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Sunday, 23 November 2003
"Six months ago" A longer term view from week of 5/12/03
It has been a little over six months ago since I first posted here. I have become a bit concerned about going out into cyberspace and writing down comments about stocks. I try to let you know where I get my information, whether I own shares of the stock, and why I like this stock. However, as always, remember to consult with your own investment advisor before taking any actions based on this website. The information here may or may not be appropriate for you and may or may not be profitable or potentially a financial loss for you.

Let's take a look back at the first week of this website. Specifically, the week of May 12, 2003, which you can link to by using the calendar on the left of the BLOG. During the week of May 12th, I posted my first notes on stocks here which included St. Jude Medical (STJ) on 5/12/03 at $55.30, HealthExtras (HLEX) on 5/14/03 at $5.70, J2 Communications (JCOM) on 5/14/03 at $32.60, AMN Healthcare (AHS) at $10.05 on 5/15/03, and Agree Realty (ADC) at $23.41 on 5/16/03.

St. Jude Medical closed 11/21/03 at $59.95. This is a gain of $4.65 or 8.4% since posting. Since posting, I now own STJ in my trading account having purchased 150 shares at $57.79 on 10/15/03. STJ's story appears to be intact, they reported earnings on 10/15/03 picked up from BUSINESS WIRE on Yahoo.com, third quarter results showed a sales and earnings increase of 18% from the prior year.

HealthExtras was picked on this site at $5.70. I have been in and out of that stock since that posting and just received a confirmation from a managed retirement account (where I do NOT make investment decisions) that my manager has just added some shares of HLEX to my retirement portfolio. However, I do not own any shares in my trading account. HLEX closed on 11/21/03 at $11.88 for a gain of $6.18 or 108.4%.

JCOM was selected on 5/14/03 at $32.60. JCOM has been under pressure lately, but closed at $25.85 on 11/21/03. However, this stock split 2:1 on 9/2/03 for and effective cose of $16.30. Thus, this stock is up $9.55/share or 58.6% as of this past Friday. Fundamentally, the stock appears to be intact with the latest earnings report on October 20, 2003, as picked up on Yahoo.com from PRNewswire-FirstCall, revenues increased 51% to $18.9 million, and net earnings increased 93% to $7.5 million from the prior year.

AMN Healthcare (AHS) was selected on 5/15/03 at $10.05/share. AHS closed Friday, 11/21/03, at $15.98. This represents a gain of $5.93/share or 59.0%. On November 5, 2003, AHS reported their third quarter results. As picked up on Yahoo.com from Dow Jones, earnings were $9.3 million, compared with $14.3 million last year, and revenue declined 16% to $171.5 million from $203.4 million last year. However, they beat expectations and the stock has continued to do well. However, this company, which I do not own any shares, has gotten off its record of continuing growth, and if I owned it, this would be a candidate for a sale on any weakness.

Finally, Agree Realty (ADC) was picked on 5/16/03 at $23.41/share. ADC closed 11/21/03 at $26.27/share for a gain of $2.86 or 12.2% since I selected it for this website. I do not own any shares, nor have I owned any of this stock in the past. They reported results on 10/29/03, picked up by Yahoo.com from PRNewswire-First call. Both revenues and earnings appear to be DOWN from last year. This stock has a nice gain for us on this site, but would also be a candidate for a sale on any weakness!

So how have we done? Not too shabby imho. For the five stocks we selected a little over 6 months ago, the first week of this website, we have gains of 8.4%, 108.4%, 58.6%, 59%, and 12.2%. Because of the stupendous performance of HLEX and the outstanding performance of JCOM and AHS, we have an average gain of 49.32% in six months.

Overall, this is a great performance, but taken in light of the overall gain in the market this same period, as far as I am concerned the jury is still out on this methodology. But it sure was a nice week to start out with!

Thanks for stopping by! Remember to always consult with your investment advisor as I am just an amateur investor with a love of stocks...and the advice here may or may not be appropriate for you and may or may not result in gains.

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Wishing everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving!

Bob


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