"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of February 9, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to using any information on this website for any investment decisions!

I found this image on a Japanese Website. There are a lot of funny ones there! (but not all in good taste nor politically correct...so consider yourself warned!) I hope all of you have a very happy Easter weekend!

As many of the regular readers know who stop by this blog, I like to pick stocks that I think might have the characteristics that might result in price appreciation...that is the stock price moves higher. I certainly do NOT bat 100%, but it helps to revisit old picks in a rather regular fashion and see what would have happened if we had really purchased these stocks. These reviews assume a buy and hold strategy which is NOT what I actually employ nor do I recommend for anyone to do that. In fact, I practice cutting my losses quickly and then selling my gainers slowly!

On February 10, 2004, I posted Thor Industries (THO) on Stock Picks at a price of $33.86. THO closed at $30.32 on 3/24/05 for a loss of $(3.54) or (10.5)%.

On March 1, 2005, THO announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue increased 26% to $537 million from $426.5 million last year. Quarterly income grew to $20.6 million or $.36/share up from $17.5 million or $.30/share the prior year. However, the "street" was looking for $.41/share in earnings, and the stock dropped after that announcement.

On February 11, 2004, I posted Giant Industries (GI) on Stock Picks when it was trading at $15.94. Giant closed at $24.35 on 3/24/05, for a gain of $8.41 or 52.8%.

On March 15, 2005, GI announced 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the quarter rose 50% to $674.3 million from $449 million the prior year same quarter. Quarterly income, however, declined 55% to $729,000 or $.06/share from $1.6 million or $.18/share the prior year.

I posted NetSmart (NTST) on Stock Picks on 2/11/04 when it was trading at $17.60/share. (NTST operated under its subsidiaries name "Creative Socio-Medics"). NTST closed at $9.36 on 3/24/05, for a loss of $(8.24) or (46.8)%.

On March 18, 2005, NTST announced 4th quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2004, revenue came in at $7.57 million, up from $7.36 million the prior year. Net income for the fourth quarter came in at $1.3 million (including a $.34 million deferred tax benefit) or $.24/diluted share up from $690,000, the prior year or $.13/diluted share. Even without the tax benefit, net income would still be up almost 50%.

On February 12, 2004, I picked CyberGuard (CGFW) for Stock Picks when it was trading at $11.96. CGFW closed at $7.81 on 3/24/05 for a loss of $(4.15) or (34.7)%.

On January 25, 2005, CGFW reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2004, came in at $16.5 million, an increase of $5.3 million or 47% over revenues of $11.2 million for the corresponding quarter the prior year. Net income however, came in at $1.0 million or $.03/diluted share, compared with $2.3 million or $.08/diluted share the prior year.

Finally, on 2/15/04, I posted The Sportsman's Guide (SGDE) on Stock Picks at a price of $21.64. SGDE closed at $25.40 on 3/24/05, for a gain of $3.76 or 17.4%.

On March 1, 2005, SGDE announced 4th quarter 2004 results. Sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2004, came in at $92.5 million, a 29% increase over the $71.7 million for the same quarter the prior year. Net earnings came in at $4.6 million or $.85/diluted share up from $3.8 million or $.71/diluted share the prior year. In addition, the company announced a 3:2 stock split, in the form of a 50% stock dividend to be paid to shareholders of record on 3/25/05. This was a nice report from SGDE!

Overall, how did we do with selections that week? Not very good! In fact, we had two gainers and three losers, for an average performance of a loss of (4.36)%. This week's picks shows you a couple of things, but most of all, how the selections on this website can lead to significant losses! So consult with your professional advisors!! And also, how important it is to keep your losses from growing! Thus, selling rather quickly on losses and avoiding selling too fast on gains!

Thanks again for stopping by! Wishing all of my friends a very Happy Easter holiday! If you have any questions or comments, or even words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob