"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 6, 2003






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by. I appreciate your visits, your messages and emails, for all of you who come by and participate here make it all worthwhile for me! So make yourself at home here at Stock Picks Bob's Advice. Always remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors and do your own investigation of all stocks discussed here to make sure they are appropriate, timely, and likely to be profitable for you! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Another week has come and gone. It appears that a lot of our post-election investment "euphoria" has now evaporated and we are faced with the more serious prospects of a weak dollar, high oil prices, and government debt that threatens the financial solvency of this government as we find out elected officials raising the debt limit by $800 billion. As I read one internet poster write, "I wish I could do THAT with my credit cards!" In addition, the American course in Iraq appears as difficult as ever as the evidence for a quick suppression of the violent insurgency is appearing more distant.

Well enough for the doom and gloom! Let's take a look at what I was writing here a little over a year ago. The weekend is the time I like to review the past stock picks from a year or so ago. Our discussion infers a "buy and hold" investment strategy. In reality, I employ a buy and "sell quickly on an 8% loss" and "sell slowly as the stock appreciates" so actual performance would differ from our analysis. But it helps to check those stocks in any case!

On October 6, 2003, I posted Fargo (FRGO) on Stock Picks at a price of $14.82. FRGO closed at $14.42 on 11/19/04 for a loss of $(.40) or (2.7)%.

On October 19, 2004, FRGO reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net sales came in at $19.6 million, up from $17.1 million the prior year. Net income was $2.3 million or $.18/share, compared with $2.5 million or $.19/share the prior year. The revenue growth was nice, but I prefer to see earnings growth as well!

I posted InterParfums (IPAR) on Stock Picks on 10/6/03 at a price of $10.98. IPAR closed at $15.10 on 11/19/04 for a gain of $4.12 or 37.5%.

IPAR reported 3rd quarter 2004 results on 11/10/04. During the quarter, sales rose 17% to $67.1 million from $57.4 million a year ago. (Adjusting for currency fluctuations, the growth was only 11% but still strong!) Net income declined 14% to $4 million from $4.7 million, diluted eps was $.20/share compared with $.23/share last year. Again, we have a report with growing revenue but declining earnings. The overall stock performance has been solid from a year ago, but the latest report gives me some concern, imho.

On October 7, 2003, I posted CVS Corp. (CVS) on Stock Picks at a price of $33.57. CVS closed at $45.80 on 11/19/04 for a gain of $12.23 or 36.4%.

On November 4, 2004, CVS reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net sales for the quarter ended 10/2/04 increased 24% to $7.91 billion from $6.38 billion. Same store sales for the quarter grew 5.2%. This was led by "front-end" same store sales increased 1.8% with pharmacy same store sales increasing 6.8%. However, net earnings for the quarter decreased 1.7% to $184.6 million or $.44/diluted share compared with net earnings of $187.8 million or $.46/diluted share last year. However, $.07 of this decline was due to the Eckerd qcquisition. The company is bullish about the rest of the year and raised guidance for 2004. A solid earnings report and an increased guidance are two elements for solid stock price appreciation in my humble opinion!

On October 7, 2003, I picked Regis Corp. (RGS) for Stock Picks at a price of $35.17. RGS closed at $45.30 on 11/19/04 for a gain of $10.13 or 28.8%.

RGS reported 1st quarter 2005 results on October 27, 2004. Consolidated revenues increased 10% to $506 million from $461 million last year. Same store sales increased 0.9%. First quarter net income edged up 2% to $25.5 million or $.55/diluted share. Regis pointed out that hurricane disruptions dropped revenue in the quarter by $4 million. These results were positive, the stock is holding its price well, but I like to see stronger revenue and earnings growth in the companies we hold!

On October 8, 2003, I posted Ceradyne (CRDN) on Stock Picks at a price of $30.50. CRDN split 3:2 on 4/8/04 and oour resultant selection price was actually $20.34. CRDN closed at $47.63 for a gain of $27.29 or 134.2%.

On 10/28/04, CRDN reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Sales for the third quarter 2004 jumped 108.3% to $56.3 million from $27 million the prior year. Net income increased to a record $7.3 million or $.44/diluted share compared with net income of $3.3 million or $.21/share, a greater than 100% increase, in the third quarter in 2003. On a more somber note, the company announced that the CEO would be reducing some of his responsibilities due to illness, however, the company raised guidance for earnings and sales for the rest of 2004. Very strong earnings and revenue reports along with raised guidance is everything an investor could ask for! (However, even great earnings and revenue growth aren't much for a CEO or anyone, if you have problems with your help, and I certainly wish the CEO the best of health for the future!)

On October 9, 2003, I posted NetGear (NTGR) on Stock Picks at $17.88/share. NTGR closed on 11/19/04 at $15.62/share for a loss of $(2.26) or (12.6)%.

On October 28, 2004, NTGR reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net revenue for the quarter increased 34% to $101.2 million compared with $75.8 million for the same quarter ended September 28, 2003. GAAP net income was $5.9 million or $.18/diluted share compared to a net loss of $(4.0) million or $(.15)/diluted share last year. This was a strong quarter overall, but the stock price is a bit behind where I selected this stock for this blog!

Finally, on October 10, 2003, I posted Infosys Technologies Ltd (ADR) (INFY) on Stock Picks at $77.40. INFY split 2:1 on 7/7/04, so our effective pick price was actually $38.70. INFY closed on 11/19/04 at $65.51 for a gain of $26.81/share or 69.3%.

On October 12, 2004, Infosys announced quarterly results. For the quarter ended September 30, 2004, revenues came in at $379 million, up 51% from the corresponding quarter last year. Earnings were up almost 50% from $.25/share to $.36/share this year. These were great results! More recently, Microsoft announced a partnership with Infosys as well as with WIPRO, another Stock Picks selection.

So how did we do the week of October 6, 2003 in picking stocks? Well, of our seven selections, there were two losses: (2.7)% loss with Fargo, and a (12.6)% loss with NetGear, and five gains ranging from a 28.8% gain with Regis, and a fabulous 134.2% gain with Ceradyne. The average gain for the seven stocks was an average gain of 41.6%.

THAT was a FABULOUS performance. I only wished I OWNED those stocks! PLEASE remember that past performance is NO guarantee of future stock price performance, and that I am an amateur investor so PLEASE consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information from this website. Again, I thank you for stopping by and wish you the best for the rest of the weekend and the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday!

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com .

Bob