Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
One of the things I try to do on weekends is to review past stock selections to see how they would have turned out if I had purchased stock in these companies. This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy. In practice, I advocate and employ a disciplined portfolio strategy that sells stocks quickly and completely on price declines and slowly and partially as the stock appreciates. This difference in strategy would certainly affect investment performance.
Let's take a look at the three stocks I discussed during the week of September 26, 2005.
On September 26, 2005, I posted Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $15.34. RMCF closed at $13.90 on February 2, 2007, for a net loss of $(1.44) or (9.4)%.
On January 4, 2007, RMCF reported 3rd quarter 2007 results. For the quarter ended November 30, 2006, revenues climbed 13.7% to $9.1 million compared to $8.0 million in the same quarter the prior year. Net earnings climbed 19.4% to $1.3 million, compared to the $1.1 million in the same period last year. Diluted eps climbed 23.5% to $.21/share from $.17/share in the prior year.
On September 28, 2005, I posted Paychex (PAYX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $37.25. Paychex closed at $40.44 on February 2, 2007, for a gain of $3.19 or 8.6% since posting.
On December 20, 2006, Paychex announced 2nd quarter 2007 results. For the quarter ended November 30, 2006, the total revenue came in at $454.9 million, a 14% increase over the $399.8 million reported in the same period last year. Net income came in at $132.7 million or $.35/diluted share, up 18% over the net income of $112.6 million or $.30/diluted share last year. The company beat expectations on earnings which had been estimated to come in at $.34/share, but missed slightly on revenue which had been estimated by analysts at $456 million.
Finally, on September 29, 2005, I posted Cantel Medical (CMN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $22.37. Cantel closed at $16.10 on February 2, 2007, for a loss of $(6.27) or (28)% since posting.
On December 7, 2006, Cantel reported earnings for the quarter ended October 31, 2006. Sales came in at $50.5 million, up 6% from the sales of $47.8 million reported in the same quarter in 2005. Net income was $1.7 million or $.11/diluted share, down from $2.2 million or $.13/diluted share the previous year. The company missed expectations of $.12/share on earnings, but beat sales consensus of $48.3 million.
Reviewing the chart shows the already evident technical weakness. Certainly, I should avoid "picking stocks" that show this type of weakness regardless of their fundamentals in the future if at all possible.
So how did I do with these three stocks from that week in September, 2005? In a word, mediocre. The three stocks had an average loss of (9.6)%. Clearly, there is nothing magical about what I write. The stocks I cover have the potential of losses so this speaks well against blindly following these "picks" yet the potential of limiting losers and keeping winners is still the redeeming element.
Thanks again for visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site. It is certainly time for a podcast, now if I can only find the time :).
Updated: Sunday, 4 February 2007 6:21 PM CST