Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
It is Sunday morning and most of my family is still sleeping. What a great time to blog! I wanted to get to this usual entry and check on past stock picks while there was a bit of available time for me to do this. I had dinner last night with a bunch of my friends and David H. asked me whether I actually typed all of this stuff I put into my blogs or whether it was more of a 'cut and paste' I guess you would say. I explained to David that yes, I enter all of these words one letter at a time you could say. I am glad that I took typing back at Palms Junior High years ago.
Last weekend I reviewed stock picks from the week of November 14, 2005. Moving ahead a week, let's take a look at the week of November 21, 2005. I know this is more than a year ago, and I probably should change the name of these reviews, but when I started, it was closer to a year....but you know how one busy weekend leads to another :). Enough excuses, on with the review!
By the way, as the last couple of entries point out, I recommend and employ a very disciplined system of selling my holdings both on 'good news' and 'bad news'. That is, if a stock declines or announces what I believe to be fundamentally bad news, then I aggressively sell those stocks at either the market price (if it is an announcement) or predetermined price declines on the way down. Also, I sell my holdings slowly (now moving to 1/7th position sales) at predetermined appreciation points on the way up. For the purpose of this review, I continue to use a 'buy and hold' assumption that would greatly affect the performance of stocks when compared to a disciplined portfolio management strategy.
Why do I do this then? Simply because it is easier in a review just to assume you purchased shares at the listed price and then I can go and look up the current price. But take all of this in mind. You will note that I do often have stocks that I pick that decline greater than 8%, as well as stocks that appreciate more than 30%. Both of these holdings would be subject to sales in my own portfolio. Either complete sales on the way down, or partial sales on the way up. But for the ease of analysis, let's take a look at these stocks discussed during that week in November, 2005, and find out what happened to them!
On November 21, 2005, I picked Bentley Pharmaceuticals for Stock Picks when the stock was trading at $17.92. BNT closed at $8.66 on April 5, 2007, for a loss of $(9.26) or (51.7)%.
On March 1, 2007, Bentley announced 4th quarter financial results. Consolidated revenues for the quarter came in at $27.1 million, up 7% from $25.2 million in the same quarter in 2005. Net income for the quarter actually rose to $4.4 million or $.19/diluted share up from $3.7 million or $.16/diluted share a year ago. However, this years quarter was favorably impacted with a legal settlement that had a favorable income tax impact of $2.7 million. Thus, removing this one-time gain from this year, resulted in a net income of $1.7 million, down from last year. With increasing revenue and decreasing earnings,
BENTLEY PHARMACEUTICALS (BNT) IS RATED A HOLD
Let's take a look at the chart.
On November 22, 2005, I posted Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at $45.33. BCSI closed at $35.72 on April 5, 2007, for a loss of $(9.61) or (21.2)% since posting.
On March 28, 2007, Blue Coat announced restated financial results for 2007. Net revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2007, the latest quarterly report, came in at $47.1 million, up from net revenue of 435.5 million in the same quarter in 2006. On a GAAP basis, earnings came in at 'break-even' with net profit of only $42,000 or essentially $.00/share, compared with net income of $.20/diluted share in the same period in 2006. With the strong growth in revenue, and the 'clouds' surrounding this company with the extensive restatement, and the decrease in earnings year-over-year which are really hidden in the financial reporting, at best, I rate
BLUE COAT SYSTEMS (BCSI) IS A HOLD
Let's take a look at the chart from StockCharts.com:
On November 22, 2005, I posted Morningstar (MORN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at $32.76. I also purchased shares in Morningstar and currently own shares of MORN in my Trading Account. MORN closed at $52.11 on April 5, 2007, for a gain of $19.35 or 59.1% since posting.
On February 22, 2007, Morningstar announced 4th quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenues came in at $87 million, a 43% increase over the revenue of $60.7 million in the same quarter in 2005. Net income was $13.6 million or $.29/diluted share up from $10.1 million or $.22/diluted share in the fourth quarter 2005.
With the the solid quarterly report,
MORNINGSTAR (MORN) IS RATED A BUY
Let's take a look at the "Point & Figure" chart on Morningstar from StockCharts.com:
On November 23, 2005, I posted Drew Industries (DW) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $29.71. Drew closed at $28.77 on April 5, 2007, for a loss of $(.94) or (3.2)%.
On February 13, 2007, Drew reported 4th quarter 2006 results. Net sales for the fourth quarter declined 24% to $138 million from $181 million last year. Net income decreased by more than 50% to $3.6 million from $9.3 million or $.17/diluted share from $.43/share the prior year.
With the sharp drop in revenue and income,
DREW (DW) IS RATED A SELL
Let's take a look at the "Point & Figure" chart on Drew Industries from StockCharts.com:
Even though I have rated this stock as a "sell" and the latest quarterly result shows sharp drops in both earnings and revenue, this graph actually looks encouraging as the stock appears to be holding the support levels and even appears to be moving higher, likely in anticipation of improved results in the future.
Finally, on November 25, 2005, I posted Total System Services (TSS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $22.04. TSS closed at $32.57 on April 5, 2007, for a gain of $10.53 or 47.8%.
On January 16, 2007, TSS reported 4th quarter 2006 results. Total revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, increased 24.8% to $503.9 million compared with $420.7 million in the same quarter last year. Net income increased 75.2% to $87.1 million from $49.7 million last year. Diluted earnings per share increased 75.8% to $.44/share up from $.25/share last year.
The company beat expectations of earnings of $.26/share on revenue of $440 million. Excluding a one-time Bank of America contract termination fee, the company raised guidance in earnings to between 14-17%, from prior range of 8-10%.
With the strong growth in both revenue and earnings, and beating expectations as well as raising guidance,
TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES (TSS) IS RATED A BUY
Let's take a look at the"Point & Figure" chart on Total System Services (TSS) from StockCharts.com:
So how did I do with these stock picks during the week of November 21, 2005. It certainly was a mixed picture. The average performance of these stocks was a gain of 6.16%.
Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at email@example.com. Also, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website, where you can hear me talk about many of the same stocks I write about here on Stock Picks Bob's Advice!
Have a wonderful Easter Sunday!