Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

It is hard for me to believe that I am approaching my fifth anniversary here on this blog.  My first entry was posted back on May 12, 2003.  And since then I now have a total of 1,766 entries (not including this one).  Needless to say, it is hard to find entries when there are so many to go through!  And it is even harder to assess how all of these stocks discussed and revisited are doing.  With that in mind, I started a new entry called "Long-Term Review" and have been trying to dig back into the early days of the blog and share with you how those stocks all turned out.

They haven't all been profitable.

My last long-term review was done on October 21, 2007, when I reviewed NVR as my 'long-term review #14' from May 23, 2003.  My next stock picked on the blog was Dearborn Bancorp (DEAR) which I wrote up on May 27, 2003.

I wrote:

"May 27, 2003

Dearborn Bancorp (DEAR)

 

It is after the close. I like to post mid-day if possible but yikes I have to make a living too! Got back to my office and saw the market was up some 179 points today at the close. And our stocks did great. Looking at last week's pick of SYNO, boy was that ever timely. I know I broke my rules buying it but sometime you just have to!

Looking at our lists of greatest % gainers on the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX, I have come across a bank. Dearborn Bancorp in particular. I do not, nor does anyone in my family own any shares...nore do I plan to buy at this time.

Dearborn had a GREAT day closing at $22.50 on the day, up $3.00 or 15.38%. That's a lot better than my CD at Wells Fargo which auto-renewed this past month at 0.8%....after-hours the stock is up further to $23.00 or up $.50 or another 2.22%. So what is the news?

Today, Dearborn announced a 5% stock dividend. Doesn't really mean any cash in your pocket....in reality stock dividends are dilutional....but psychologically, in the strong market, I guess someone thought it was a pretty good idea.

In addition, on April 16th, Dearborn Bancorp, 'the holding company for Community Bank of Dearborn', reported earnings of $580,000 for the quarter ending 3/31/03. This 'represented a 21.6 percent increase over the Corporations cearnings of $477,000 in the same quarter of 2002.' per the NYTimes on the Web. Fully diluted, eps was $.20 vs $.18 a little over a 10% increase.

Total assets increased 35.2% during the same period and total deposits were up 36.2%, and total loans grew by 38.1% in the same period. This bank is making money! Technically the stock has been quite strong the past few months.

Looking at Morningstar for a 5 year review, we see that revenues have grown from $5.7 million in 1997, to 8.8 million in 1998, 10.2 million in 1999, 13.3 million in 2000, 16.0 million in 2001 and 18.7 million in trailing twelve months.

EPS have grown the last four quarters (prior to current reported quarter) by 44.64%, 61.54%, 199.58% and 58.66%. We do not have a cash flow assessment on this on Morningstar.

There may be other people who are better at assessing bank stocks which have their own group of analysts. However, on our little system, Dearborn showed up today on the list and it deserves a mention! Bob"

Dearborn (DEAR) has had a series of 5% stock dividends.  Thus adjusting for multiple splits we get an adjusted pick price of $22.50 x 100/105 (2003) x 100/105 (2003) x 100/105 (2004) x 100/105 (2004) x 100/105 (2005) x 100/105 (2006) x 100/105 (2006) = $15.95.

Anyhow, DEAR closed at $6.99 for a loss of $(8.96) or (56.2)% since posting.

How did they do in the latest quarter?

On January 15, 2008, Dearborn Bancorp (DEAR) reported 4th quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2007, net income was $398,000 or $.05/diluted share, compared to net income in 2006 during the same period of $2,252,000 or $.29/diluted share.

What about longer-term?

Checking the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" on DEAR, we find that revenue has continued to increase from $12 million in 2002 to $29 million in 2006 and $34 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings, however, peaked at $1.20/share in 2005 from $.66/share in 2002.  Earnings dipped to $1.17/share in 2006 and down to $.59/share in the TTM.

Outstanding shares have increased from 4 million in 2002 to 7 million in the TTM.  This is o.k. in light of the revenue increase, but earnings during this period, with the latest dip included, means that they are actually lower dipping from $.66/share in 2002 to $.59/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow is negative at $(34) million in 2004, $(2) million in 2005, $(53) million in 2006 and $(47) million in the TTM.

I know that we cannot really judge banking stocks in the same fashion as we do companies that make some sort of 'widget', but still, the numbers are discouraging.

What about the chart?

Reviewing the 'point & figure' chart on Dearborn (DEAR) is a bit discouraging.  The stock made a terrific move higher from $3.50 in November, 2002, to a peak of $25 in June, 2004.  The stock was unable to break this level and in fact broke down entirely in July, 2007, when the stock dipped below $13.  More recently, the stock appears to have found some new level of support in the $6.00 range and may well be poised to move higher.  However, I would need to see the stock trading nort of $12.50 to find some encouragement of that idea. 

 

Summary: 

I wrote this stock up back in 2003 well before the financials melt-down.  With the negative trend in earnings, the negative free cash flow, and the dismal price chart,

DEARBORN BANCORP (DEAR) IS RATED A SELL

I am probably late at this rating, but I have to call it as I see it.  Anyhow,

Thanks so much again for visiting my blog!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my Trading Portfolio is reviewed and analyzed, my SocialPicks Page where all of my stock picks from the past couple of years are reviewed, and my Podcast Page where, if you are still up for it, you can download a radio show or two of mine discussing some of the many stocks I write about here on the website.

Wishing you all a wonderful Sunday and a good week to come!

Yours in investing,

Bob