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Wednesday, 23 June 2004
June 23, 2004 NVE Corp (NVEC)
Hello Friends! The market started out sloppy and grew stronger into the close. I don't know the significance of that but it sounds optimistic to me! Anyhow, if this is your first time on the blog, welcome to my world! If you are a returning visitor, well THANKS for coming back...and be sure to return often. As you probably know, I am an AMATEUR investor, so PLEASE do your own investigation of all stocks discussed on this blog and PLEASE discuss all ideas with your own PROFESSIONAL financial advisors!

Well I was scanning the lists of % gainers today, and I came across NVE Corporation (NVEC)...which I could almost have sworn I had listed here once already....you know I am NOT sure how many stocks I have reviewed on this blog...but it is a load of 'em! NVEC had a nice day today, closing at $36.61, up $2.36 or 6.89%. It had traded as high as $40.64 during the day...so it actually traded off its highs into the close.

According to the Yahoo profile, NVEC "...develops and sells devices using spintronics, a nonotechnology the Company helped pioneer, which utilizes electron spin rather than electron charge to acquire, store and transmit information." Yahoo goes on to point out that "NVE is a licensor of spintronic magnetic random access memory technology (MRAM)." Pertinently, NVEC announced yesterday that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office issued the company a patent "for an innovative type of MRAM." According to the news report, "The invention therefore has the potential to significantly reduce MRAM write currents...." and "...could enable MRAM cell densities comparable to those of DRAM or Flash." PLEASE do not ask me to explain the difference between MRAM and DRAM....heck I can barely PRONOUNCE those words...but this memory thing was something the 'street' liked and the stock has reacted positively.

Looking for the latest quarterly report, I found that NVEC reported 4th quarter 2004 results on April 28, 2004. Revenue for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2004, came in at $3.21 million, an increase of 23% over last year's $2.6 million in the same quarter. Net income came in at $789,670 or $.16/diluted share compared with last year's $160,164 or $.04/diluted share.

Looking longer-term at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we see that revenue growth has been a bit erratic, increasing from $5.5 million in 1999 to $11.4 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have been all over the place but dropped to a loss of $(.60)/share in 2002, and have increased steadily since then with $.33/share reported in the TTM (trailing twelve months).

Free cash flow which was $0 in 2001 $(1) million in 2002, $0 in 2003, turned back positive to $1 million in TTM.

The balance sheet looks just fine with $6.7 million in cash and $2.5 million in other current assets as compared to $1.6 million in current liabilities and only $.1 million in long-term liabilities per Morningstar.

What about 'valuation'? Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo we can see that this really IS a NANO company with a market cap of just $164.53 million. The trailing p/e is at 82.64...and Yahoo has a forward p/e of 0...so I am not sure what THAT means....there is no PEG...when we get to tiny companies, there just aren't enough analysts that follow them...needless to say, with the rapid growth, the PEG can't be as bad as the P/E!

Yahoo reports only 4.49 million shares outstanding with 2.10 million of them that float. I personally do NOT own any shares of this issue...there are apparently 1.60 million shares out short as of 5/10/04...representing 76.14% of the float (!)....but the volume of shares traded is only 2.178 days....so I guess the trading volume is rather good for a stock of such limited float (?).

No cash dividend is paid...and in November, 2002, this company actually did a REVERSE 1:5 split.

What about 'technicals'?




This company actually peaked out at about $69/share in January, 2004, and has traded lower fairly steadily since then. Recently, with the current rise especially, it is challenging a resistance level at about $41. Would like to see it break through that area...to suggest it had reversed the downward spiral. Certainly, the stock is not at this time ahead of itself or technically extended like a lot of stocks we examine.

What do I think? This is a fascinating stock and if you like the idea of a NANO company....well then this might be the ticket. The recent revenue and earnings growth looks nice, the free cash flow and balance sheet looks terrific....but I cannot tell much about valuation...and I am a little concerned about the technicals. Besides, I personally DO NOT HAVE ANY MONEY lol.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:25 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Wednesday, 23 June 2004 6:19 PM CDT
Monday, 21 June 2004
A Reader Writes "Have you heard of any free, thorough stock screener sites?"

Hello friends! I am always excited to get email...just like snail mail...except if it is SPAM. This weekend I received a nice note from Mark P. who wrote,

I really like the site, and have enjoyed it. I was wondering if you
have heard of any free thorough stock screeners maybe at a site
similiar to that of quicken's,msn,morningstar ect. but with more
options like free cash flow included?


That is a GREAT question, and quite frankly, I am not sure if I am the one to ask! However, I recently came across a wonderful list of financial links on thegoldencoast.com which I noted DOES have some free cash flow screeners....so good luck.

If you have other questions, or if other readers have questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I will try to give you the best answer I can! Remember, I am an AMATEUR investor...so always do your own homework on ideas and stocks on this website!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:58 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
June 21, 2004 Amedisys (AMED)
Hello Friends! I am sure glad you took the time to stop by and read the blog. Please remember that I am an AMATEUR investor so please do your own investigation of all investments discussed on this website, and please consult with your PROFESSIONAL investment advisors! I hope all of you had a Happy Father's Day! My daughter took me out to see "The Terminal" with Tom Hanks...and that would be my MOVIE pick! (Is this an idea for a new blog or what?) Cute flick.

I came across Amedisys (AMED) today scanning through the lists of the greatest percentage gainers. AMED closed at $30.74 today, up $2.35 or 8.28%. According to the Yahoo profile, AMED "...is a multi-state provider of home healthcare nursing services."

On May 4, 2004, AMED reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Net service revenue grew from $31.1 million in 2003 to $47.3 million in 2004. Net income grew from $1.1 million or $.12/diluted share in 2003 to $4.2 million or $.34/diluted share in 2004.

If we look longer-term at the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see that except for a dip from 1999 to 2000, revenue has grown from $97.4 million in 1999 to $142.5 million in 2003. Earnings per share have grown during this period from $.42/share to $.83/share in 2003.

Free cash flow has improved from $(12) million in 2001 to $20 million in 2003.

The balance sheet is quite good with $29.8 million in cash and $19.8 million in other current assets balanced against $34 million in current liabilities and only $7.1 million in long-term liabilities.

If we check "Key Statistics" on Yahoo, we can see that this is a small cap stock with a market cap of $378.29 million. The trailing p/e isn't bad at 29.70, the forward p/e (fye-Dec-05) is nicer at 19.21. The PEG is reasonable (imho) at 1.21.

There are 12.31 million shares outstanding and only 8.00 million of them that float. Of these, there were 869,000 shares out short as of 5/10/04 representing 10.86% of the float but only 1.814 trading days of volume.

No cash dividend is paid and no stock split is reported on Yahoo.

What about technicals?




The "Point and Figure" chart from Stockcharts.com shows a stock consolidating across 2001 and into 2003 in the $3.50 to $12.00 range. In August, 2003, AMED broke through a resistance level at about $6.00 and headed higher almost uninterrupted to the current level around $30. The graph looks strong to me.

So what do I think. Overall, I am not excited about home healthcare. Just my gut feeling. However, on a more scientific basis, the latest earnings report looks nice, the steady revenue growth is impressive, the improving free cash flow is important along with a nice balance sheet, and the technicals appear strong. Just one thing.......I do NOT have any money to BUY anything! LOL. Anyway thanks so much for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:11 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Monday, 21 June 2004 8:32 PM CDT
Saturday, 19 June 2004

Hello Friends! We have made it to another weekend. That always sounds so nice to me. But I often find my weekends just as hectic as the weekdays...just busy doing other stuff. Anyhow, thanks so much for stopping by. Please remember that I am an AMATEUR investor, that you should do your OWN research on all stocks on this website and discuss with a PROFESSIONAL investment advisor before taking any action based on information here!

As 'regulars' who visit here know, I have started using the weekend to try to look back on past picks on this blog....and see how they turned out. That way, we can figure out if what I am doing here ACTUALLY works (lol)...and which of the picks were successful. This, hopefully, will help me pick stocks better in the future! During the week of June 9, 2003, I selected nine stocks for review.

On June 9, 2003, I selected Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) for this blog at a price of $19.58. LEND closed on 6/18/04 at $28.69 for a gain of $9.11 or 46.5%.

On April 29, 2004, LEND reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Total revenues increased 50% to $119.0 million from $79.1 million the prior year and net income was $22.5 million or $1.05/diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2004, an increase of 52% over net income of $14.8 million for the prior year or $.85/diluted share for 2003. These are nice results!


On June 10, 2003, I posted Pediatrix (PDX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $38.80. PDX closed at $67.70 on 6/18/04 for a gain of $28.90 or 74.5%.

On May 4, 2004, PDX reported 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue grew 17% to $148.1 million. Earnings per share were up 25% to $.85/share. And "same-unit revenue growth" was strong at 9.7%.

I selected Packeteer for this blog on June 10, 2003 at $15.10. PKTR closed at $14.65 on 6/18/04 for a loss of $(.45) or (3.0)%.

On April 22, 2004, PKTR announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Net revenues for the first quarter ended March 31, 2004, grew 28% to $21.5 million. Net income for the quarter was $3.4 million or $.10/diluted share compared with $2.1 million or $.07/diluted share...an increase of approximately 50%.

On June 10, 2003, I posted Caremark Rx (CMX) on this blog at a price of $24.66. CMX closed on 6/18/04 at $33.10/share for a gain of $8.44 or 34.2%.

On May 6, 2004, CMX announced 1st quarter results. During the quarter, net revenues came in at $3.0 billion, a 40% increase over the prior year's results. These results included $465.1 million in revenue from AdvancePCS, a recent acquisition. Net income came in at $84.2 million vs. $63.0 million the prior year, or $.29/diluted share vs. $.24/diluted share the prior year. This company appears to be continuing in its successful "track record".

On June 11, 2003, I postede Lennar Homes (LEN) on the blog at $75.45. LEN split 2:1 on 1/21/04 making my effective pick price actually $37.73. LEN closed on 6/18/04 at $44.24 for a gain of $6.51/share or 17.3%.

On June 15, 2004, LEN reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended May 31, 2004, revenue came in at $2.3 billion, up 11%. Earnings per share came in at $1.22/share up 20% from the prior year. The 2004 estimates were also upped at that time to $5.50 from $5.30/share. More recently, on June 16, 2004, LEN reduced estimates for the upcoming quarter. They REDUCED estimated earnings for the third quarter, while at the same time upped estimates for the following quarter, the fourth quarter of the year.

WebEx (WEBX) was posted on Stock Picks on 6/11/03 at a price of $14.41. WEBX closed on 6/18/04 at a price of $19.86, for a gain of $4.45 or 30.9%.

Insofar as earnings are concerned, on April 20, 2004, WEBX announced 1st quarter 2004 results. Revenue came in at $56.3 million, a 35% increase over the first quarter 2003 results. Earnings came in at $.22/diluted share vs $.15/share the prior year. This company is doing just fine!

On June 12, 2003, I posted Oshkosh Truck (OSK) on my blog at a price of $62.50. OSK split 2:1 in August, 2003, so my net adjusted pick price was actually $31.25. OSK closed on 6/18/04 at a price of $53.35 for a gain of $22.10 or 70.7%.

On 4/27/04, OSK announced second quarter 2004 results. Sales during the quarter increased 14.3% from $453.4 million to $518.2 million in 2004. Net income increased 59.2% to $22.5 million or $.62/share, compared with $14.1 million or $.40/share last year.

I posted Charles River Associates (CRAI) on the blog at $27.95/share on June 12, 2003. CRAI closed at $31.94/share on 6/18/04 for a gain of $3.99 or 14.3%.

On 6/10/04, CRAI reported 2nd quarter 2004 results. Revenue increased 13.5% to $45.7 million from $40.2 million in the same quarter in 2003. Net income increased 42.7% to $4.0 million from $2.8 million the prior year.

Hang in There....just one more to review!

On June 13, 2003 I posted Lannett (LCI) on the blog at $21.53/share. LCI closed at $14.22 on 6/18/04 for a loss of $(7.31) or (34)%.

On 4/27/04, LCI reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Net sales increased from $11 million in 2003 to $16 million for the same quarter. However, diluted earnings per share were unchanged at $.16/share in the quarter in both years.

So how did we do? Well, I had seven stocks with gains and two with losses for an average gain of 27.9%. Not too shabby indeed! Remember, past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future performance and please consult with your investment advisors for personalized investment help.

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:25 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 20 June 2004 1:31 AM CDT
Friday, 18 June 2004
June 18, 2004 American Healthways, Inc. (AMHC)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by! I am afraid that some of you are reading this through third party sources....sort of lifting the material to other websites. I guess I can live with that...but if you wish to visit my blog stop by at . Would love to have you continue visiting right here! Remember, I am an AMATEUR investor, so as always, I must insist that you do your own confirmatory research before relying on the material on this website and PLEASE consult with your own investment advisors to make sure that all investments discussed here are appropriate for you!

Earlier today I sold a portion of my Starbucks stock at a 90% gain...thus I was able to add a position to the portfolio. I didn't waste any time :). Scanning the lists of greatest % gainers I came across American Healthways (AMHC). AMHC closed at $24.11 today, up $3.86 or 19.06% on the day. According to the Yahoo Profile, AMHC "...provides specialized care enhancement and disease management services to individuals in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Guam."

Yesterday, after the close of trading, AMHC reported 3rd quarter 2004 results. Revenues for the quarter ended May 31, 2004, increased 56% to $65.4 million from $42.8 million the prior year. Earnings per diluted share jumped 57% to $.22/share from $.14/diluted share in 2003 same quarter. In addition, AMHC RAISED GUIDANCE for the rest of 2004. These are ALL great results. As I posted previously, after selling a little SBUX on a gain, I was looking for a new position, and DID buy some AMHC earlier today!

If we examine the "5-Yr Restated" financials on Morningstar.com, we can see that revenue has grown nicely from $50.1 million in revenue in 1999 to $196.0 million in the traiiing twelve months. (With the latest quarter over $60 million, this company could have a revenue nearing $250 million for 2004). Earnings dipped to $.01/share in 2000, and since then have steadily increased to a recent $.56/share in 2003.

Free cash flow, while not steadily growing, HAS stayed steadily positive with $6 million in 2001, and $11 million in 2003. The balance sheet appears adequate, with $29.3 million in cash and $45.1 million in other current assets, easily covering the $34.9 million in current liabilities, but not enough to cover the $59.5 million in long-term liabilities as well.

How about valuation? Looking at "Key Statistics" on Yahoo, we can see that the market cap is a SMALL $784.47 million, the trailing p/e is a bit rich at 43.17, but with the fast growth rate the forward p/e is only 24.84 (fye 31-Aug-05). Thus, the PEG is downright cheap at 0.83.

Yahoo reports 32.56 million shares outstanding with 28 million of them that float. Interestingly, as of 5/10/04, there were 7.61 million shares outstanding representing 27.18% of the float or 13,329 trading days. THAT is a LOT of short shares out there....and we MAY be in the midst of s SQUEEZE as the short sellers scramble to cover. There are no cash dividends reported on Yahoo....but the stock DID split 2:1 on 12/22/03.

Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart for AMHC,


we can see that the stock has been trading lower between late 2002 and April, 2003, when it dropped from $18.50 down to about $6.00. Since then, the stock has been trading higher fairly steadily.

So what do I think? I actually LIKE this company....so much that I BOUGHT some stock! The valuation is reasonable, they are growing their revenue and earnings rapidly....it just looked like a good idea to me!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, pleaase email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:21 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 19 June 2004 8:18 AM CDT
"Trading Transparency" AMHC

Hello Friends! Well you KNOW the old story. I HATE to have a nickel in my pocket without SPENDING it! So, scanning the list of high % gainers today, I came across American Healthways, Inc., and a few moments ago, purchased 300 shares at $23.50/share. Just keeping you posted. AMHC is currently trading at $23.65, bid $23.66, and asked $23.70.

Thanks so much for stopping by!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:19 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
"Trading Transparency" SBUX

Hello Friends! Well, unfortunately I do not have much of Starbucks (SBUX), but it DID hit a sell point today. Earlier today I sold 15 shares of my 60 share position at $43.92. I had purchased these shares on 1/24/03 for $22.81/share, so this was a gain of $21.11/share or 92.5%. I have already sold 25 shares at $28.47 on 9/8/03, and another 15 shares at $35.16...so this was my THIRD sale of SBUX...and I was aiming for about a 90% gain to sell...and there it was. My next sell point will either be at 45% gain to sell out the remaining shares....or at about a 120% gain...whereby I should be selling another 1/4 of the holdings....even if it IS a tiny position now!

Well and you KNOW what that means....that means I have another NICKEL BURNING a hole in my pocket...lol...so I can start LOOKING for another position....am sitting at 21 positions now...so I have room for up to 25 in my portfolio.

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:42 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink
New Link to theGoldencoast.com

I recently had some correspondence from Greg who is working on a blog about investing that is quite informative! I have listed a link to thegoldencoast.comon the side of this blog and encourage you to visit!

Thanks so much for stopping by!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:26 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Friday, 18 June 2004 7:29 AM CDT
Thursday, 17 June 2004
"Trading Transparency" IGT

Hello Friends! Well, I was afraid of the second shoe falling....I got away from that big swoon in IGT and it bounced back into the profit column the next day...however, with the mild correction today...there goes IGT, and with it back into the red, I pulled the plug. I sold my remaining 150 shares at $34.45 a few moments ago. These shares were purchased on 11/5/03 with a cost basis of $34.60...so we weren't losing much money at all. However, having sold a portion of this investment at a gain....I sold 50 shares on 3/2/04 at $42.54 for a gain of $397.41....my strategy insists that I move up my sell point...instead of allowing an 8% loss...I move it to break even. And thus I did what I was supposed to do! (What a change!)

If you have any comments, questions, or words of encouragement, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:37 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Wednesday, 16 June 2004
June 16, 2004 Greg Manning Auctions Inc (GMAI)

Hello Friends! Well, I came CLOSE to unloading that IGT stock this morning. I wasn't paying much attention during the day to the market yesterday and didn't see that big sell-off....well the stock went into the RED and since I have already sold a portion at a gain, well in my system that means I need to unload it before I lose any money on the remaining shares...but the stock rebounded and is trading at $34.65, up $1.20 on the day...so now above my cost.

Anyhow, I sure appreciate your visit to my blog. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I will try to get back to you ASAP...usually with an entry on the blog itself. Remember, I am an AMATEUR investor, so do investigations on the stocks discussed yourself, and PLEASE consult with an investment advisor prior to making any decisions based on information on this website.

Greg Manning Auctions (GMAI) hit the lists today with a huge move of $3.50 to $15.70 representing a 28.69% gain on the day! I do NOT own any shares of this stock (unfortunately) nor do I own any options or leveraged positions. GMAI raised estimates today for its full year sales and earnings. They announced that they expect earnings for fiscal 2004 to range from $22 to $23 million up from an earlier forecast of $14 to $15 million. Revenue estimates jumped to $205 to $210 million, up from estimates of $170 to $175 million. It should be noted, that much of this growth is related to 11 acquisitions made over the past 10 months...but they are certainly doing a good job in managing these imho.

According to the GMAI website, Greg Manning Auctions "...is a global collectibles merchant and aution house network, with operations in North America, Europe, Asia, and on the internet."

On May 6, 2004, Greg Manning Auctions announced 3rd quarter 2004 results. "Aggregate" sales rose 158% to $80.9 million from $31.3 million the prior year. Revenue rose 143% to $64.5 million from $26.6 million the prior year. Earnings per share were $.23/diluted share vs. $.16/diluted share in the prior year's same quarter.

Looking at Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials we can see that revenue has grown from $77 million in 1999 to $144 million in the trailing twelve months. Earnings have been a bit erratic, dropping from $.11/share in 1999 to a loss of $(1.58)/share in 2001, but improving steadily since then to $.60/share in the trailing twelve months.

Free cash flow has been negligible with $0 in 2001, $(1) million in 2002, $(1) million in 2003 and $0 in the trailing twelve months. I would like to see this improve as the company grows...but certainly, they are not at this time burning up their available cash resources.

Balance sheet wise, they have $9.3 million in cash and $60.3 million in other current assets vs. $29.2 million in current liabilities and only $5.8 million in long-term liabilities. This is heavily biased in favor of current assets...so it looks good to me.

How about valuation? If we review "Key Statistics" on Yahoo finance, we can see that the current market cap is only $418.26 million. The trailing p/e isn't bad at 23.25, but NO forward p/e is reported. Along with this, there is NO PEG reported....so it appears analysts do not have a good handle on the five year estimated growth....however, with the explosive current upward revisions, and the low current p/e, I suspect the PEG may very well be well under 1.0...but that is just MY opinion.

Yahoo reports 26.69 million shares outstanding with 12.30 million of them that float. Of these, 5.72% of them are out short as of 5/10/04 representing 3.043 trading days of volume. No cash dividend is reported and no stock split is noted on Yahoo either.

What about Technicals?




Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart from stockcharts.com, we can see that this stock really was trading UNDER a resistance level in a downward direction throught much of 2000 and 2001, and then in July, 2003, broke out of a resistance level of $3.25 and has been trading strongly higher above its support level since then. Looks fine to me!

So what do I think? I am a bit concerned about the large volume of acquisitions that is driving the numbers...I am not sure about the internal growth...one could say the "same store sales growth" if this was a retail stock. However, the growth is still coming down to the bottom line...they are managing their acquisitions well and growing the company, the earnings look great, the revenue growth is fantastic, the free cash flow is mediocre at best...but the balance sheet looks nice as does the technicals and valuation....so overall this is a pretty stock if perhaps a touch speculative imho. Unfortunately, I do NOT have any cash to spend...am still waiting on a sale of a current position at a gain....at least a portion of a stock lol...so you know THAT song!

Thanks again for stopping by! Please feel free to leave comments right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any comments or questions.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:05 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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