Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Thursday, 7 August 2003
August 7, 2003 Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. (JOSB)
Not too many picks for our board today...Jos. A. Bank Clothiers does seem to fit the bill. JOSB had a great day along with some other retailers like Best Buy for it seems the consumer is still alive....even if he is not refinancing his house...he is spending at the Mall!
JOSB closed at $44.16 today, up $5.31 or 13.67%. According to CNN.Money, "Jos. A. Bank Clothiers is a retailer, cataloger, and manufacturer of men's tailored and casual clothing and accessories."
As I have mentioned elsewhere in the BLOG, retailers are often measured in terms of 'same store sales growth'. This allows an observer to assess whether the existing stores are providing the growth engine or whether the company is giving the 'appearance' of growth by opening new outlets while existing outlets are actually performing at a less robust pace. In this case, getting to the point!, JOSB reported that its total sales for the month ending August 2, 2003, increased 31.6% to a record $17.5 million compared to $13.3 million in July, 2002. More importantly, same store sales increased 19.4% (!), while combined catalog and internet sales increased 25.4%, when compared to the prior-year month.
Let me repeat for emphasis, JOSB reported same store sales growth of 19.4%. This is fabulous!
Last May 20, 2003, JOSB reported their latest earnings report overall and announced earnings per share of $.30 for the first quarter of 2003 compared with $.25/share for the same period in 2002. Total sales increased 11.6% to $62.3 million compared with $55.8 million in the first quarter of 2002. During the first quarter, comparable store sales increased only 0.6%.
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue from $172.2 million in 1998, $187.2 million in 1999, $193.5 million in 2000, $206.3 million in 2001, $211.0 million in 2002 and $232.8 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has been at best erratic with $7 million in 2001, $(12) million in 2002, $12 million in 2003, and $(11) million in the trailing twelve months.
The company has plenty of liquidity with $1.4 million in casha nd $108.7 million in other current assets compared to $56.5 million in current liabilities and $27.4 million in long-term liabilities.
Yahoo.com shows that this stock has a relatively small $240.9 million market cap with only 6.20 million shares outstanding and 5.00 million that float. No dividend is paid. The p/e is a reasonable 24.53 and the price to sales is also quite reasonable imho at 1.11. As of July 8, 2003, there are 829,000 shares out short representing 3.32 days of average trading volume.
I like this stock as much for its steady revenue growth as the superb same store sales growth figure just repeated. The p/e is reasonable, the price/sales ratio is fair, and there aren't many shares outstanding suggesting lots of room for growth.
Thanks for stopping by and please leave me a note a email@example.com if you have any questions or comments.
Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:23 PM CDT
Updated: Thursday, 7 August 2003 4:38 PM CDT
Trading Transparency Zoran (ZRAN)
Market came to a close today...Dow moved up 64.71 but Nasdaq down .50 to 1652.18. ZRAN closed at $24.24 down $1.22 on the day or 4.79%. By the time it got down to $24.69, I was down about 8.3% on my investment so out it went and we sold 200 shares to close out our position in our trading portfolio. I don't see any news to explain the drop...but when it hits our 8% loss...out it goes. Our only other stock in jeopardy is Websense (WBSN) keeping at a 5.77% loss in our trading account. WBSN closed at $19.20 today up 0.03 or 0.16%.
Wednesday, 6 August 2003
August 6, 2003 FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN)
Yesterday I couldn't find any stocks that fit our criteria, now they are literally coming out of our ears. (What an analogy huh?) This REALLY must be some sort of bullish signal when out kind of stocks start showing up in droves in the top percentage movers....don't you think? Time will tell...
Anyhow, hopefully the last post for the day, phew, FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN),is having a great day trading at $21.90 up $1.03 on the day or 4.94%. The graph of this stock looks horrendous with a slide from almost $40 in April to its current level just over $20. Quite frankly, browsing through the news, I don't really see why the stock is down...but let's concentrate on the fundamentals:
"FTI Consulting is a multi-disciplined consulting firm with practices in the areas of bankruptcy and financial restructuring, litigation consulting and engineering/scientific investigation." per CNN.Money.
On July 23, 2003, per NYTimes on the Web FTI reported OUTSTANDING financial results: for the quarter revenue was $94.5 million an increase of 137.4% compared with $39.8 million in 2002. Income from continuing operations grew 213.6% to $18.5 million from $5.9 million in the comparable period the prior year. On a per share basis, earnings on a diluted basis grew 144.4% to $.44/share from $.18/share last year.
Morningstar.com shows revenue growing from $36 million in 1998, $49 million 1999, $96 million 2000, $122 million 2001, $224 million in 2002, and $288 million in the trailing twelve months.
Free cash flow has grown nicely from $9 million in 2000, $31 million in 2001, $69 million in 2002 and $88 million in the trailing twelve months.
Assets and Liabilities look nice with $75.5 million of cash, enough to pay off current liabilities of $64.1 million, and $81.0 million in other current assets, more than enough to cover the long term debt of $29.8 million.
This is a relatively small company with a market cap of $871.7 million, 41.8 million shares and 23.4 million that float. No dividend is paid. The short interest is interesting as there are 7.64 Million shares out short (!) representing 32.6% of the float (!!). This represents 10.26 days of average trading. This is actually bullish for this stock as we may see a short "squeeze" where traders are frantically buying shares trying to cover their borrowed shares already sold.
Anyhow, only downside, imho, is the recent graph of the stock price. The large number of shorts on this suggests they see something I don't. But would suggest that this may represent an awesome buying opportunity. If I get some free cash, this might just be one to consider a new investment!
Regards to all of my friends!
August 6, 2003 Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH)
The market started off lower, then the bulls stepped in...will it hold? Anyhow, all of these GREAT companies are showing up on our screens.
I do not own any shares of Zimmer but my wife owns I believe 8 shares that are the result of a spinoff of Zimmer from Bristol Myers Squibb. Currently, Zimmer is trading at $49.79 up $2.49 or 5.26% on the day.
According to CNN.Money, Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) "...is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and marketing of orthopaedic reconstructive implants and fracture management products, including artificial knees, hips and other joints."
On July 23, 2003, Zimmer reported (per NYTimes on the Web) 2nd quarter results: Net sales increased 19% (14% adjusted for currency fluctuations) to $411 million. Net earnings increased 35% to $89.0 million, and diluted earnings per share increased 32% to $.45 vs. $.34 in 2002.
Morningstar.com shows a beautiful series of bar graphs representing annual revenues increasing from $861 million in 1998, $939 million in 1999, $1.04 billion in 2000, $1.17 billion in 2001, $1.37 billion in 2002 and $1.44 billion in the trailing twelve months.
This corporation is spinning off lots of free cash: $203 million in 2000, $117 million 2001, $187 million in 2002, and $232 million in the trailing twelve months.
The assets and liabilities look nice too with $33.4 million of cash and $541.3 million of other current assets balanced by $342.7 million of current liabilities and $93.4 million of long-term liabilities.
This is a large company with a market cap of $9.29 billion with 196.5 million shares outstanding with 195.8 million of them that float. There is no dividend, there are 5.84 million shares out short representing 3.0% of the float and 4.19 days of average trading.
Overall, this company looks like an excellent investment quite worthy of your consideration. Perhaps a conservative investment based on its size but the bottom line looks excellent and it fits our criteria!
August 6, 2003 Pulte Homes (PHM)
I really don't WANT to post another home builder after getting by fingers burnt with the spike in interest rates....but there it is...Pulte Homes shows up on the largest percentage gainers. And what is a guy gonna do? I mean rules are rules and there is this homebuilder staring me in the face with all the great numbers that mean we should consider it. So we shall. Maybe the rebound on the homebuilders means that interest rates are temporarily too high...and shall be declining short term.
Pulte, a stock that I do not own any shares, "...is a holding company whose subsidiaries are engaged in homebuilding and financial services businesses." according to Cnn.money.
The stock currently is trading at $63.86 up $3.31 or 5.47% on the day. On July 24, 2003, Pulte reported their second quarter results: net income increased 35% to a record $122.0 million compared to $90.4 million for the same quarter last year. Earnings per diluted share were $1.95 representing a 34% increase over prior year earnings per diluted share of $1.45. Consolidated revenues were $2.0 billion, a 16% increase over prior year results of $1.7 billion.
Morningstar.com shows an equally pretty picture of revenue growth: $2.9 billion in 1998, $3.8 billion in 1999, $4.2 billion i 2000, $5.4 billion in 2001, $7.4 billion in 2002 and $7.6 billion in the trailing twelve months.
Unfortunately, there are no cash flow numbers posted on Pulte on Morningstar.com.
Pulte is fairly flush with cash with $868.7 million in cash, $4.6 billion of other current assets to offset $1.7 billion in current liabilities and $2.25 billion in long-term liabilities.
The company has a market cap of $3.7 billion with 61.1 million shares outstanding and 42.8 million of them that float. There is a small dividend of $.16/share (0.26%), the p/e is a downright dirt-cheap 7.61, and there are 2.28 million shares out short on this company representing only 2.60 days of trading.
I like the numbers of this homebuilder a lot. I just am a bit leary if that sector is a bit overdone...but the numbers cry out for attention!
Have a great Wednesday! Thanks for stopping by.
August 6, 2003 DRS Technologies, Inc. (DRS)
O.K. so I wasn't too excited about my last post. (Sunrise). This one I like a bit more and IS a stock that I own and have in my trading account.
DRS Technologies "...is a diversified, high-technology company serving government and commercial niche markets worldswide. The Company develops and manufactures a variety of systems and components used for the processing and storage of data." according to Cnn.money.
DRS is having a good day trading at $27.98 up $1.47 or 5.55% on the day. Like many of our recent posts, the stock jumped on news of its first quarter earnings that was reported yesterday, August 5, 2003.
Briefly, according to the NYTimes on the Web, Fiscal 2004 first quarter revenues were $167.2 million, a 27% increase over revenues of $131.2 million for last years first quarter. Operating income was $16.4 million representing a 29% higher income than the $12.7 million reported in 2003.
Net earnings were $7.3 million or $.32/diluted share an increase of 34% from last year's $5.4 million net income or an increase of 3% ver last year's $.31/share reported in 2003.
(Diluted shares outstanding were 30% higher at 22.9 million due to a 5.5 million share offering in 2003.
The Morningstar.com site: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Stock/Financials.asp?Country=USA&Symbol=DRS&sktab=fiin&hsection=
shows a beautiful series of revenue reports from $180.8 million in 1998, $265.8 million in 1999, $391.5 million in 2000, $428 million in 2001, $517 million in 2002 and $676 million in 2003.
Free cash flow has been steady at $18 million in 2001, $14 million in 2002, and $30 million in 2003.
Assets and liabilities not quite as pretty but fairly well balanced with $95.9 million in cash on hand with $293.4 million in other current assets balanced by $289.3 million in current liabilities and $244.7 million in long-term liabilities.
The market cap is $595.3 million with 22.5 million shares outstanding with 22.2 million that float. No dividend is paid. The p/e is a reasonable 16.84 and there are 1.19 million shares out short representing 5.4% of float or 6.46 trading days based on an average day of 184,000 shares trading. (data per Yahoo as of 7/8/03).
Overall, for a defense contractor, this is a pretty picture and worth your consideration. It has already gotten my attention as I bought some shares earlier this year (see my trading account listed elsewhere on bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com.
Regards to All!
August 6, 2003 Sunrise Senior Living, Inc. (SRZ)
Another bad day in the market. And today they are taking down the HMO's. We have a couple on our list and if you own any, remember to keep a tight 8% stop on your losses. In my trading account, I haven't hit any 8% loss limits with this correction but I am close on Zoran with about a 6.5% loss. Goes down a few more pennies and it will hit the stop.
Anyhow, without giving up all hope and optimism...we are back at work here. Sunrise Senior Living, Inc., is actually having a nice day and fits almost all of our criteria. Currently it is trading at $23.95 up $.62 on the day. They announced their second quarter earnings today and managed to support the stock price in an otherwise poor trading day.
Sunrise reported that second quarter earnings per share were $.67, a 43 percent increase over the same period in 2002. Revenues rose 179% to $334.5 million from $119.9 million in the same quarter last year.
Morningstar.com shows a history of steady revenue growth from $89.9 million in 1997, $171 million in 1998, $255 million in 1999, $345 million in 2000, $428 million in 2001 and $506 million in 2002.
Free cash flow has improved recently from an unimpressive $5 million in 2000, $3 million in 2001, ($1) million in 2002 and a positive $58 million in the trailing twelve months as reported on Morningstar.
The assets/liabilities picture is a little disturbing with $72.2 million in cash and $77.9 million in other current assets with $195.8 million in current liabilities and $534.3 million in long-term liabilities.
While most of the picture looks o.k., the heavy debt picture makes me a little unenthusiastic about this selection. If you need an investment in this arena, this might be a nice selection. Otherwise, like me, you might just wish to pass. Have a great Wednesday!
Monday, 4 August 2003
August 4, 2003 Atrion Corporation (ATRI)
Last one for the day! Atrion Corporation (ATRI). I have never even HEARD of this corporation before finding it on the list of greatest percentage gainers. Yet it does seem to fit the bill.
Needless to say, I do not own any shares of ATRI.
Atrion, according to CNN.Money "...is a holding company that designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells and distributes medical products and components." ATRI had a nice day today, closing at $34.70 up $2.68 or 8.37% on the day.
On July 30, 2003, Atrion reported their second quarter results: revenues were up 9% and earnings per share from continuing operations were up 29% compared to the second quarter of 2002.
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue from $43.4 million in 1998, $49.9 million in 1999, $51.4 million in 2000, $57.6 million in 2001 and $59.5 million in 2002.
Free Cash flow has gradually improved from $4 million in 2000, to $6 million in 2001 and $7 million in 2002.
The Balance Sheet on Morningstar shows only a little cash at $700,000 with $21.8 million in other current assets balanced against $6.4 million of current liabilities and $11.2 million in long-term liabilities.
Atrion is a very small company with only a $53.4 million market cap with 1.67 million shares outstanding and 1.20 million that float! The p/e is a very reasonable 13.31. There are no shares reported out short as of 7/8/03.
This is an interesting situation. Numbers are good and the company is tiny. Sometimes with the small float, a little buying pressure can create tremendous upward price movement....then again, if something goes wrong, the average trading volume is 1,000 shares....and it may be harder to unload shares due to the limited liquidity of the stock.
Good luck! And thanks for stopping by! Drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any questions or comments.
August 4, 2003 Intier Automotive Inc. (IAIA)
Well the market is trying to rally today. Let's see if it holds the gain into the close...that could be bullish for trading tomorrow!
Came across this company today. I do not own any shares nor does anyone in my family of Intier Automotive (IAIA). Intier "...is a global full service supplier of automotive interior and closure components, systems & modules. IAIA directly supplies most of the major auto makers in the world." according to CNN.Money.
Intier is having a nice day today, probably in anticipation of earnings, trading at $16.50 up $1.50 or 9.99%.
Morningstar.com shows a nice record of revenue growth from $2.1 billion in 1997, $2.57 billion in 1998, $2.83 billion in 1999, $2.971 billion in 2000, $3.26 billion in 2001, $3.862 billion in 2002.
Intier announced first quarter 2003 results (latest reported quarter) on 5/7/03. At that time they reported that sales increased 17% to $1,031.6 million from $878.9 million in 2002. (currency exchange rates affected this positively by about $70 million).
Free cash flow has improved from a ($133) million in 2000 to a positive $79 million in 2001 and $179 million in 2002. Operating income increased to $30.1 million from $28.5 million for the first quarter of 2002.
Assets and liabilities are fairly well balanced with $241.3 million in cash and $874.9 million in other current assets vs $835.3 million in current liabilities and $302.5 million in long-term liabilities.
Yahoo.com shows that this Canada-based company has a market cap of $723.5 million with 48.2 million shares outstanding and only 4.70 million that float. The companies pays a $.40 dividend suggesting a 2.67% yield. The p/e is a reasonable 16.97, and there are no shares reported short as of 7/8/03.
If you would like something that is not high-tech, a bio-tech, or a financial, this might be a stock for you. I still remain concerned about the overall health of auto sales, so I am a bit slow to embrace this particular stock...but it deserves to be on our horizon. Thanks for stopping by!
August 4, 2003 Mylan Laboratories (MYL)
Another down day for the market! In the midst of this, Mylan shows up on our list. According to CNN.Money, MYL "...is engaged in the development, licensing, manufacturing and marketing of generic and proprietary finished pharmaceutical products." Sounds a little like LCI, and ELAB, which are some of our other stock picks that manufacture generics.
I do not own any shares of MYL nor does anyone in my family.
MYL is having a nice day in the market trading currently at $34.50 up $.95 or 2.83% on the day.
On July 23, 2003, MYL reported their first quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2003. During this period, net revenues increased 20% to $331.4 million from $275.5 million in 2002. Net earnings for the quarter increased 36% to $83.9 million from $61.8 million in the same period last year. On a per share basis, diluted earnings per share were $.46 vs. $.32 last year, an increase of 44%. However, first quarter results included gains on legal settlements amounting to $.08 of the $.12 increase from last year.
Morningstar.com shows a steady growth in revenue: $0.6 billion in 1998, $0.7 billion in 1999, $0.79 billion in 2000, $.84 billion in 2001, $1.1 billion in 2002.
Free cash flow has recently been outstanding with $89 million in 2000, dropping to $41 million in 2001, but increasing to $326 million in 2002. Morningstar reports that the trailing twelve months free cash flow has been $266 million.
The Balance Sheet on Morningstar look excellent: Cash on hand is reported at $708 million, way more than current liabilities of $262.7 million and $39.2 million in long-term liabilities combined. In addition, MYL has $517.3 million in other current assets.
Mylan has a sizeable market cap of $6 billion with 179.0 million shares outstanding and 170.3 million of those that float. The company DOES pay a small dividend yielding 0.40% ($.13/share) and trades at a reasonable p/e of 21.23. There are 2 million shares out short but due to the average trading volume of 1.46 million, this represents only 1.36 trading days.
This is a very nice stock to look at for consideration for investment. Thanks for stopping by and visiting...please feel to leave comments here or email me at email@example.com if you have any questions, comments, or what I love, words of encouragement!
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