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Tuesday, 6 November 2007
Hologic (HOLX) "Trading Transparency"

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

Hologic (HOLX) is an old favorite of mine.  I last reviewed the stock on July 25, 2006.  I have been an owner of shares in the past and my stock club has also owned shares at times.  In fact, Hologic was the purchaser of Cytyc (CYTC) a stock that was a terrific performer.  Cytyc went higher and HOLX the other way leading to a sale as I recall the sequence of events. 

Today, just prior to the opening of trading, Hologic announced 4th quarter 2007 results for the quarter ended September 29, 2007.  Revenue for the quarter came in at $202.5 million, a 31% increase compared to the $154.1 million in the same quarter last year.  Net income was even nicer, coming in at $32.1 million or $.58/share, compared to a net loss of $(1.5) million or $(.03)/share.

The company beat expectations of $.53/share and revenue figures of $198.8 million. 

HOLOGIC (HOLX) IS RATED A BUY

However, what did the street do to the stock?

In the usual over-reaction of buying on expectations and selling on the news, the street took Hologic stock apart.  The stock traded as low as $59.45 today, down almost $8 from yesterday's close near $67. 

With the apparently irrational move, I chose to break all of my rules and bought and sold 400 shares of HOLX today.  I purchased 400 shares of HOLX at $62.9799 earlier today, and then later today with the stock moving higher, sold my 400 shares at $63.97.  I guess I made my point.

I do not own any shares of HOLX as I write.  The trade is done.

This isn't really my strategy of disciplined buying and selling, but once in awhile, you know what I mean, sometimes a person just has to use his/her brains and get it right.  Without a buy signal and without the appropriate characteristics to add the stock into my trading account, this still represents just a trade and me 'breaking all of my rules.'

Anyhow, that's the update!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:16 PM CST | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink

Tuesday, 6 November 2007 - 10:58 PM CST

Name: "hap"
Home Page: http://hapmoorii.blogspot.com

Nice work on that trade, Bob.  Being able to play the winning side of the earnings game is an art.  You have to know a stock well to be able to do what you did today.

Your post did get me thinking, though.  On another blog I've started reading, I believe the author uses a couple of different strategies every day.  I've always been kind of like you and just want to stick to one system, but is there really anything wrong with using multiple system simultaneously?  I guess the answer is obviously "No" assuming you're profitable.  

For instance, I'm a contrarian by nature.  Right now, I'm watching the financials to see if they continue to break down or decide to bounce.  However, I'm a believer in your approach as well and have been considering setting aside some money for experimenting with it.  Am I setting myself up for failure?

Wednesday, 7 November 2007 - 9:12 AM CST

Name: "Robert Freedland"
Home Page: http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstoc

Hap,

It is always great to see you on the blog!  Thanks for visiting and commenting. 

You raise an excellent point.  I do believe it is wise to be able to evaluate stocks for potential price appreciation by a number of different strategies.  Personally I call this an 'eclectic' approach, involving momentum, fundamentals, and technical appearance of charts.  But lately I have tried to loosen up a bit and see if I can do a trade like I did yesterday--usually I am unsuccessful fighting the street so I shall try not to make a habit of this.

I think we are all better if we generally stick to a coherent strategy that anticipates good and bad markets by buying and selling stocks in some disciplined approach.  Time will tell if it will work.

Because if I am to mix my strategies too much, I would start buying stocks after they declined instead of selling them because they would be a better "value".  I guess the answer is to develop some sort of strategy, whatever you decide is ok, be prepared for bull and bear markets, and then sometimes on occasion, just 'break the rules' for the moment.

Anyhow, remember that I am an 'amateur'.  So take my advice with a grain of salt if you would.

Again I am flattered to have you visiting and participating on the website. 

Warmest regards,

Bob Freedland

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