Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
It is the weekend and I really would like to get this review done. Last weekend one thing led to another and I never got one out for the blog. And now I am another week behind....so not really a look a 'year ago'...more like a year-and-a-half! In any case, let's get down to business and review the picks from the week of October 16, 2006. Two weeks ago, I reviewed the stock picks from the week of October 9, 2006, so let's see how the two selections from the following week turned out!
These reviews assume a buy and hold strategy for investing with equal dollar amounts assumed invested. In reality, I advocate and practice a disciplined portfolio strategy--selling declining stocks quickly and completely and selling appreciating stocks slowly and partially. This difference would of course affect performance and should be taken into consideration when considering these performance evaluations.
On October 16, 2006, I posted Angeion (ANGN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $10.75/share. ANGN closed at $6.26 on May 9, 2008, for a loss of $(4.49) or (41.8)% since posting. I do not own any shares or options in Angeion.
On March 17, 2008, Angeion (ANGN) reported 1st quarter 2008 results. For the quarter ended January 31, 2008, the company reported revenue of $7.5 million and a net loss of $(675,000) or $(.17)/diluted share, compared to revenue of $10.6 million and income of $489,000 or $.12/diluted share last year.
With this poor quarterly pereformance,
ANGEION (ANGN) IS RATED A SELL
Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on Angeion, we can see that revenue growth peaked at $39 million in 2007 and has come in at $35 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM). Earnings peaked at $.38/share in 2006, dipped to $.24/share in 2007 and is at a loss of $(.05)/share in the TTM.
Free cash flow remains positive at $1 million. And the balance sheet remains solid.
Reviewing the 'point & figure' chart on Angeion from StockCharts.com, we can see that the stock peaked in January, 2007, at $18.50/share only to decline with an acceleration in the drop in April, 2007, when the stock broke through support at the $14.50 level. The stock is currently struggling to find a new level of support at the $6 level and has some 'work' to do to get above resistance and into new positive territory.
On October 19, 2006, I posted Alliance Data Systems (ADS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $60.43. ADS closed at $59.11 on May 9, 2008, for a loss of $(1.32) or (2.2)% since posting. I do not own any shares nor do I own any options in Alliance Data Systems.
On April 23, 2008, Alliance Data Systems (ADS) reported 1st quarter 2008 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2008, revenue increased 7% to $499.3 million vs. $466.3 million for the same quarter in 2007. Income dipped 3% to $62.7 million in the quarter vs. $64.7 million or $.78/share down from $.80/diluted share in the prior year. (These results were adversely affected by the one-time costs associated with the cancelled sale of the company to the Blackstone Group.)
Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on ADS, we can see that revenue growth is intact, earnings have dipped in the trailing twelve months and 2007, shares are stable, free cash flow is solid, and the balance sheet appears adequate.
With most of the financial data intact,
ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS (ADS) IS RATED A HOLD
Let's take a look at the chart.
Reviewing the "point & figure" chart on Alliance from StockCharts.com, we can see the recent sharp decline in price performance from a peak at $80 in October, 2007, to a low of $40 in January, 2008. The stock is fighting back and recently broke through a resistance level but has a lot of 'work to do' to get back into a positive technical pattern (imho).
So how did I do with these two stock picks from the week of October 16, 2006? In a word, mediocre! Both declined in price from the selection price and had an average decline of (22)% since posting!
I do believe that these types of stock performance support my own belief in the need for disciplined management of holdings and that the 'buy and hold' proposition is far too risky for me!
Thank you again for dropping by! I hope you all have a great weekend. If you get a chance be sure and drop by my Covestor Page where you can monitor my own trading portfolio (which has been very stable for the past month or so), my SocialPicks Page where you can view my past stock picks and how they have been doing at least from early 2007, and my Podcast Page where you can listen and download mp3's that I have put together on some of the many stock picks on this blog!
If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.
Yours in investing,
Bob