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Monday, 14 June 2004
June 14, 2004 Curtiss-Wright (CW)

Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. Sorry about the lapse of entries last week. You KNOW I am just an AMATEUR investor....and well...let me just point out that I am a bit of an AMATEUR blogger as well! It is amazing how one starts thinking of that invisible blog audience out there that is WAITING for your entry...or maybe I am just doing some wishful thinking. Anyhow, please remember to do your own investigation of all stocks discussed on this blog and please consult with your investment advisors regarding the suitability of any investment discussed here.

Now that I am back in business on this blog, I was scanning through the large percentage gainers today and came across Curtiss-Wright (CW). I do not own any shares nor do I have any leveraged or option positions in this company. CW had a nice day today, in an otherwise lackluster market, closed at $49.46, up $2.34 or 4.97% on the day. According to the Yahoo profile on CW, they are "...engaged in the design and manufacture of motion control, metal treatment and flow control products for the aerospace, metal working and other industries."

On April 29, 2004, CW reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net sales increased 19% to $214.9 million from $179.9 milllion in 2003. Net earnings were up 11% to $15.6 million or $.74/diluted share.

Looking at Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see that revenue has grown steadily from $293.3 million in 1999 to $746.1 million in 2003. Earnings have grown, somewhat less consistently, from $1.91/share to $2.50/share in 2003. Free cash flow has been positive with $42 million in 2001, increasing to $50 million in 2003. The balance sheet looks reasonable if less than spectacular with $98.7 million in cash and $275.9 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover all of the current liabilities of $135.9 million and enough to make a dent in the long-term liabilities of $358.9 million.

What about valuation? Looking at "Key Statistics" from Yahoo.com, we can see that this is a mid-cap investment with a market cap of $1.04 billion. The trailing p/e isn't bad at 19.36 and the forward p/e is even nicer at 14.63. I like the PEG which is quite reasonable at 1.07 and the price/sales is also quite nice at 1.27.

Yahoo reports 20.99 million shares outstanding with 18.50 million of them that float. Currently there are 955,000 shares out short as of 5/10/04 representing 5.16% of the float, and due to the relatively low trading volume of this stock, get this....22.738 trading days! Even though there aren't a lot of shares out short THAT is a lot of buying pressure on this stock if the stock should rise...as it did today...and possibly contribute to a bit of a "squeeze".

The company DOES pay a dividend of $.36/share yielding 0.76%. They recently split their shares 2:1 in December, 2003.

Well how do the "Technicals" look?




Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart from Stockcharts.com, a website that I HIGHLY recommend you visit and utilize....the graph simply looks beautiful...if not a little extended. The stock has been trading higher between 1999 and 2003 and then ran into a bit of resistance during 2003, finally breaking out in June 2003 and not looking back!

Well what do I think? The recent earnings are nice, the past revenue growth has been terrific, the free cash flow is excellent, the stock pays a dividend, the balance sheet is reasonable, the valuation is great with a PEG just over 1.0, and a Price/Sales just over 1.2, and the recent stock chart looks marvelous. Well, if I HAD some money, lol, I would probably buy a little of this stock. Well you know, I am waiting to SELL some of my existing positions at a GAIN before adding another position...but I guess I can dream about it :).

Anyway, THANKS so much for stopping by! I hope that my chatting is helpful to you and that you learn to look at stocks in a more analytic way...hopefully if you will add to my strategy and improve it! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:29 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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