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Sunday, 13 July 2008
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of November 6, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I generally like to review my past stock picks on weekends taking a look at the pick price and what might have happened to an investor who purchased shares that particular week at that price.  In addition, I take a look at some of the current information to see if anything new might have changed my own appraisal of a past stock pick.

These evaluations assume a "buy and hold" approach to investing.  In practice, I advocate as well as employ a disciplined approach to my holdings---selling decling stocks quickly and completely and selling appreciating stocks slowly and partially at appreciation price targets.  This difference in strategy would certainly affect any actual performance and should be taken into consideration.

During the week of November 6, 2006, I posted only a single stock pick, Bitstreat (BITS).  On November 8, 2006, BITS was trading at $9.61/share.  Bitstream (BITS) closed at $5.987 on July 11, 2008, for a loss of $(3.623) or (37.7)% since posting.  I do not own any shares or options in this stock.

Let's take another look at this stock and see if it still deserves a 'buy rating' on this blog!

First of all, let's recall what this company does.

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Bitstream (BITS), the company

"operates as a software development company in the United States. The company offers font technology products comprising Font Fusion, a font rendering subsystem that enables developers of embedded systems to render characters in various languages and formats on hardware device; Bitstream Panorama, a global text composition engine, which enables developers to draw strings of characters and lay out complex lines of text; btX3, a font subsystem that allows Linux developers to access worldwide fonts; TrueDoc, a portable font technology, which distributes text with fidelity; and TrueDoc Imaging System subsystem for developers of operating systems, servers, applications, printers, and printer controllers to provide scaleable resident fonts, as well as Bitstream Typeface Library, BTN Library, Certified Simplified Chinese GB18030 Font, Asian Stroke-Based Fonts, International Fonts, Tiresias Screenfont, Closed Caption Television Font Set and TV Font Pack, and MobileFonts." 

How did they do in the latest quarter?

On May 14, 2008, Bitstream (BITS) reported 1st quarter 2008 results.  Revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2007, increased 16% to $6.37 million compared to $5.49 million the prior year same period.  Net income dipped $57,000 or 8% to $659,000 or $.06/diluted share down from $716,000 or $.07/diluted share the prior year.

How do longer-term results look?

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see that revenue growth remains uninterrupted from 2003 when the company had $10 million in sales and has more than doubled revenue to $24 million in 2007.  Earnings have improved from a loss of $(.14)/share in 2003 to $.36/share in 2007 and $.35/share in the TTM.  Free cash flow appears to also continue to show positive growth with $5 million reported for 2007 up from $1 million in 2005.  

Finally, the balance sheet appears solid with $15 million in cash and $3 million in other current assets.  This can easily cover the $4.3 million in current liabilities (yielding a current ratio of over 4).  No long-term liabilities are reported. 

Except for the slight dip in earnings, the Morningstar.com report appears intact.

What about the chart?

Looking at the 'point and figure' chart on Bitstream (BITS), we can see how the price of the stock broke down below the 'support line' in July, 2007 when it dipped down to $5/share which it reached in January, 2008.  The stock actually appears to be on a slight rebound since May, 2008.  But certainly, the chart shows continued weakness after the stock peaked at $12 in February, 2007. 


With the weak price performance since being "picked', the mixed bag in the earnings department with revenue up nicely and earnings dipping slightly, but the overall intact Morningstar.com page, the best I can do--

BITSTREAM (BITS) IS RATED A HOLD

I am much better at determining when a stock might be a "buy" than determining whether it should now be a "hold" or a "sell".  But with the stock already off 50% of its high, it seems a bit late to be advocating a sell on this stock.  

Bitstream (BITS) was the only stock I discussed that week in November in 2006.  Thus, my overall performance for the week was a mediocre loss of (37.7)%.  This once again underlines the importance of limiting losses on all stock purchases.  I am not one to ride a stock down waiting to see the stock climb once again.

Thanks so much for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my actual trading account is being monitored and evaluated.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my SocialPicks page as well where my many 'picks' are evaluated and monitored. Finally, if you are into listening to mp3's on iTunes or elsewhere, be sure and visit my Podcast Page where you can listen and download some of my discussions of some of the many stocks I write about here on this blog.

Have a good week everyone!

Yours in investing,

 

Bob 

 


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