Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by! I took a break from the Democratic Convention (I am a total political junkie and love to watch all of the politicians from both parties speak!), and decided I had better take care of my blog! Please remember, as always, that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors before taking any action based on information on Stock Picks Bob's Advice.


How about longer-term? Looking at "5-Yr Restated" financials from Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue, although slightly erratic, has grown from $329.6 million in 1999 to $451.4 million in the TTM.
Earnings, while improving the last couple years, have been inconsistent, peaking at $.69/share in 2000, dropping to $.39/share in 2002, and then improving steadily since. Free cash flow looks nice with $(8) million reported in 2001, improving the $41 million in the TTM.

How about "valuation"? Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo, we can see that this is a Mid-Cap stock with a market cap of $2.20 billion. The trailing p/e is steep at 52.33, with a forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-05) of 28.46. The PEG is also a bit rich at 2.09, and the Price/Sales is 4.08.
Yahoo reports 78.84 million shares outstanding with 48.10 million of them that float. There are a LOT of shares out short. As of 7/8/04, there were 3.31 million shares out short representing 13.127 trading days. The move today 'might' be a bit of a squeeze of the short-sellers as they scrambled to buy back pre-sold shares. This short interest is most likely due to the steep valuation (p/e), but with the latest quarterly results, I would be hard pressed defending anyone who was interested in selling this company short. (just my opinion.)
The company does pay a small dividend which it initiated in 2003, paying $.20/share yielding 0.81%. The last stock split was a 3:2 in February of this year.
How about the chart? Taking a look at a stockcharts.com Point & Figure Chart:
looking at the chart, and I am NOT a technician by any means, but you can see that this stock was trading lower between February, 2001 through October 2002, when it bottomed at $13.50. Since then it has been trading higher. The chart looks nice to me as the stock is currently heading higher and doesn't appear over-extended. Then again, take a look yourself at the graph and see what you think!
Well, what do I think? Well, I like the recent quarterly report a lot. I like the fact that NATI is predicting a continued growth in revenue and earnings for the next two quarters. I wish I had a better feel for their products....but the numbers aren't bad. The "valuation" is a bit steep both with a high p/e and a PEG just over 2.0, however, if the current explosive earnings growth continues, these numbers will be adjusted in a positive fashion. NATI is generating loads of cash and the balance sheet is superb. In addition, the recent initiation of cash dividends is always a plus as this will add additional investors who are looking for dividends as well as growth. Technically, the graph looks just fine and I like the fact that there are a LOT of short sellers out there. That is bullish imho. I would even consider buying some shares, but you know the story....I have to wait to sell something at a gain from my current portfolio!
Thanks so much for bearing with me! I hope that my discussion and links were helpful to you. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .
Bob