loyalty and your kind words.  If I have helped you understand the investment world, at least from my perspective, a little better, then I have been successful.  The stocks that I write up probably have a limited 'shelf-life'.  But the methods that I discuss, may well be useful years into the future.

Hopefully, with this 'experiment' we shall all be learning more about investing.

Bob

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